coolhand's Account Talk

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coolhand said:
I've been concerned that our TSP accounts may not be the worst of our worries. I'll let the video speak for itself, but something seems afoot and I'm very concerned, as well all the folks I correspond with.
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Whoa, that sure is an eye opener. :worried:

CB
 
When Ron Paul speaks....I listen.
Truly scary stuff.
I've been loading up with silver bullion. Might give me some security/profits if monetary system goes kablooey....
unless they suppress precious metals as well. :eek:
 
TerpTrader said:
When Ron Paul speaks....I listen.
Truly scary stuff.
I've been loading up with silver bullion. Might give me some security/profits if monetary system goes kablooey....
unless they suppress precious metals as well. :eek:
Click to expand...

Not a bad idea, but I'm loading up on lead. The way I figure lead will trump precious metals if the rubber hits the road. ;)

CB
 
KevinD said:
I kinda thought the same thing and now Ron Paul's reputation has taken a hit in my eyes. :blink:

But who knows...maybe it's all true. :confused: :suspicious:
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No one really knows what's going on at the highest levels. It's way above our heads. I also don't get too caught up with this sort of thing, but I've read enough material from various reliable sources to at least believe there are agenda's being pushed that most people are not aware of.

The fact that a world currency is now being talked about more openly is a flag. The extent of economic damage done worldwide may very well open a pandora's box of Central Bank and Government intervention. What that might look like over time I do not know, but it does seem like we may be headed toward some kind of new monetary system.

What's funny to me, is that some of these ideas were considered tin foil hat stuff only a few years ago, but too much of it does seem to be happening today. Coincidences? Maybe. But Ron Paul isn't the only who feels the way he does.
 
I've been quite patient with this market ever since I got caught in that quick October decline, in large measure because of our trading restrictions, but also because of the volatility. I started out prior to the decline at -2% for the year and since then have been as low as about -27%. Currently at -18.45%.

I had a chance to make a nice trade last week by selling on election day, but really wanted to see how the market would react post-election. Unfortunately, I got hammered...again. IMO the move down was too quick and deep to sell knowing that the volatility would eventually push me back up again. I got some back on Friday and I'm looking for some more follow-through early this week based on the overly pessimistic sentiment readings cause by that 2-day decline Wednesday and Thursday.

I don't see a huge move higher in the near term with all the uncertainty still swirling around the global markets, so I'm looking to sell at least some of my position if we get back over 1,000 on SPX. I simply need to build up some cash reserves for another entry on the next steep decline. Asia is up big right now and futures for tomorrow's open are moving higher.
 
It's rarely an easy decision. Early gains evaporate, but we often reverse in the afternoon. Went 75 G, 25 C for tomorrow. It's time to raise some cash so I can play both ends of this market. TSP.gov is not taking transfers tomorrow so that forced my hand a little too, otherwise I might have let it ride one more day.
 
Pockets of bullish sentiment are causing problems. Tickersense shows there are areas of extreme bullishness. That's never good at an early stage of a rally. It has the makings of "Bull Market crib death". The good news is that there are a ton of Bears too and a lot of divergences. Expect to shake a bunch of bulls loose. Good volume support is at 870 so if we break that on volume, watch out. The SPX $-weighted P/C was too high. That's almost always a tell for some weakness if all the other $-weighted aren't high too.

Currently 75/25 GC
 
coolhand said:
http://tinyurl.com/5ru975
Click to expand...

Thanks coolhand.

Kenny Rogers, a data security specialist, moved into Mountain House last year, buying a foreclosed property on Prosperity Street for $380,000. But the decline in values has been so fierce that he too is underwater.

He has cut his DVD buying from 50 a month to perhaps one, and is waiting until the Christmas sales to buy a high-definition television. He does not indulge much anymore in his hobbies of scuba diving and flying. “Best to wait for a better price, or do without,” Mr. Rogers, 52, said.
Click to expand...

That's funny.:nuts:
 
Quote from your link a couple post's back:

"Burdened with credit card debt and a house losing value by the day, they are learning the necessity of self-denial for themselves and their three children.
No more family bowling night. No more dinners at Chili’s or Applebee’s. No more going to the movies."


This is what's wrong with this country. How many people in this world go to bed hungry and living in a shack every night? People like this whine about not being able to eat out anymore and not spend whenever they feel like it. How tragic and dismal for them, NOT!!

