coolhand's Account Talk

So, things are getting ever more interesting, or should I say worrisome? Looking at the latest NAAIM reading I see that the mean average fell about 18 points, which puts it right back into a bearish condition. The bears were leveraged 50% short last week and remain leveraged 50% short this week. The bulls remain fully leveraged long, but the numbers of bulls was reduced.

My personal perspective is that the bank failures in the news right now are very likely not going to be the only ones (not to mention the potential negative impacts in other sectors). And this is a worldwide situation, so I would not be inclined to look at this as just another wall of worry. I suspect this situation has some measure of weeks to play out yet and I have heard in some circles that it won't end well for the bankers. I am just a bystander taking the pulse of things and watching the smart money to see what they do. And they're overall bearish once again.
 
The latest NAAIM reading shows the mean average for stock exposure rose almost 13 points, which takes the reading from bearish to about neutral. The bears dropped their leveraged short positions another 25% this week, so they are half leveraged short. The bulls remain 100% leveraged long, but the bulls that got off the bulls train last week are back on the bull train this week, so there is more of them. The drop in leveraged shorts and the increase in the number of leveraged longs is what pushed the mean average higher this week. Still, as I said, the reading is now neutral so it is not clear by this reading where the market might head (if anywhere) over the next week or so.
 
This week's NAAIM reading shows the mean average dropping more than 9 points, which pushes it deeper into bearish territory. The bears did pull back modestly on their leveraged short positions, but are still fairly heavily leveraged. The bulls remain fully leveraged on their collective long positions, but it appears there are fewer of them, which is likely why the reading fell. So, the smart money continues looking lower overall.
 
We got a big shift in this week's NAAIM reading. The mean average dropped over 24 points, which takes it out of bullish territory and puts it in a neutral condition. The bears have not only increased their shorts, but are now fully leveraged too. This does not happen often in this market. The bulls among them remain fully leveraged (long) as well. These money managers are split right down the middle right now. This could be an early indication of trouble for the market, but the short side has not been kind to the bears. As always, time will tell.
 
This week's NAAIM reading shows a modest dip in the mean average. The reading, which was bullish least week, remains bullish this week. I note that there was some short positions taken this week, but it isn't particularly meaningful given the majority of managers are still leveraged long right now.
 
The latest NAAIM reading shows the recent trend toward increasing bullishness continued this week as the NAAIM mean average pushed higher into bullish territory. This marks the 5th week in a row of increasing bullishness. The reading is solidly bullish now with few bears in evidence.
 
This week's NAAIM reading, which was bullish last week, is a bit more bullish this week as longs added modestly to their holdings. There isn't all that much change in the numbers overall. This market appears headed higher for time being, but remain fluid as we never know when things may change.
 
The latest NAAIM reading shows this smart money continued to move more in the bullish direction with the mean average rising about 10 points, going from modestly bullish to bullish. The numbers show the bears reducing much of their short positions, while leveraged longs and longs added to their positions. This reading very much suggests the upside is probably not done. No idea how much more upside we might see, but in a market like this it could be significant given how bearish so many polls have been. Still, the NAAIM reading, while bullish, is not heavily bulled up, so even some within smart money circles are not entirely comfortable with the current rally. But, would it really be surprising if the market continued to find ways to move higher beyond what seems reasonable?
 
This week's NAAIM reading saw a sizable jump in bullishness and the reading itself is now modestly bullish. Interestingly, the bulls increased their leverage from last week's dip and the bears added to their short positions. It's a mixed picture, but taken as a whole it is still on the bullish side.
 
coolhand said:
The latest NAAIM reading shows a small increase in the mean average, but not enough to take it out of bearish territory, though it is not far from a neutral reading. The bears cut their short exposure in half, which wasn't substantial to begin with. The bulls, for first time in months, cut their leveraged long positions by about 40%. That sounds a big move away from bullishness, but remember that the numbers show fully leveraged short, short, neutral, long, and leveraged long. So, while leveraged long exposure was cut, it could very well mean that they still remain long.

Overall, there still isn't that much to be gleaned from their current positions. Both sides remain cautious; especially the bears.
Click to expand...

Always like your insight.
 
The latest NAAIM reading shows a small increase in the mean average, but not enough to take it out of bearish territory, though it is not far from a neutral reading. The bears cut their short exposure in half, which wasn't substantial to begin with. The bulls, for first time in months, cut their leveraged long positions by about 40%. That sounds a big move away from bullishness, but remember that the numbers show fully leveraged short, short, neutral, long, and leveraged long. So, while leveraged long exposure was cut, it could very well mean that they still remain long.

Overall, there still isn't that much to be gleaned from their current positions. Both sides remain cautious; especially the bears.
 
coolhand said:
The latest NAAIM reading saw the mean average fall a few points, which keeps it bearish for the market. The numbers show some nibbling by the bears on short positions, but they are not going out on a limb. The bulls may have picked up a few more longs, but not enough to keep the mean average from falling more into bearish territory. Really, it's the same old story here. Caution on both sides of the market.
Click to expand...
Happy New Year!!
Please keep posting!!
 
The latest NAAIM reading saw the mean average fall a few points, which keeps it bearish for the market. The numbers show some nibbling by the bears on short positions, but they are not going out on a limb. The bulls may have picked up a few more longs, but not enough to keep the mean average from falling more into bearish territory. Really, it's the same old story here. Caution on both sides of the market.
 
After taking short positions last week, the latest NAAIM reading shows that the bears have stopped shorting once again. The bulls remain leveraged long, but like last week, not in big numbers. Overall, the reading rose somewhat modestly, but remains on the bearish side. Given the up/down nature of this market, I suspect that the smart money isn't having much fun trading this market either. NAAIM's overall positioning continues to show a healthy respect for the downside (very wary) and tempered respect for the upside (leveraged long, but not in big numbers). Sure seems like they collectively are waiting for something to happen that is going to take this market lower. Caution is evident by both bulls and bears.
 
This week's NAAIM reading saw a big shift from bullish to bearish. The mean average dropped more than 32 points. Extreme shifts in NAAIM often see the opposite reaction in the market, but not for more than a couple of days or so. In this case, we have yet to see an opposite reaction. Looking at the numbers, the bears are now fully short, but still not leveraged. The bulls remain leveraged and long, but there is far fewer of them. I suspect many are holding cash positions too. The reading is now bearish overall. As a side note, the reading is the lowest in several months.
 
Always like your insights, I work full time and f and I don’t have a lot to post. it gets me thinking for I don’t have the records, files, etc. to make anything?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Stocks bounce Monday after last week's sell off
Replies
0
Views
5K
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Monday takes away Friday's big gains
Replies
0
Views
417
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - A quiet rally after a loud week
Replies
0
Views
3K
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Relief
Replies
0
Views
915
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The relief rally runs into trouble in a hurry
Replies
0
Views
972
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top