coolhand's Account Talk

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CountryBoy said:
Thanks Cool for the update on the SS, very much appreciated. :D

CB
Click to expand...

YW. ;)

Stratfor is warning that the global economic landscape may be about to change due to the global summit talks currently taking place. Nothing specific, but there's a lot that can happen right now. :worried:

I'm taking the SS sell signal very seriously. Looking to buy TZA today.
 
Red Alert: Redefining the Global System (Open Access)
Stratfor Today » April 1, 2009 | 1858 GMT

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090401_red_alert

From Europe to Turkey, world leaders are coming together this week for a slew of global summits. There is much for these world leaders to discuss: the global financial infrastructure is now up for debate, the jihadist war continues to rage in South Asia, the Russians are locked into intractable negotiations with the Americans over the boundaries of the former Soviet sphere of influence, and the Turks are returning to their great power past.

These summits are not just about photo-ops and handshakes. Taken together, this array of diplomatic meetings constitute the greatest density of decision points in the modern world since the summits that brought about the end of the Cold War. This is a time when the true colors of nation-states come out, as each fights for their political, economic and security interests behind a thin veneer of global cooperation.

With geopolitical boundaries being redrawn across the world, STRATFOR has a responsibility to penetrate the media glitz and read through the lines of diluted joint statements and press conferences to explain to our readers the core issues at stake for each player involved. Through our extensive coverage in this week’s Global Summit series, our intent has been to do just that.

Midway through the bilateral summits, we have yet to see any major surprises deviating from our assessments. In the lead-up to the G-20 summit in London, the Americans and the Germans will be at the core of the debate over how to restructure the global financial system. The Americans, the British and the Japanese believe stimulus is the way to go to put the global economy back on track, while Germany, the economic heavyweight of Europe, prefers instead to export its way out of the recession. This is not a debate that will be resolved by the end of this summit (if at all), leaving G-20 members and the struggling economies watching from the outside with the impression that they have little choice but to fend for themselves in this severe economic environment.

The Americans do not just disagree with the Europeans on economics — in spite of Europe’s enthusiasm for U.S. President Barack Obama, the EU members at the summit made clear their unwillingness to make any meaningful contributions to the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan beyond a few aid packages. With the Western coalition in Afghanistan looking more and more like a one-man show, the Americans are branching out of their post-World War II system of alliance in search of new strategic partners. The United States has found one such partner in Turkey, where Obama will be wrapping up his visit on April 6-7. This will demonstrate to allies and adversaries alike that Washington embraces a greater Turkish role in global affairs that stretch from the Islamic World to the Russian periphery.

The summits thus far have given the Russians plenty to chew on. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev came to the G-20 ready to negotiate with Obama on a slew of issues that revolve around a core Russian imperative of consolidating power in the former Soviet periphery. A look at the joint statement and press conferences from the Obama-Medvedev meetings might leave one with the impression that the Americans and the Russians are ready to cooperate, but in reality, all they could really boast about was a commitment to restart talks on nuclear disarmament, leaving a host of outstanding critical issues in limbo. It is quite apparent that the United States has its hands full, but Obama still let the Russians know that he does not intend sit back and allow Moscow to have its way with Eurasia. The Russians now have a better idea of Obama’s boundaries in these negotiations, but their priorities have not changed; Moscow still has ways of grabbing Washington’s attention.

It has been a roller coaster ride thus far, with still more to come. Before Obama makes his way to Turkey, he still has to touch base with his NATO allies in Prague. With the Russians ready to play hardball and the balance of the Eurasian landmass still in flux, these meetings will be anything but bland. Meanwhile, STRATFOR’s team of expert analysts will be working to provide their members with the analytical context to find significant meaning from these summits. A redefinition of global systems is taking place that will carry well into the future, and STRATFOR is here to provide the historical and analytical record.
 
coolhand said:
Taken together, this array of diplomatic meetings constitute the greatest density of decision points in the modern world (as this is the worst Economic Global Disaster - recession - of our lifes) My ad lib. This is a time when the true colors of nation-states come out, as each fights for their political, economic and security interests behind a thin veneer of global cooperation.
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Very good read - THANK YOU !!
 
coolhand said:
YW. ;)

Stratfor is warning that the global economic landscape may be about to change due to the global summit talks currently taking place. Nothing specific, but there's a lot that can happen right now. :worried:

I'm taking the SS sell signal very seriously. Looking to buy TZA today.
Click to expand...

