coolhand's Account Talk

The market closed lower overall last week. I consider the weakness to be part of the climb higher. We need consolidation here and there to keep it going (historically).

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Price on the S&P 500 closed above its 50 dma. There is plenty of resistance to get to the next big hurdle, which is the 200 dma, but first we need to see price remain above the 50. The DWCPF closed almost neutral for the week. Momentum remains flat to modestly positive.

NYAD.png

Breadth flipped bullish again, but it's still moving sideways overall.

I said on Thursday that NAAIM went from bearish to a neutral reading. No slam dunks on the upside with this reading, but it's a good sign for the bulls just the same. TSP also went from bearish to neutral.

I am neutral to modestly bullish. There does seem to be a floor under this market even as price is struggling to go higher (in the overall market).
 
The market was largely flat on somewhat volatile trading today.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

We can see that price on the S&P 500 is testing the falling 50 dma again and closed just under it. The DWCPF may test it simply when the average falls down to the top of the trading channel if it does not break out first. Momentum is rather flat.

NYAD.png

Breadth rose, but remains neutral.

The main data point for today is somewhat good news for the bulls. NAAIM had a fairly good rise in bullish positions. They are not bullish overall, but I would say they went from collectively bearish to neutral now. The bulls just may get another up-leg in the days ahead on this reading. It may not be a big one, but it would certainly keep the uptrend intact.
 
The bulls bounced the market today. It seems we remain in somewhat of a trading range right now.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Price on the S&P didn't quite test the falling 50 dma, which is still an area of resistance. The DWCPF is moving sideways. Momentum has stalled.

NYAD.png

Breadth is now neutral, having pushed back through the 21 day EMA.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. I suspect they will not change much. The uncertainty about this market remains in place, though we are still technically in an uptrend. Still plenty of upside key resistance areas to slice through.

I remain neutral.
 
The selling continued today as did pressure on the oil market. But this selling still has a "controlled" feeling to it. I don't get the impression based on the action that the bears can keep this going.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

So far, price has been rejected (resistance) at the 50 dma on the S&P 500. But we may have another bull flag started, so I would expect another test at some point. Having said that, momentum is rolling over, so the bulls need to step in soon. The DWCPF is in a short term trading range with price now testing the lower part of that range.

NYAD.png

Breadth is now definitively bearish.

I am going back to a neutral stance. I would not be surprised by a run to the upside again, but I also can't rule out more weakness.
 
Yes, this market is crazy. Futures are now lower as the sell-off in the oil sector appears poised to extend losses. Can the bulls mount a response? Can they maintain the up-trend? NAAIM's bearishness does call this into question, but as I said in previous posts, they aren't shorting this market in earnest. I'm sure that reluctance is rooted in uncertainty.
 
I would like to start out today's commentary by quoting something I said yesterday as follows:

"...there is a lot happening in the financial system and I doubt many money managers are comfortable right now regardless of their sentiment. It just isn't business as usual."

Why am I pointing this out?

I suspect most or at least many of you saw what happened in the oil sector today. A historic plunge to negative prices occurred. That is a first. I can't help but think a fuse of some sort has now been lit.

Is this why NAAIM isn't embracing the rally? I won't speculate on the fallout because I suspect that the expected ramifications of such an occurrence may not manifest the way many money professionals may think.

For now, let's just say that this event could make the rest of this week very interesting in financial markets.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Looking at the charts, you'd never know something major occurred as price, which did go negative today, merely gave back a portion of last week's gains, and that isn't unexpected or unusual.

NYAD.png

Breadth continues to flip back and forth and is now negative once more. Perhaps we can look at this reading as neutral given the action.

Futures are positive as I write this, but who knows how the market opens tomorrow. It would not surprise me if the market rallies. It is perverse enough to do something like that.

I remain modestly bullish.
 
coolhand said:
The bulls had a pretty good week last week as all 3 TSP stock funds closed with solid gains, but it was the C fund that tripled the gains of the S and I.
Click to expand...

The difference between the C fund and the S fund so far is that the S fund has had larger negative and positive days vs. the C fund. The difference between the C fund and the I fund was that the C fund had better positive days vs. the I fund.
 
