coolhand's Account Talk

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coolhand said:
Thanks. Occasionally I get those gut feelings that tell me when the market is going to move in one direction or another. Right now I'm smelling a rally. It's still a bear market, but if "da boyz" want to engineer a big move higher they've got a great set-up for it. High pessimism, high premiums, "perceived" pre-fed rally, folks wanting out of the market to end their pain, bears putting on shorts for another expected one-day wonder rally reversal. And "da boyz" are sitting on a lot of cash. They can dish out some punishment right now and make a killing.

I really like this set-up. :D
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Coolhand, The big question is how long will this rally last and can we get back to G before the bottom falls out again.:rolleyes:
 
nasa1974 said:
Coolhand, The big question is how long will this rally last and can we get back to G before the bottom falls out again.:rolleyes:
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You've got to monitor it very closely. I have a 100% position in the C fund, which I took when SPX was at 1106. I have a lot of ground to make up. But, greed is always looking for a way to exploit those leaning the wrong way. A good bear market rally can go further than many might think. Psychology and greed are market tools.

In TSP I cannot easily trade a one day rally with the volatility, so I wait till I see some follow-through. If we get that today it could be the sign we're looking for. So far we got the set-up for one.

Wish I had a crystal ball, but last time I checked Ebay was out. :D
 
So far, so good. The market is doing it's typical "waiting for the fed" dance.

There's a lot of liquidity coming into the market now and we could finally turn. I suspect this afternoons trading, post fed, will tell the story.
 
coolhand said:
You've got to monitor it very closely. I have a 100% position in the C fund, which I took when SPX was at 1106. I have a lot of ground to make up. But, greed is always looking for a way to exploit those leaning the wrong way. A good bear market rally can go further than many might think. Psychology and greed are market tools. I would agree under normal circumstances. Analyzing the charts would usually give you an indication which way the market was moving. But this market is not normal. This market will look strong or weak all day until around 4:00pm and then WHAM!! Surprise, surprise, surprise!!! Not that a lot of us agreed with the bailout but everyone was saying that the market would rally once it was passed. The market did just the opposite. Panic spread faster than the flu in a nursing home.

In TSP I cannot easily trade a one day rally with the volatility, so I wait till I see some follow-through. If we get that today it could be the sign we're looking for. So far we got the set-up for one.

Wish I had a crystal ball, but last time I checked Ebay was out. :D
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A crystal ball wouldn't hurt. Darn! Ebay! You cannot trust it when you need it the most. :D Right now the C fund is struggling and the S is in the green. I am hoping to see some more profit taking for my TSP. I know that I will not make up the 21% YTD before jumping to G. But it would be nice getting into the mid teens.:) GOOD LUCK everyone.
 
nasa1974 said:
A crystal ball wouldn't hurt. Darn! Ebay! You cannot trust it when you need it the most. :D Right now the C fund is struggling and the S is in the green. I am hoping to see some more profit taking for my TSP. I know that I will not make up the 21% YTD before jumping to G. But it would be nice getting into the mid teens.:) GOOD LUCK everyone.
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A mixed close makes for more uncertainty. I did not make a transfer as I wanted the market to show me some follow-through first, otherwise I could be selling into a decline. We got some in the S fund, but C closed down and I fund was flat. Although it was a bearish close, the good news is that we held most of yesterday's big advance. The bears may try to continue to move lower tomorrow morning, but "the hook" is still in play.

We are just about into November when our trade restrictions reset. I prefer being in stox if possible to start the month as it gives us an extra trade.

However, as luck would have it the election is next week, which I suspect could produce more fireworks. It's just not going to get any easier.
 
I won't be able to look at this until much later today, but foreign banks in general are in trouble. That much I know. Collectively, they are structured different than our own banking system and economic policies vary from country to country.
 
Yesterday's late sell-off was probably a move to shake loose some bulls. As you can see we moved significantly higher this morning. Liquidity could move us up a bit more, but we're not out of the woods. Monday is a new month which affords us a little bit of flexiblity. I'm expecting to sell something into today's rally (hope it holds) and buy back on a pullback.
 
I believe a good amount of the margin call selling may be complete. If the market can drop 400 points in 13 minutes on no volume - what can happen if the good folks behind the trading desks start buying, we could easily see 400 points in 30 minutes. There's more volatility to come to the upside. Looking for the big V.
 
I've been expecting more upside. Thanks for the perspective BT. I don't have the time during the day to watch this stuff that closely.
 
justbizness45 said:
Coolhand, I posted this on my thread but I would be interested in your opinion. KD paints a grim picture of the foriegn banks.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-_-IKcoULE

Thanks, JB45
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Yes, I agree with him. Excerpt from an article re: Hungary's bailout:

The huge scale of the IMF bailout in coordination with the EU, shows the severity of the crisis in Hungary and the fear that the crisis could spread to the rest of Central Europe and the Balkans, where countries have the same problems as Hungary. The rapid influx of foreign capital into these economies, along with the largely foreign ownership of their banking systems, makes for an unstable liquidity situation while at the same time there is a global flight of capital to safety. Foreign banks in the region (Italian, Swedish, Austrian and Greek) have assets that may be lost when Central European and Balkan customers can no longer pay their loans due to depreciating currency, which will only encourage the crisis to spread further and faster.

This is a very serious situation. It could severely alter the geopolitical landscape in Europe as Russia tries to take advantage of this situation as they have about 600B in oil money reserves. It's unclear how long they can push their agenda though since oil prices have dropped significantly (their main export is energy) while at the same time stave off an internal monetary crisis of their own.

How the dollar bears can keep calling for a reversal of dollar strength when most others are so much more unstable than we are is beyond me.
 
Take all the bad news as an opportunity unfolding. It's just a matter of time before it starts getting better. That time could and probably is a ways off yet. Even a rally to end of year would not necessarily mean the bear is dead. We had market that was wound up pretty tight and now the wheels are coming off. It'll take time to work its way back to normal. Whatever normal is.

http://[[[financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2008/1031.html
 
coolhand said:
Take all the bad news as an opportunity unfolding. It's just a matter of time before it starts getting better. That time could and probably is a ways off yet. Even a rally to end of year would not necessarily mean the bear is dead. We had market that was wound up pretty tight and now the wheels are coming off. It'll take time to work its way back to normal. Whatever normal is.

http://[[[financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2008/1031.html
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Thanks for your posts. We need some level headed advice around here to go with all the doom and gloom the media and the Pump Monkeys - (Bull and Bear) are pushing. I'm still playing by Bear Market rules, and trying to squeeze some more out of this current Bear Market rally.

Take Care!
 
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