coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

http://www.businessinsider.com/2009/2/suspending-mark-to-market-accounting-the-tale-of-two-cows

 

[coolhand]

After some serious consideration, I've decided to hold my 50/50 CS position, primarily based on the seven sentinels IT signal and the fact that there's almost no flexibility in our TSP, so riding out any volatility needs to be an accepted reality.

Besides, I can't take a chance that Bullitt and Birchtree ride to the top without me. :laugh:

 

[JTH]

Besides, I can't take a chance that Bullitt and Birchtree ride to the top without me. :laugh:

Thanks for posting the link to the 7 Sins. I did get a chance to lightly read over it, but I'm not educated enough to decide how much weight this system should carry.

Time permiting, I'll have to read through it more.

Thanks again... JTH

 

[Bullitt]

I don't think it's possible for anyone to have a stronger stomach than Birch. There are one or two candidates over at TT, but I really don't think anyone can handle the G force and body blows quite like him. Dumped a few losers in my taxable account for losses even into weakness, but in hindsight, it saved another the account from another 20% loss or so.

The word's of the day in blogosphere are 'sucker's rally', 'new lows' and 'sell short'. The trend is your friend, which is down, so you can't blame them for sticking to what has worked. I didn't vote on the sentiment this week since I was out, but if I did, I would have voted bearish. I think I heard the phrase bear market rally on the nightly news last week with Brian Williams- Not a good sign.

This market has forced a lot of folks to be very short term traders these days for obvious reasons. Any nervousness or turbulence will continue to bring some selling.

 

[coolhand]

This market has forced a lot of folks to be very short term traders these days for obvious reasons. Any nervousness or turbulence will continue to bring some selling.

It's also not a good thing that many folks need cash to survive and are liquidating positions at the risk of retirement.

I opened a very small account for my daughter over 10 years ago with primerica and never made contributions to it other than the initial deposit, which was more than the minimum, but not a lot more. In that time it received dividends and capital gains too.

I received a letter from them the other day that unless I bring the account up to the minimum balance required they're going to send me a check and close the account.

In over 10 years that account has never been close to dipping below the minimum entry level, but this market has killed it.

Yeah, wall street has really earned my confidence. Send me the check guys. I'll be happy to stop doing business with you. :notrust:

 

[Birchtree]

I wouldn't close the account but would prefer to bring it up to the minimum balance - now is the time to keep those dividends working. Just think where the balance will be three years from now. And your daughter may just continue to let it ride and pass it on to her daughter.

 

[coolhand]

I wouldn't close the account but would prefer to bring it up to the minimum balance - now is the time to keep those dividends working. Just think where the balance will be three years from now. And your daughter may just continue to let it ride and pass it on to her daughter.

I have government bonds and a money market account (currently earning 4%) with my credit union that have done much better over the long term for my daughter than equities. Seems the crooks haven't found a way to exploit those.

And I didn't have to pay a 5% premium to make those purchases either.

Over the long term and using carefully picked options, cash vehicles can do very well and have the benefit of virtually no risk. I highly recommend to anyone to consider them as part of ones portfolio.

 

[Bullitt]

One of my T Rowe Price Mutual Funds dipped below the minimum so I went with the minimum monthly contribution to avoid the 'penalty fee'. I think I might switch back to just paying the penalty fee.

 

[coolhand]

One of my trusted sources had this to say about yesterday's late day profit taking:

"I note that on the ES the volume off the top was pretty lame.

Also, I noted that during the early stages of the rally on an intra-day basis, the volume on the green sticks was consistently greater than the volume on the red sticks. That seemed to be a tell.

No currently, I don't yet see any serious selling volume on the hourly, nor the 5'."

 

[coolhand]

Yep, the ship's taking on water now. In fact, it has a severe port list. Just a little further and...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/16/AR2009031600640_pf.html

 

[akpackfan]

Looks like the Seven Sentinels signal was accurate so far. Wonder how much the market has to sell off before all seven go to a sell signal?

 

[coolhand]

If the administration's grand plans continue to take heat from all sides, this rally could really, really get going.

How's those seven sentinels looking about now??

Don sez he thinks we're still in the early stages of an IT rally, so I'm staying mindful of his outlook and staying long and strong.

 

[Warrenlm]

What do you think we should be looking for as signals that a top is nearing? Also, don't underestimate Mr. Teflon.

 

[coolhand]

what are you looking for as signals that a top is nearing?

The allignment of all seven signals under specific conditions constitutes a signal and defines the context or prevailing trend of the market. Here are the individual buy/sell triggers:

TRINQ and TRIN: Daily reading below 13 Day EMA is buy mode, reading above 13 Day EMA is sell mode.

For NAMO, NYMO, NAHL, NYHL, daily reading above 6 Day EMA is buy mode, and reading below same is sell mode.

For BPCOMPQ, reading within the Bolinger Band following reading below constitutes buy mode, as do readings above and outside of BB following reading within the band. Put another way, either positive crossing constitutes buy mode. Reading within the Bolinger Band following reading above constitutes sell mode, as do readings below and outside of BB following reading within the band. Put another way, either negative crossing constitutes sell mode. It stays in buy mode or in sell mode until it recrosses in the opposited direction.

All seven must be in a sell or buy condition to complete the signal.

 

[Birchtree]

How do you tell the difference between a mere bear market rally and the real deal beginning of a new bull market - you watch how fast the sentiment changes. Count the lily padders as they shift to the bullish side - I want them to all stay safely tucked away on the lily pad. We need a strong wall of worry and 70% bears to continue.

 

[coolhand]

How do you tell the difference between a mere bear market rally and the real deal beginning of a new bull market - you watch how fast the sentiment changes. Count the lily padders as they shift to the bullish side - I want them to all stay safely tucked away on the lily pad. We need a strong wall of worry and 70% bears to continue.

I see no evidence that this is anything but a bear market rally at this point BT.

When the SS gives us that sell signal down the road, I expect you to get on that lily pad and wait for another entry signal. :nuts:

Of course you'll have to dust off the cobwebs first...

 

[WorkFE]

Coolhand I'll be watching you because I know you'll be watch the signals intently. It's all timing to keep the gains of this small rally.

Good Luck

 

[coolhand]

Coolhand It's all timing to keep the gains of this small rally.

Good Luck

Small rally? I think the S&P has already gained about 14% since the bottom and if this is only the beginning of an Intermediate Term rally, we could conceivably go much higher.

But we'll let the signals tell us how high. So far I've almost broke even for the year (down .56%).

If I'm (we're) lucky, maybe we could squeeze another 20%? Just a guess on my part, but hey, it sounds good. :toung:

 

[WorkFE]

I do expect this to move higher with some down days thrown in to shake the nervous investor. Consider how the market has been for the past 12 months I suppose "small rally" was a poor choice of words.

On 28 Jan I was riding high on top of the leader board at +5.46. In 5 weeks I was sitting at -12.17 and looking up at the lilly pad with some very powerful bino's.

I am very happy to be sitting at just under -6%. If this thing runs till the end of the week I will probably be even. Not something I thought was possible 2 weeks ago. I owe it to some very knowledgable people on this MB including you.

Thanks everyone, my wife let me move in from the shed. If I'm even by friday I'm allowed to have ice cream

 

[Birchtree]

In terms of just how big a bounce we can expect, history has shown we can expect anything from 52% and up given the present bear market is within the worst in history category. In the months ahead, the fear of being in will be replaced by the fear of being out.