coolhand's Account Talk

All in all, the bulls had a pretty good week last week as price bounced all the way back to the upper end of the trading range, though higher highs were hit.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

We can see that price on the S&P 500 is tracking sideways just under its 200 dma. Volume has fallen off. Price on the DWCPF is ebbing higher and closed for significant gains on the week.

NYAD.png

Breadth remains bullish.

So, NAAIM remained neutral last Thursday, but there is a tilt toward the bullish side. It just isn't pronounced enough to make it a bullish reading. There are reasons to be wary given price has yet to test the 200 dma on the S&P 500. The fact that price is near its highs is also reason (for the smart money) to not bet heavily either way. It's been about a month now that price has traded up and down in range, but the bulls are still in control.

The 200 dma may be the key to the next up-leg or another reversal to the bottom of the range (generally the 50 dma).

I remain neutral with a modest tilt to the bullish side.
 
The bears tried to take the market back down early on in the trading day, but the bulls turned it back up to erase some of the losses.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

The DWCPF actually closed marginally higher, while the S&P was thrown for a moderate loss. Still, no technical damage was done and price remains not far under the 200 dma.

NYAD.png

Breadth held up well and remains modestly bullish.

NAAIM got a bit more bullish this week, but the overall reading is still neutral. The trend remains up and that's important. If price can clear the 200 dma, we could see another up-leg. That may take some time yet, but we'll see how it goes. I remain neutral.
 
Thanks CH! Not sure to what degree the efforts to 'open up the country' for business are having, but I have to imagine as economic activity improves, so will the market. I do remember, the market is not the economy, but they are related.
 
NAAIM remains neutral. There was a bit more bearish and bullish positions indicated in the poll. But the bears are not shorting with both hands. I suspect what we are seeing from this reading is simply money managers covering both sides of the market while uncertainty remains. They are slanted toward the upside, however, which is still the trend.
 
The bulls turned it right back around after Tuesday's decline.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

In fact, price on both charts closed at a higher high. Looking at the S&P 500, we can see that price is snugged up just under the 200 dma.

NYAD.png

Breadth remains positive (bullish).

I suspect that a test of the 200 dma is coming soon. Perhaps tomorrow for the S&P 500. That is a resistance point and price is also back in the upper end of a multi-week range (yes, it's biased higher).

I continue to believe that price will eventually vault above the 200 dma, but with NAAIM going neutral last Thursday I thought it might take more time. And maybe it still will if the bulls can't keep it going. We'll know soon enough. I remain neutral, but want to be a bull.
 
After 3 positive days, the market stepped back on Tuesday. That's normal action. However, the 200 dma looms very near on the S&P 500 and that's a potential resistance area.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Not much change to the charts. We remain in somewhat of a sideways pattern right now with price sitting in the upper end of the range.

NYAD.png

Breadth remains positive, but is close to neutral.

My outlook remains the same. I am neutral with the smart money. The market needs to show us it can vault past that 200 dma (for more than a couple days).
 
In my last post, I said that the indicators were largely neutral, which included smart money (NAAIM). I also expected more up/down action as a result of the reading.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

I guess we're starting out with up action this week as the major averages tacked on big gains. That isn't a surprise given it appeared that at least a short term bottom was probably put in last Wednesday. And if you look at where price closed; the S&P 500 hit a higher high and is very close to testing the 200 dma. Price on the DWCPF hit a very marginal higher high.

The last thing I said yesterday was that while the smart money was neutral, the trend is still up. Today was a tangible reminder of this.

NYAD.png

Breadth flipped positive on the rally.

So, the big question right now is can the bulls not only sustain this rally, but do so with possible resistance at the 200 dma? I remain neutral until we see what happens in this regard.
 
The bulls gave up ground last week, but the good news is that the 50 dma appears to be support (to this point).

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Yes, it was a lower low that formed, but the 50 dma was not tested. We'll have to see if the bulls can provide some follow through upside action early this week. Momentum is rather flat.

NYAD.png

Breadth remains negative, but not by much.

As I pointed out last Thursday, NAAIM went neutral, which means the market may see up/down action for a few days. TSP Talk sentiment got more bearish and is leaning bearish overall.

Since NAAIM is my anchor reading for my overall perspective, I am also neutral at this time. The indicators favor neither bulls or bears. But remember, the trend is still up overall.
 
The bears tried to press their downside pressure, but the bulls finally stepped in and drove price back into positive territory.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

The 50 dma did not get tested, but close may be enough. I suspect a bottom is in for the moment, but the battle is likely to continue over the days ahead.

NYAD.png

Breadth remains negative.

NAAIM came in neutral, which I think bodes for continued back and forth action. They are neither bullish or bearish, so I am not looking for major moves in either direction at this time.

I think the bulls may apply more upside pressure in the short term, but I am now leaning neutral overall.
 
rangerray said:
Yes, I think you're right on the volatility, and maybe for some time to come. Basically, I think we're in a battle between those who think there will be an economic recovery and those who don't. Who do you think wins in the end?
Click to expand...

We are heading toward not just an economic recovery, but a whole new world paradigm (not the NWO). The next few years are going to be epic (biblical).
 
Yes, I think you're right on the volatility, and maybe for some time to come. Basically, I think we're in a battle between those who think there will be an economic recovery and those who don't. Who do you think wins in the end?
 
NAAIM came in a bit less bullish, which makes it 2 weeks in a row that they slowly moved toward neutral from a moderately bullish stance. So, they are now neutral. This tells me that the smart money is well aware of the battle for control of price and that because they are neutral, they are taking both short and long positions. We may be in for some volatility.
 
coolhand said:
So, what's going on with the selling? POTUS made a comment yesterday about the "rich guys" betting against the stock market. When POTUS makes public comments, they are not idle statements. The stock market is at times a major target of big money for the purpose of using it as a form of psychological optics in the never ending political war between good and evil.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/13/tru...d-be-talking-down-stock-market-to-profit.html
Click to expand...


I think it's all momentum based selling. A few of these guys make the comments (who have everything to gain), then the media follows with bold headlines that read THE SELL-OFF CONTINUES! Then the typical small-time investor, much like me, says, "Holy crap! I better sell everything. It's the end of the world!" The billionaires then just sit back and pour another bourbon.
 
Something that I noticed today. at 10:02 (approximately) EST, the market took a sharp incline on a positive trend. Take away the FAANG stocks, and nearly every other stock at 10:02 followed the exact trend until it reversed at 10:18....
 
I am looking forward to see what NAIIM report says. My personal sentiment has been bearish and I have been trying to understand the thought process on the bullish people out there.
 
The bears are certainly letting the bulls know that they are not just simply going to go away. The markets fell again today with price now testing support near the last low.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Price does remain above the 50 dma, so that's a plus for the bulls. The bulls do need to turn price back up for another run at the 200 dma or risk additional selling with a possible test of the 50 dma first. Momentum is turning down.

NYAD.png

Breadth has flipped negative.

I didn't think it would easy for the rally to go unchallenged and it isn't. NAAIM reports tomorrow and that will really help shape expectations for the next few days.

I remain bullish, but support needs to hold.
 
It was the bears turn to turn the market around today as the market started off in positive territory, but eventually succumbed to heavy selling pressure in afternoon trade.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Overall, there is still no damage to the uptrend, but we do have resistance at the current peak.

NYAD.png

Breadth is looking rather neutral now.

It may not be an easy road for the bulls to take this market higher, but easy or not I still believe it will be heading higher.

I remain bullish.
 
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