You are braver than me. Those 3X leveraged ETFs scare the heck out of me. I can't watch them full time so I'm not buying any more of them. JMO Good luck & hope it does well for you.
 
Watch out for a sell the news reaction to the anticipated Mark to Market change. If the Seven Sentinels are a valid signal, I don't think we'll move higher for too much longer.
 
Looks like the SS system went on a buy signal today. On Traders Talk IYB was talking about the oddity of a whipsaw with this system. I got out a few days ago when it went to a sell and I'm leaning towards buying in tomorrow based on his signal. Any comment, Coolhand?
 
I'm thinking of buying back in tomorrow as well. Been sitting G with chump change in CSI for about 2 weeks.
 
akpackfan said:
Looks like the SS system went on a buy signal today. On Traders Talk IYB was talking about the oddity of a whipsaw with this system. I got out a few days ago when it went to a sell and I'm leaning towards buying in tomorrow based on his signal. Any comment, Coolhand?
Click to expand...

I've been in flight a good part of the day and just now have a little time to catch up. I just read IYBs post about this.

I can tell you that most experienced traders are not having an easy time maneuvering in this market. The moves can be quick and brutal in both directions, which makes reading technicals much more challenging. Mark Young, who runs the Trader's Talk website, made some comments which are very telling with respect to the difficulty we all face in the current market environment. From Mark:

"Most bear markets follow a period of frothy economic activity or froth stock market pricing. This one was not.

Most banking problems are caused by a deteriorating economy. This time, the deteriorating economy was caused by banking problems.

This is totally unique as far as modern investing is concerned. The solutions to this problem are likely to be unprecedented. The whole evil of it is that it seems clear that things that are the anathema to people like me are the very things that we must embrace to keep more innocents from being harmed. In fact, this evil is why people like me have opposed any implied or real government guarantees of ANY financial instruments or loans. Inevitably, reality becomes divorced from the situation...until it isn't. Hopefully, the backlash down the road can address the root causes.

In any case, to the best of my understanding (which is amazingly poor, I might add--and that disturbs me, considering that this is the first time I've not had a good handle on the solution to an economic problem), what the Feds are and have been doing by pumping money into the economy is the best action. It's NOT sustainable, but for goodness sake, the point is to get out of the crisis quickly. The thing about an emergency situation is that you want to get out of it ASAP.

I'm thinking that the stimulus would have been an utter fiasco and disaster in any normal recession no matter how severe, but in this situation, the deflationary and cautionary offsets may well put something of a cap on the damage. The pumping of money, to my eye, is likely to lead to inflation, but that's acceptable. Deflation in the current context would be disasterous.

The good news is that if confidence is returned, a lot of liquidity is going to get sopped up by the stock market. Real estate will take some, too, but not a ton. I suspect that taxes are basically going to take up the rest."
 
akpackfan said:
Looks like the SS system went on a buy signal today. On Traders Talk IYB was talking about the oddity of a whipsaw with this system. I got out a few days ago when it went to a sell and I'm leaning towards buying in tomorrow based on his signal. Any comment, Coolhand?
Click to expand...

Keep in mind that IYB is not sure which signal is valid right now; buy or sell.

We've had a good run-up, and while it could certainly continue, we could also get whipsawed on a quick reversal.

I suspect the Intermediate Term may still be on a buy, but the short term has me concerned. I don't want to buy in now and quickly take a big loss.

I'm not ready to make a move at present. We are in a volatile market and only have two bullets.
 
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