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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
coolhand
Well-known member
coolhand
Well-known member
I'm in accumulation mode now, albeit still bobbing and weaving with the market as much as I can with our restrictions. So far this week I managed to sidestep about 5% of this current decline putting me about 22% ahead of the S&P.
Sure sounds better than saying I'm down 20% so far this year. :cheesy:
phillyfed
Member
We must follow through with this....Its in our countries best interest. Its also a great way to marginalize pissants like Iran, Venezuela, the Saudi's (which secretly fund terrorism) and most importantly, Russia.
From what I read, Its not cost feasible when Gas is under 2.20 a Gallon. But thats just from a business perspective. I'd rather pay $2.20 a gallon if the money stays here then $2.00 if the money goes to a scumbag country that uses Oil as a weapon.
Besides, an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities by Israel (which is a real possibility) will push Oil back over $100 overnight.
If you look at a stock like FSYS (they retrofit cars for natural gas) they are still exploding revenue in their latest qtr. despite lower gas prices. So there is a movement. Esp., in Europe, where they pay twice what we do.
Besides, gas prices are cyclical....It will be $3 again if we dont follow the Pickens plan
coolhand
Well-known member
I suspect it will move forward eventually. Most likely it'll happen at some point after the new administration takes over.
coolhand
Well-known member
poolman
Top Return 2008
Silverbird
Well-known member
Background on AMAT (Applied Materials): They produce semiconductor manufacturing equipment, Flat Panel display manufacturing equipment and solar panel manufacturing equipment. Solar panel equipment has been their growth product this year, but with the fall in oil prices, lack of capital and uncertainty on the U.S. tax credit for renewables (and pullbacks on renewable energy programs overseas) their sales of solar panel manufacturing equipment have fallen too.
Intel, well we know about them, btw they are still doing better than the overall semiconductor market. They are the top dog, after all, and they are not in the DRAM shootout alley where a lot of the other large semiconductor companies are.
This time, Tech is a follower (especially semiconductors and related equipment since they react to the end use product manufacturers), this bust is not dot.com. There have been predictions that Tech will recover later than other industries. The good news for tech (sort of good?) is they are only indirectly impacted this time, and they entered the downturn later than some of the other industries (shorter suffering time). So INMSHO, you can watch Tech as a sector right now, but it may not show you where the Market is going.
coolhand
Well-known member
I only posted a good source of daily info and perspective. Not really following tech all. But your comments re: it are duly noted. Thanks!
coolhand
Well-known member
The G-20’s Secret Debt Solution
by Larry Edelson 11-13-08
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-g-20s-secret-debt-solution-27996
If you think this weekend’s G-20 meetings in Washington are only about designing short-term fixes to the financial system and regulatory reforms for banks, hedge funds, brokers, mortgage companies and investment banks … think again.
Behind the scenes, a far more fundamental fix is being discussed — the possible revaluation of gold and the birth of an entirely new monetary system.
I’ve been studying this issue in great depth, all my life. And given the speed at which the financial crisis is unfolding, I would be very surprised if what I’m about to tell you now is not on the G-20 table this weekend.
Furthermore, I believe the end result will make my $2,270 price target for gold look conservative, to say the least. You’ll see why in a minute.
First, the G-20’s motive for a new monetary system: It’s driven by and based upon this very simple proposition …
“If we can’t print money fast enough to fend off another deflationary Great Depression, then let’s change the value of the money.”
I call it …
“The G-20’s Secret Debt Solution”
It would be a strategy designed to ease the burden of ALL debts — by simultaneously devaluing ALL currencies … and re-inflating ALL asset prices.
That’s what central banks and governments around the world are going to start talking about this weekend — a new financial order that includes new monetary units that helps to wipe clean the world’s debt ledgers.
It won’t be an easy deal to broker, since the U.S. is the world’s largest debtor. But remember: Debts are now going bad all over the world. So everyone would benefit.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke … Treasury Secretary Paulson … President Bush … President-elect Obama … former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker … Warren Buffett … and central bankers and politicians all over the world agree a new monetary system is needed.
So they’ll start hashing out the details to get the new financial architecture deployed as quickly as possible.
If you think I’m crazy or propagating some kind of conspiracy theory, then consider the historical precedent …
To end the Great Depression in 1933 Franklin Roosevelt devalued the dollar via Executive Order #6102, confiscating gold and raising its price 69.3%, effectively kick starting asset reflation.