They bought more house than they could afford and got used to a materialistic life. I bet their kids have cell phones, ipods, Xbox 360's and every other gadget that kids "must" have today. By their standards my wife and three kids must have been paupers and recluses because we rarely ever went out to eat and entertained ourselves at home with board games and cards and movies at home. I'm not saying we never splurged on nice things but this kind of story is told over and over in the media lately and it angers me to no end every time I hear it.

Thank your Creator for what you have and be a wise steward with what He's given you. Rant over.......
 
The tone of the market is very bearish as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, every sector is falling and volume is about average. Investor anxiety is elevated. Today’s overall market action is very bearish. The VIX is rising 7.89% and is very elevated at 66.30. The ISE Sentiment Index is depressed at 59.0 and the total put/call is high at 1.13. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running very high most of the day, hitting 2.63 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.60. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising 3.35% today to 109.66 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5th, but down from 157.81 on Sept. 16th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is up 5.8% to 201.0 basis points. The TED spread is rising 13.2% to 198 basis points. The TED spread is now down 266 basis points in just over four weeks. The 2-year swap spread is falling .12% to 104.63 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is falling 3.42% to 164 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is down 6 basis points to .89%, which is down 173 basis points in just over four months and at the lowest level since January 1999. I am seeing panicky type action again in a number of stocks. Action in the financial sector is a large negative. Tomorrow’s grilling of hedge fund managers will dominate the airwaves and likely be another negative for sentiment in the very near-term. I plan to maintain my current positions into the close with an eye towards lifting some hedges tomorrow. Nikkei futures indicate a -480 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -1 open in Germany tomorrow.

Gary - Between the Hedges
 
UK on Brink of Meltdown

Kenneth Clarke, the former Chancellor warns Britain is on the brink of 'meltdown'

Mr Clarke, 68, said the British economy is headed for a "catastrophic crisis" that will be "far worse than anything that has occurred in my lifetime".

"There will be a very serious recession next year," he said in an interview with Telegraph TV. "I think the big problem in 2009 will be the catastrophic fall in consumer spending demand, spending in shops will get worse."

Mr Clarke, who as Chancellor of the Exchequer between 1993 and 1997 led Britain's recovery from Black Wednesday, called for a temporary cut in VAT to boost spending.

Speaking as the Office of National Statistics revealed unemployment has reached an 11-year high of 1.82m, Mr Clarke said the number of jobless could soon reach three million.

"We are not yet in a state where we can be absolutely certain we are not going to have something close to meltdown next year", he said. "You do have to see what can be done with taxes."

He cautioned that Britain has "mounting debt, which is unsustainable" but said policymakers should bear in mind the effect a "full-blown depression will have on public finances".

BOE Prepared to Cut Rates as Low as Needed

Bloomberg is reporting BOE Prepared to Cut Rates as Low as Needed

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said policy makers are prepared to reduce interest rates as low as needed to prevent a recession from fueling deflationary pressures.

Asked whether he would take rates to zero, King said today policy makers ``are prepared to cut bank rate to whatever level is necessary'' to make sure inflation hits the central bank's target. The Bank of England's forecasts, published today, said inflation may slow "well below'' their 2 percent goal in 2009.

The pound dropped to a record low against the euro after King today forecast a deepening recession. The bank has already trimmed the benchmark rate twice in the last month, reducing it by 1 1/2 percentage points last week to a five-decade low of 3 percent.

The downturn has worsened in the past month, reports show. Unemployment rose at the fastest pace in 16 years in October, house prices are falling the most in a quarter century and manufacturing is in its worst recession since the early 1980s. Until last week, the central bank's benchmark was the highest among the Group of Seven nations.

"Today's inflation report is a courageous acknowledgment that they are definitely behind the curve and quick action is definitely needed," said Chiara Corsa, an economist at UniCredit MIB. "Risks of a deflation scenario loom at the horizon."

The central bank's forecasts, presented as fan charts, show deflation has slipped into the range of possible outcomes over the next three years and King conceded there's a "risk" that consumer prices will start to fall.
Deflationary Hurricanes to Hit U.S. and U.K.

Flashback June 30,2008 : Deflationary Hurricanes to Hit U.S. and U.K.

Congratulations (of sorts) go to the UK as British household debt is highest in history.

What started as a tropical storm called "Subprime" has intensified in magnitude to engulf Alt-A, HELOCs, credit cards, commercial real estate, municipal bonds, corporate bonds, and the stock market, just as baby boomers are headed for retirement. If you prefer, you can think of this as Many Hurricanes, Many Eyes.

It will be hard for the US and UK to avoid a depression.
 
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