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I follow Mark Young on Trader's Talk very closely. He's looking for a decline to start the trading today (surprise) and then up big. That's what I'm looking for too as the S&P drops back down towards its recent low. From Mark:

We've got a Buy weakness signal.

It's op ex week.

Premiums are high.

The $-weighted P/C's are still high after being sky high on Friday.

It'll need fine tuning, but the set up is there.

More later.

Mark
 
Thanks for sharing that. Mark may be interested on our new sentiment system parameters (which we will start officially in 2009). As you mentioned to me, he references our ratios and buy/sell signals each week. He may see it but if you are in contact with him, you might mention it. Thanks!
 
tsptalk said:
Thanks for sharing that. Mark may be interested on our new sentiment system parameters (which we will start officially in 2009). As you mentioned to me, he references our ratios and buy/sell signals each week. He may see it but if you are in contact with him, you might mention it. Thanks!
Click to expand...

Will do Tom.
 
I've started a blog so I'm going to keep this account to simply track my tsp moves as well as any analysis related to it. Everything else I'll move to the blog. :)
 
We are in no man's land. The charts look terrible and we seem to be setting up to test the lows across the market again. Yesterday's action was more chop than anything and the big money seems reluctant to put too much money in front of this train, even with the high P/C premiums being paid. We've had good set-ups for rallies, but the market seems to be saying things are going to get worse yet before they get better. If we don't have a meaningful rally soon (not this intraday stuff and not one day wonders that begin and end at the last hour of trading), then it could be look out below again. Especially if we close below 815 on the S&P.

I have no more trades left this month except to go to cash, so I'm back to the same problem I had last month, which is to play things more IT or bail and wait till the new month begins. I need to go find a coin...
 
I am looking for the exits. I have not been bullish long term all year and have only been playing short term trades for several months based on good historical set-ups. For two months now I've been hammered every time I've tried. It's certainly frustrating when you're only down 2% for the year to start October and 6 weeks later you're sporting a 28% loss.

I do not sell weakness as a rule and today will be no different. It just means that upside targets get lower. We dropped below the bollinger band on SPX yesterday and that usually means we're close to a bounce, but the economic landscape really is scary. Not just emotionally, but fundamentally. There really hasn't been any concrete options offered by the Fed, Treasury or Government to turn the long term outlook around and I'm expecting next quarter to get worse. The point is we could drop much lower very quickly in spite of the penetration of the bollinger band to the downside.

P/C premiums are still high too, which makes taking the market higher very attractive to the big guys, but they haven't been taking advantage of this situation very often of late. This is a big indicator for me, but it's been getting me in trouble lately.

And then we have the Intermediate Term sell signal from the Seven Sentinels I posted about in my blog yesterday. It confirms my feelings about this market.

Still, I am a fighter and try to keep a balanced approach to trading, because once you throw in the towel you begin to see only one side of the market and that's when the pain can get worse. As bad as it is to get caught in downside action like this, it's even worse when you miss the move back up.
The market needs to breath, it moves up and down in times of euphoria and in times of fear. Now I wait for the upside to begin again. I hope it comes sooner rather than later.
 
coolhand said:
It's certainly frustrating when you're only down 2% for the year to start October and 6 weeks later you're sporting a 28% loss.
Click to expand...

You just described my situation perfectly. The two IFT rule has really contributed to twisting the knife already buried in my chest. I'm still in myself looking for a rebound to alleviate some of the pain from this week so I can get out not quite as wounded.
 
BULLonPARADE said:
You just described my situation perfectly. The two IFT rule has really contributed to twisting the knife already buried in my chest. I'm still in myself looking for a rebound to alleviate some of the pain from this week so I can get out not quite as wounded.
Click to expand...

That is exactly right. The trading restrictions have forced me to take Intermediate Term approaches when I really don't want to. Right now the IT is not good IMO, so I'm looking for a relief rally to lighten up. I just hope it doesn't drop like October where I'm down another 15% or so before we get a decent reversal. I'd like to think most of the carnage is behide us at this point too, and with the indexes already close to or over 50% down that seems like a reasonable expectation. Even so, another 20-25% loss would fit that scenario too and I certainly don't want to be in stox if that happens.
 
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