coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading rose about 7 pts, which retraces the drop in the mean reading last week. This puts the reading back into a bullish condition (from modestly bullish). The bears had no change in their short positions and remain 50% short, but it looks like they picked up a few bears. The bulls remain 100% long and leveraged and they picked up some bulls, so some sideline money found its way into both the bull and bear camps this week with the bulls picking up the biggest gain, which is why the reading rose.

The market continues to make it difficult to pick your entry and exit spots, but the NAAIM smart money is still pointing higher.

 

[Scout333]

As always thanks for sharing your analysis Cool! I am beginning to be really nervous about the bullishness of this market with no real strong support! :smile::smile::smile:

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading saw the mean average drop 7.67 pts, which takes it from a bullish reading to a modestly bullish reading. The bears went from neutral to 50% short (no leverage). The bulls remain steadfastly long and leveraged. So, we don't have any big changes and the picture remains about the same. The bears remain cautious, while the bulls maintain their leveraged long positions. But the market isn't making it easy to take advantage of weekly readings, but it remains notable that at least to this point it does continue to favor the bulls over the longer term (depending on the index being followed). How long it can continue to so is the million dollar question, isn't it?

 

[coolhand]

Last week, the NAAIM reading dipped a bit, but remained bullish overall. The market, however, was weak since that time, but it was also due for a measure of profit taking. Remember, there was some short positions taken last week by NAAIM even as they remained bullish overall.

This week, the NAAIM reading ticked up about 2 pts, which is is not meaningful, but the bears took their short positions off and that may be a tell. The bulls remain long and leveraged.

So, the reading remains bullish and since the bears have vacated their shorts, I'd say the market may be ready to move back up again before too long.

 

[dannyboy]

So, last week's bullish spike in sentiment among the NAAIM money mangers turned out to be a good shift in sentiment. There was a chance we might have seen some short term weakness after the initial shift, but it never really materialized (not that it had to). So, this smart money got on the same page for a change and called the direction accurately.

This week, the mean average fell a little more than 8 pts., which isn't a big shift. The reading remains bullish overall. The bears have gone 50% short now, while the bulls remain long and leveraged. There can't be that many bears with the reading still elevated as it is.

There is likely more upside to come in the days ahead given this weekly reading.

Thanks CH,
I really took a major hit, late last year- early this year , all due to pandemic? This gives me a little bit of time to think about this. I can gently stick a toe in cyberspace and make a good effort to watch more closely. I hope that this works out? G25C50S25
db

 

[coolhand]

So, last week's bullish spike in sentiment among the NAAIM money mangers turned out to be a good shift in sentiment. There was a chance we might have seen some short term weakness after the initial shift, but it never really materialized (not that it had to). So, this smart money got on the same page for a change and called the direction accurately.

This week, the mean average fell a little more than 8 pts., which isn't a big shift. The reading remains bullish overall. The bears have gone 50% short now, while the bulls remain long and leveraged. There can't be that many bears with the reading still elevated as it is.

There is likely more upside to come in the days ahead given this weekly reading.

 

[dannyboy]

This week's NAAIM reading took a hard turn back up to a very bullish condition (from last week's neutral condition). The mean average is up about 36 pts overall. The bears turned off their shorts and have shifted to a bullish condition. The bulls remain long and leveraged and their numbers increased as well. One note of caution is that whenever there is a large shift in the mean average (bullish or bearish) there can be a short term market reaction in the opposite direction. This means there is a chance we see some weakness over the next couple of days or so. If we get that weakness, it isn't likely to last too long. Looking out more than a couple of days I would expect higher stock prices.

This is a very interesting development in the NAAIM reading. The mean average has not been this high for some time.

I REALLY like your ideas. There is time to act and a time to chill. I got out awhile ago and I am going to stay in the G awhile. Wars, etc have a fair amount to do with this, but as long as Putin is around things are tricky. We need to focus on the current situations as they are and to not be to be tied to others thinking than we’ll
be better?

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading took a hard turn back up to a very bullish condition (from last week's neutral condition). The mean average is up about 36 pts overall. The bears turned off their shorts and have shifted to a bullish condition. The bulls remain long and leveraged and their numbers increased as well. One note of caution is that whenever there is a large shift in the mean average (bullish or bearish) there can be a short term market reaction in the opposite direction. This means there is a chance we see some weakness over the next couple of days or so. If we get that weakness, it isn't likely to last too long. Looking out more than a couple of days I would expect higher stock prices.

This is a very interesting development in the NAAIM reading. The mean average has not been this high for some time.