The bulls had a pretty good week last week as all 3 TSP stock funds closed with solid gains, but it was the C fund that tripled the gains of the S and I.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

We can see that price on the S&P is now testing its 50 dma. It is in a solid uptrend. The DWCPF closed at a high (on the current up-leg), but has yet to test its 50 dma. Momentum remains positive on both charts.

NYAD.png

Breadth flipped positive again on the NYSE.

Our TSP sentiment went bearish again, which is in alignment with NAAIM, which remained bearish with last Thursday's reading. They are not falling over themselves to short this market, so avoid taking this reading as more bearish than it is. The fact is, there is a lot happening in the financial system and I doubt many money managers are comfortable right now regardless of their sentiment. It just isn't business as usual.

I went modestly bullish late last week and remain modestly bullish right now. I really don't think that the bears can mount anything of significance to the downside at this time.
 
I jumped in today with an itchy trigger finger on the G or F switch back.
S$P embedded for 4 days now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The market remained weak today, but it isn't exactly bearish action.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Neither chart shows price dropping all that much below the previous peak. It appears to me that the market is pausing for another push higher. What catalyst(s) might do that? How about reopening the economy, which is now being seriously discussed?

Breadth remains bearish, but the charts are healthy enough in this uptrend to look past that for now.

NAAIM did not change much again. They remain overall bearish, which is at least somewhat puzzling to me. Then again, many of them probably didn't get hurt too bad by the sell-off, so they probably can afford to take a wait and see approach.

I am shifting to a modestly bullish stance.
 
The bears struck back today, preventing the S&P from testing its falling 50 dma.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

The remain in reasonable shape (if you're a bull), but resistance is not far above, so the bulls have some work to do.

NYAD.png

Breadth fell back below its 39 day ema, which flips it negative, but it may be temporary.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. We'll see if the reading shows any movement towards a more bullish stance.
 
After a moderate pullback to start out the new trading week, the market turned back up and tacked on moderate gains.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

I would think that if the market was going to retest the lows, it would have happened by now. It sure is looking like a "V" bottom. I am still wary of NAAIM being bearish, however. They could be wrong, which doesn't happen all that often.

NYAD.png

Breadth remains bullish.

I am going to remain neutral, but only because of NAAIM.
 
He said something about bringing Fed under control of Treasury, So no longer "independent"??? So I am wondering about that.

From Federal Reserve site:

"The U.S. Approach to Central Banking
The framers of the Federal Reserve Act purposely rejected the concept of a single central bank. Instead, they provided for a central banking "system" with three salient features: (1) a central governing Board, (2) a decentralized operating structure of 12 Reserve Banks, and (3) a combination of public and private characteristics.

Although parts of the Federal Reserve System share some characteristics with private-sector entities, the Federal Reserve was established to serve the public interest.

There are three key entities in the Federal Reserve System: the Board of Governors, the Federal Reserve Banks (Reserve Banks), and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board of Governors, an agency of the federal government that reports to and is directly accountable to Congress, provides general guidance for the System and oversees the 12 Reserve Banks.
Within the System, certain responsibilities are shared between the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., whose members are appointed by the President with the advice and consent of the Senate, and the Federal Reserve Banks and Branches, which constitute the System's operating presence around the country. While the Federal Reserve has frequent communication with executive branch and congressional officials, its decisions are made independently."

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/structure-federal-reserve-system.htm

Okay...here is more on very extraordinary action taken by the Fed.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200409a.htm
 
Last edited:
Nnuut, I just listened to the linked X-22 report for today. Thank you! Sounds like a great team. Yep, I do believe that team can accomplish a lot to jump the economy. I am wondering about statements about Fed Reserve being brought under control. :scratchchin
 
The market pulled back a bit today, but that doesn't hurt the current up-trend. Our sentiment survey went from bearish to neutral for the new week.

I'm keeping it short since there isn't much to add. See you tomorrow.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Stocks bounce Monday after last week's sell off
Replies
0
Views
5K
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Monday takes away Friday's big gains
Replies
0
Views
417
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - A quiet rally after a loud week
Replies
0
Views
3K
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Relief
Replies
0
Views
915
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The relief rally runs into trouble in a hurry
Replies
0
Views
972
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top