coolhand's Account Talk

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robo said:
I sure would like to see a push thru 900 next week.


Take Care!
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That didn't take long. :D

Looking for more gains this week. Technicals could get folks in trouble here as this is not a typical market. Lot's of folks are now programmed to sell rallies, but that can backfire if one doesn't perceive changes in the market. You know where I'm betting my money. :cool:
 
Coolhand, Oscar's technical vid today (it's on Poolman;s thread) mentioned something that I wasn't aware of: He said "the hedge funds aren't a factor for the rest of the year. They all closed out after Thanksgiving and won't be trading until after the first of the year." This is para-phased but isn't that another plus for the bulls the rest of the month if it's true?? :rolleyes: What do you think?
 
justbizness45 said:
Coolhand, Oscar's technical vid today (it's on Poolman;s thread) mentioned something that I wasn't aware of: He said "the hedge funds aren't a factor for the rest of the year. They all closed out after Thanksgiving and won't be trading until after the first of the year." This is para-phased but isn't that another plus for the bulls the rest of the month if it's true?? :rolleyes: What do you think?
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I would think it's a plus.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/12/fleckenstein-shutting-down-short-hedge.html
 
Still IT term bullish, but ST bearish. Have to ride the roller coaster though to get to the larger gains with our restrictions. I can only go to cash now as I'm fully invested and have used both my trades. I'm up about 11% too since then, so it was a good move. If we can get past the current weakness we're seeing without damaging the technical picture, I believe we'll see an increase in strength along with higher highs. For now the trend is up.
 
coolhand said:
http://tinyurl.com/6cej6m
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I like this quote.

"A rebound in commodities would be bullish for the stock market on a near-term basis, as energy is a big weight in the indexes.

"Frankly, I am growing more optimistic with the market challenging its 50-day moving average but the indexes have to get past this technical barrier before investors take the bulls seriously, i.e., that they can do more than hold the market up for a few days ... I like what I am seeing but we aren't there yet."
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FWIW and for anyone looking for an entry point in the Short Term...

"I was looking for a fake out decline, then a rally, then the real decline late this week.

I'm not looking for a ton of weakness, but enough to scare folks and get the premium up for da boyz. It may last into tomorrow, too.

So far, no selling, but the weak handed Bears may need to be shaken loose before they sell it down.

Big jumps north of 140 on ISEE have been reliable markers for short-term sell offs in recent months."

Mark
 
Market hasn't even opened yet and we're getting that kind of weakness that tends to drop the dumb money indicators. Rally is still intact even if we get a 5% plunge today because we've got until 815'ish before we're making a lower low. Most of our up days in this rally so far have been on higher volume than yesterday's selloff, but today could be a distribution day. Distributions are just part of the game.

Looking to get some TNA at 22.50-23 area range and/or MOO at 23.75-24 area if possible today.
 
Bullitt said:
Market hasn't even opened yet and we're getting that kind of weakness that tends to drop the dumb money indicators. Rally is still intact even if we get a 5% plunge today because we've got until 815'ish before we're making a lower low. Most of our up days in this rally so far have been on higher volume than yesterday's selloff, but today could be a distribution day. Distributions are just part of the game.

Looking to get some TNA at 22.50-23 area range and/or MOO at 23.75-24 area if possible today.
Click to expand...

So far the market is playing out pretty much the way Mark thought it would. If we declined on the affirmative house bailout vote in October, I'm not so sure we'll decline on a negative senate vote over the big 3. That would be having it both ways. :rolleyes: I think we'll see a good sell-off to start the day during amatuer hour and then have a good chance to see an intraday reversal. But even if that doesn't happen, next week is a whole new ball game. This market has an awful lot of bad news already priced in.

I'm still bullish IT so the ST bearish moves don't scare me.
 
coolhand said:
In case anyone missed it...

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4668112n
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jon said:
Coolhand, the 60 minutes link seems to confirm Show-Me's Safe-Haven link.
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Talk about being late to the party. I didn't see anything new. I saw the Florida condo mess last year when I was down there for vacation. I mentioned in my thread ages ago that the lending practices that were used with sub-prime were also being used in ALT-A, Option ARM, and ofcourse Prime.
 
350zCommTech said:
Talk about being late to the party. I didn't see anything new. I saw the Florida condo mess last year when I was down there for vacation. I mentioned in my thread ages ago that the lending practices that were used with sub-prime were also being used in ALT-A, Option ARM, and ofcourse Prime.
Click to expand...

That's why I read your thread. :) You tend to stay on top of this stuff.

Of course, I might be simply trying to keep bearish levels elevated to keep the rally going. :nuts:
 
Some perspective from IYB:

"...the market is at the most IT oversold position that it's been in this entire decade. That, plus, we have massive positive divergences across the board, between the early October versus early December lows. Daily momentum is overbought, as is always the case in the early stages of an IT advance...."

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=99067
 
Just when US companies are about to report their biggest writedowns, the losses may be the strongest signal yet that it’s time to buy stocks. Companies in the S&P 500 Index are marking down assets at the fastest rate in six years, leaving operating profits 46% higher than net income in the third quarter, a level last seen in 2003 when the previous bull market began. The ballooning gap between net income and operating profit suggests companies are getting rid of their weakest businesses, setting the stage for a recovery in stocks next year. “Trough eaernings tend to coincide with a maximum level of writedowns,” said William Knapp, NY-based investments strategist at MainStay Investments, which manages $25 billion. “You will start to see profitability return once the economy turns, which will probably be in the second half of next year. The market is going to recognize that through price and activity six-plus months ahead of time.”
 
coolhand said:
Just when US companies are about to report their biggest writedowns, the losses may be the strongest signal yet that it’s time to buy stocks. Companies in the S&P 500 Index are marking down assets at the fastest rate in six years, leaving operating profits 46% higher than net income in the third quarter, a level last seen in 2003 when the previous bull market began. The ballooning gap between net income and operating profit suggests companies are getting rid of their weakest businesses, setting the stage for a recovery in stocks next year. “Trough eaernings tend to coincide with a maximum level of writedowns,” said William Knapp, NY-based investments strategist at MainStay Investments, which manages $25 billion. “You will start to see profitability return once the economy turns, which will probably be in the second half of next year. The market is going to recognize that through price and activity six-plus months ahead of time.”
Click to expand...
Coolhand, I just copied this post to the comments section of my trading plan diary. Thanks, as always, for your insightful comments on the markets!:cool::cool:

Lady
 
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