 

[coolhand]

The bears woke up a bit this week as the latest NAAIM reading shows more than an 11 point drop in the mean average. The bears among these money managers went from neutral to fully short (not leveraged) this week, while the bulls remained fully leveraged long. The reading itself is back to a neutral condition. Are the bears going to get any satisfaction this coming week? We'll see. There are certainly enough potential headlines to generate some action.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading bumped up about 6.5 pts, which puts it about where it was the week before last. This puts it back into a modestly bullish stance, but I would place emphasis on "modestly". The bears took off their shorts and and are sitting neutral now. The bulls remain leveraged long and their long positions edged up a bit, which is why the mean average moved up a few points.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading dipped about 6 pts, which now takes it from modestly bullish to neutral. The bears remain 50% short, but not leveraged, while the bulls remain leveraged long. The dip in the mean average appears to be due to a small drop in the number of bulls.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading dipped less than 2pts from last week's reading, which keeps it modestly bullish. The bears did put on some shorts (50%), but no leveraged short positions. The bulls remain leveraged long and a few more bulls may have been minted. Still, the picture remains mixed in my view as something is keeping these money managers from getting overly bullish or bearish (as far as the mean average goes). Overall, the bulls continue to get the nod here.

 

[coolhand]

Last week, the NAAIM money managers went from bullish to neutral, but were close to getting into bearish territory. This week, the mean average rose about 16pts and that puts the reading into a modestly bullish condition. The bears closed all their shorts and the bulls remain long and leveraged.

The reading doesn't tell us a whole lot given that the reading continues to project a picture of caution. But the bulls among them have been largely steadfast overall in their conviction to the long side, so there is that.

I continue to suggest keeping your finger on the trigger as this market rides the uncertain nature of the economic (and banking) landscape.

 

[nasa1974]

As has been a weekly trend the past few weeks, these money managers shifted gears once again. We got a healthy bullish reading last week, and this week the reading fell 27 points to a neutral reading, and it isn't far from getting into bearish territory. Looking at the numbers, the bears went 50% short, but not leveraged and not in big numbers either. The bulls remain fully leveraged and long, but the number of bulls dipped.

It's the same old situation with the positioning of these managers as they get cautious about every other week. The numbers seem to tell me that this market is likely going to remain resilient at the very least as the bulls remain committed (even if a few went neutral), while the bears remain wary of the short side overall. Still, this market is uneven and there remains much concern about the economy and its potential impact on all things financial to warrant keeping a finger on the trigger to either bail in or out (in whole or in part).

Excellent information as always. Thank you.

 

[coolhand]

As has been a weekly trend the past few weeks, these money managers shifted gears once again. We got a healthy bullish reading last week, and this week the reading fell 27 points to a neutral reading, and it isn't far from getting into bearish territory. Looking at the numbers, the bears went 50% short, but not leveraged and not in big numbers either. The bulls remain fully leveraged and long, but the number of bulls dipped.

It's the same old situation with the positioning of these managers as they get cautious about every other week. The numbers seem to tell me that this market is likely going to remain resilient at the very least as the bulls remain committed (even if a few went neutral), while the bears remain wary of the short side overall. Still, this market is uneven and there remains much concern about the economy and its potential impact on all things financial to warrant keeping a finger on the trigger to either bail in or out (in whole or in part).

 

[coolhand]

The latest NAAIM reading shows these money managers shifting gears once again as the mean average jumped almost 20 points and went back to a bullish condition. This is the highest reading since mid-February. The bears not only turned off their leveraged positions, but they took their shorts off too. The bulls remain leveraged long.

This reading certainly suggests some measure of upside in the days ahead.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading, which was bullish last week, has seen a drop in the mean average of about 14pts and that puts it into a neutral to modestly bullish condition.

The bulls remain leveraged long with just a modest drop in the number of bulls. The bears, who were short only 50% (and not leveraged) last week are now leveraged 50%, so they apparently sense a pullback is near.

I would say that while a pullback may come soon, as long as the bulls remain leveraged long and have numbers on their side this market is likely going to remain resilient.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM mean average reading moved higher by almost 8 points; not a huge move, but more bullish. This takes the reading from neutral/modestly bullish to bullish. Still, this is not to be interpreted as a green light for bulls. We have seen much higher bullish readings for months on end quite some time ago. There remains caution among these money managers. The numbers show the bears remain 50% short, but not leveraged. The number of bears increased a bit. The bulls remain leveraged long and they increased their numbers some as well.

For the current moment, the bulls get the nod and the market is likely to bias higher as it is doing today. Remain wary if you are long, however. That is the takeaway from today's reading.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading saw the mean average move higher (~12 pts) for the 2nd week in a row. The reading is now neutral to modestly bullish. The bears cut their short positions from 100% to 50%. The bulls remain fully leveraged long and the number of bulls rose modestly.

The picture being painted by this smart money is hardly one of upside conviction at this point, but more like the shuffling of positions based on short term perspectives. The momentum remains in favor of the bulls, but there remains a healthy amount of skepticism among these money managers in either market direction.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading saw the mean average move back up about 11 points. I am seeing this reading as neutral now after being bearish last week. Looking at the numbers, the bears took off their leveraged short positions, but remain short. The bulls remain leveraged long and there were some new bulls added to the rolls, which is largely why the mean average moved up. Overall, it's a mixed picture as has been the case quite often.