Only this time, it won’t be just the U.S. that devalues its currency. The world is too interconnected. Instead, the world’s leading countries will propose a simultaneous and universal currency devaluation.
This time, they will NOT confiscate gold. There would be riots all over the globe if they even mentioned the “C” word.
But they don’t have to confiscate gold. Here’s one scenario …
They cease all gold sales and instead, raise the current official central bank price of gold from its booked value of $42.22 an ounce — to a price that monetizes a large enough portion of the world’s outstanding debts.
That way, just like in 1933, the debts become a fraction of re-inflated asset prices (led higher by the gold price).
And this time, instead of staying with the dollar as a reserve currency, the G-20 issues three new monetary units of exchange, each with equal reserve status.
The three currencies will essentially be a new dollar, new euro, and a new pan-Asian currency. (The Chinese yuan may survive as a fourth currency, but it will be linked to a basket of the three new currencies.)
The new fiat monetary units would be worth less than the old ones. For instance, it could take 10 new units of money to buy 1 old dollar or euro.
New names would be given to the new currencies to help rid the world of the ghost of a system that failed. Additional regulations and programs would be designed and implemented to ease the transition to a new monetary system.
The IMF would be at the center of the new monetary system.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) would implement the new financial system in conjunction with central banks and governments around the world.
Keep in mind that the IMF is already set up to handle the transition, and has had contingency plans allowing for it since the institution was formed in 1944.
Included in the design and transition to a new monetary system …
A. A new fixed-rate currency regime. Immediately upon upping the price of gold and introducing the new currencies, a new fixed exchange rate system would be re-introduced. The floating exchange rate system would be tossed into the dust bin along with the old currencies.
This would kill any speculation about further devaluations in the currency markets, and drastically reduce market volatility.
B. To sell the program to savers and protect them from the currency devaluation, compensatory measures would be enacted. For instance, a one-time windfall tax-free deposit could be issued by governments directly to citizens’ accounts, or, to employer-sponsored pensions, to IRAs, or Social Security accounts.
Income taxes may subsequently be raised to pay for the give-away, or a nominal global type of sales tax could be enacted to help pay for the new system and the compensatory measures.
C. Additional programs would be designed to protect lenders and creditors. Lenders stand a much higher chance of getting paid off under the new monetary system — but with a currency whose purchasing power would now be a fraction of what it was when the loans were originated.
So programs would have to be designed to help lenders offset the inflationary costs of their devalued loans, probably via the tax code.
Naturally, all this is a bit more complicated than I’ve spelled out above. But that gives you a big-picture outline of what the plan could look like. And I think major changes like these are going to be set in motion at this weekend’s G-20 meetings in Washington.
Would they work?
Yes. They would help avoid a repeat of the deflationary Great Depression. But don’t expect even a new monetary system to put the U.S. or the global economy back on track toward the high rates of real growth that we’ve seen over the last several years. That’s simply not going to happen. Not for a while.
Instead, I’m talking about a massive asset price reflation, negative real economic growth in the U.S. and Europe — but continued real GDP gains in Asia.
The Big Question: What gold price would be legislated to reflate the U.S. and global economy?
I can’t tell you what gold price the G-20 would ultimately agree to. But here’s what they will be looking at …
To monetize 100% of the outstanding public and private sector debt in the U.S., the official government price of gold would have to be raised to about $53,000 per ounce.
To monetize 50%, the price of gold would have to be raised to around $26,500 an ounce.
To monetize 20% would require a gold price a hair over $10,600 an ounce.
To monetize just 10%, gold would have to be priced just over $5,300 an ounce.
Those figures are just based on the U.S. debt structure and do not factor in global debts gone bad. But since the U.S. is the world’s largest debtor and the epicenter of the crisis, the G-20 will likely base their final decision mostly on the U.S. debt structure.
So how much debt do I think would be monetized via an executive order that raises the official price of gold? What kind of currency devaluation would I expect as a result?
I would not be surprised to see the G-20 monetize at least 20% of the U.S. debt markets. THAT MEANS …
Gold would be priced at over $10,000 an ounce.
Currencies would be devalued by a factor of at least 12 to 1, meaning it would take 12 new dollars or euros to equal 1 old dollar or euro.
