coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Overbought got more overbought today, but who cares? Breadth isn't making new highs either, but who cares?

Price is rising and ultimately that's what we care about.




There is no overhead resistance on either chart.



Breadth remains bullish, but tracking sideways.

With NAAIM heavily bulled up, this rally could have some serious legs. Their sentiment can linger in one direction for many weeks. We'll have to see, of course, but it's possible.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The last day of August saw the market close mixed, though it was only because a late day sell-off took some of the indices out of positive territory. It wasn't anything unusual.




The charts continue to look very bullish, though overbought.



Breadth remains so-so, though still bullish.

The smart money is bulled up, so I see no reason not to expect more upside. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls notched some good gains last week as all 3 TSP stocks saw price rise significantly. Especially the S&P 500, which captured a weekly gain of 3.29%.




The DWCPF has finally joined the S&P 500 in attaining a new all-time high. It lags the S&P 500 overall, but it's doing well regardless. I note that RSI is overbought on both charts; especially the S&P 500.

Is this a problem?

NAAIM doesn't think so.



Breadth rose on Friday and remains bullish; though breadth overall has not been hitting fresh highs despite the rally in the indicies. That's not an issue, just an observation.

NAAIM (smart money) is heavily bulled up and that's our key indicator in terms of market risk. There are a lot of negative headlines out there (nothing new, really), but as long as the smart money is bullish I would say that we should be too (but not complacent).

TSP Talk came in bulled up from the previous week and is now more aligned with the NAAIM reading.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The melt-up continued today, though it was on the volatile side.




Price on the S&P continues to eke higher, while price on the DWCPF is now testing resistance.



Breadth is not advancing (no new highs), so the overall rally in the broader market is not seeing as broad a segment of stocks participating. It's not necessarily bearish, but I think it is unusual.

And as I posted earlier today, NAAIM came in a bit more bullish. As long as they remain this bullish, I don't see much chance for any serious selling pressure.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

As bullish as NAAIM has been of late, they are even more bullish after this morning's reading. I don't have to tell you what that means. :smile:

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Coolhand's Account Talk

Of late, it's been an uneven rally and it's showing up in the breadth reading. Is it of concern? I don't think so. Not as long as you are in index funds.




And it's the S&P 500 in particular that is currently leading the DWCPF. I don't know how long that goes on. Normally, I'd expect the DWCPF to play catch up sooner or later. I have no reason not to expect that this time either. But it's not like the DWCPF isn't doing well; it's just not matching the S&P 500.



We can see the relative weakness in breadth as the signal dipped even as the S&P 500 continued to rally. I am not looking at this as a warning sign, either.

Tomorrow we get a fresh NAAIM reading. We'll soon see if they have any concern over the market divergences.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

After some negative/sideways action early on, price found a way to break to the upside in the afternoon session and close positive on the day.




There is no resistance above on the S&P chart, but price on the DWCPF has not yet cleared resistance. I suspect it will eventually follow the S&P 500 and that it may not be much longer before it does.



Breadth was a bit weak today, but does remain bullish overall.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Price on the S&P 500 gapped higher at the open in today's trading and price remained elevated throughout the session, closing near the high day.




The DWCPF has yet to push past its February high, but knocking on the door.



Breath ticked higher today and is bullish.

I remain bullish.

 

[bmneveu]

Fresh highs are likely soon.

Good call! It's still early, but futures are up quite nicely this morning.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls tacked on more gains in the C and S funds last week, though the gains for the S fund were on the modest side.




We have a fresh all-time high in the S&P 500. The DWCPF is not far behind, but it is struggling a bit.



Interestingly, breadth has been struggling the past week or so as well. I'd say there is a rotation in progress, but I don't monitor stocks to the depth like I once did. I'm just looking at the big picture and focused on price, breadth and smart money.

The TSP Talk sentiment survey remains bullish, but not as bullish as they were last week, which is somewhat interesting given that the smart money remains heavily bulled up. It's just an observation, so don't read too much into that.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The bears tried to keep it going as price gapped lower at the open, but the bulls stepped quickly after to slowly bring it back to the neutral line and by the afternoon into positive territory.




The gains weren't huge, but we got a reversal. Test of resistance is in progress once more. Above that, clear skies.



Breadth was negative again today, but price rose and that's what counts. Breadth remains bullish, but under modest pressure.

NAAIM came in relatively unchanged and remains very bullish.

I remain bullish. Fresh highs are likely soon.

 

[coolhand]

Pretty heated argument on CNBC right now over market breadth. One talking head says its terrible and that a few stocks are holding the whole thing up. Other head saying he's totally wrong and that breadth is excellent. Thought I would drop that here as we see you post breadth every day as being very good.

Is there anything on the internet that's not debated (constantly)?

I only go by the NYSE, which comprises the bulk of the market, but certainly not the whole thing. It's the closest index (for breadth) that matches the TSP funds (C, S). The chart I post of breadth has been in an uptrend for years and it is currently not far off its all-time high, which it has been hitting over and over for some time now.

Another question might be how healthy is breadth overall. Without getting into specifics, I would acknowledge that an argument can be made that it does show potential problems when taken as a whole, but breadth is not as important as price in my opinion, though they are closely related in terms of trend. And the trend is where we make our money.

 

[bmneveu]

Pretty heated argument on CNBC right now over market breadth. One talking head says its terrible and that a few stocks are holding the whole thing up. Other head saying he's totally wrong and that breadth is excellent. Thought I would drop that here as we see you post breadth every day as being very good.

 

[coolhand]

There was very little change to the NAAIM reading today, so it remains solidly bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Resistance at the February peak manifested today as price was rejected and the market fell back.




It was nothing dramatic. Price is very likely to probe resistance again very soon given the relatively moderate pullback.



Breadth has fallen off recently, but does remain bullish.

Tomorrow is Thursday and that's when we get a fresh NAAIM reading. I remain bullish.

 

[ToddB]

As always I really appreciate your insight and updates CH, keep on steaming ahead just like we want this market to do.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

While the market closed mixed on the day, the S&P 500 in particular added a modest gain.




Price is now testing resistance on the S&P from the February peak. Interestingly, there was no serious challenge from the bears as the February peak was tested. But the bulls didn't press either, so price pulled back from that peak just a bit. The DWCPF is close to testing its peak, but it isn't quite there yet.

Breadth remains bullish.

I feel pretty confident that price will eventually push pass resistance. Likely sooner rather than later, but we'll let the market tell us.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Coolhand's Account Talk

The bulls began the week with more gains.




And both charts show price getting very near the February high. A test of that high could come any day now. Volume has fallen off the past few days, but that's normal in mid-August.

Breadth ticked higher and remains bullish.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

The bulls managed to close out the week (last week) with moderate gains.




The up-trend remains intact and the charts continue to look good, but potential resistance is not far overhead now.



Breadth remains bullish.

We saw that NAAIM came in quite bullish last Thursday. TSP Talk got more bullish in the latest survey, so we are aligned with the smart money.

Let's see if price can test resistance this week. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The market traded mixed on the day, with the S&P dipping modestly, while the DWCPF closed modestly higher.




Breadth dipped, but remains quite bullish.

Today's latest NAAIM sentiment reading remained bullish.

Steady as she goes. I remain bullish.