The return of the Gold Standard?
“But Larry,” you ask, “how could this be accomplished when we no longer have a gold standard? Further, are you advocating a gold standard?”
If the G-20 monetizes at least 20% of the U.S. debt markets, gold could easily hit $10,000 an ounce.
My answers:
First, you don’t need a gold standard to accomplish a devaluation of currencies and revaluation of the monetary system.
By offering to pay over $10,000 an ounce for gold, central banks can effectively accomplish the same end goal — monetizing and reducing the burden of debts, via inflating asset prices in fiat money terms.
Naturally, hoards of gold investors will cash in their gold. The central banks will pile it up. At the same time, other hoards of investors will not sell their gold, even at $10,000 an ounce. But the actual movement of the gold will not matter. It is the psychological impact and the devaluation of paper currencies that matters.
Second, I do NOT advocate a fully convertible gold standard. Never have. There isn’t enough gold in the world to make currencies convertible into gold. It would end up backfiring, restricting the supply of money and credit.
What should you do to prepare for these possibilities?
It’s obvious: Make sure you own some core gold, as much as 25% of your investable funds.
Also, as I’ve noted in past Money and Markets issues, you will want to own key natural resource stocks, and even select blue-chip stocks that will participate in the reflation scheme.
For more details and specific recommendations to follow, be sure to subscribe to my Real Wealth Report.
Best wishes,
LarryLast edited by a moderator:Coolhand,
Thanks for the interesting and timely article you have posted. Since you have been studying this issue for a long time, I hope that others in this board will continue to benefit from your future updates and opinions, so that we might make the best possible investment choices.
Quoting Larry Edelson in pertinent part:,
"What should you do to prepare for these possibilities?
It’s obvious: Make sure you own some core gold, as much as 25% of your investable funds.
Also, as I’ve noted in past Money and Markets issues, you will want to own key natural resource stocks, and even select blue-chip stocks that will participate in the reflation scheme."
Based on your experience, can one buy gold certificates safely?
What is the best choice for TSPers to take? Stay invested in the C fund and ride the potential solutions out?
Or would the G and F funds stand to be the better alternative?
Please don't mind if you don't have all the answers, because I don't have the answers myself. However, your post might generate a healthy meeting of the minds in the message board. Let's hope we can all benefit from the ongoing uncertainty and find the best solutions.
Best regards!
coolhand
Well-known member
Airlift,
Actually, the entire post is the article itself. I made no comments regarding it. I also don't have an opinion on what anyone should own outside of TSP. I work too many hours and travel too much to play individual stox or ETFs very closely, but since TSP is such a large part of my retirement benefit I try as best I can to boost my returns and beat buy and hold.
I thought the article was an interesting perspective, especially given the extreme global economic conditions driving the G20 meeting. It's anyone's guess how to position themselves for it (and I get emails daily from pro's telling me what I need to do next). It's all speculation. Diversity is still the key IMO.
As these events unfold we'll slowly get a better idea of how we'll be impacted by any final agreements between the G20, but it will probably take some time to play out as there are lots of agendas at play here and emotions will run high.
~cool
coolhand
Well-known member
With the kind of volatility we're seeing lately, we need luck to successfully make ST trades with TSP. Selling strength is the call on Trader's Talk, but no one knows how high the market may go on yesterday's sharp reversal, or how much weakness we may see on a pullback.
The market tried to rally and then fell out of bed yesterday, taking out the lows, and then reversing sharply. That's Bullish. But it's still hard to react when the market does that. From here, things look pretty Bullish. They aren't confirmed, but it won't take much to do it. Breadth came back after all that weakness. There's plenty of Bearishness out there still, but we did pick up some Bulls. Very near term, I'd be inclined to buy low volume pullbacks.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
We just bounced of the 50% retracement of yesterday's gain. One of my indicator is saying buy. If I get in now, I will be buying at a much lower level than when I sold. I wish I had a crystal ball.
Also, I doubt that the G20 will come up with a plan to save the world. My guess is more ways to push toxic assets on to the taxpayers.
coolhand
Well-known member
That's sounds like a great reason to clear the table to me. lol
going 25/40/35 CSI. Hope it holds lower to the close.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Good luck. I'm still undecided.Similar threads
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