coolhand's Account Talk

This week's NAAIM mean average fell almost 21 pts. The reading was quite bullish last week and this week's reading I would say is moderately bullish. The bears have gone from 50% short (no leverage) last week to fully short and leveraged this week. So, we have a shift that while still bullish overall, shows some measure of concern on downside possibilities. It's tough to get excited about the downside though when the S&P 500 is hitting fresh all-time highs. I would say that this market may very well continue to probe higher. Things can obviously still change, but until they do the nod goes to the bulls.
 
This week's NAAIM reading ticked higher by less than 2 pts, which keeps the reading very bullish. Last week, there were no shorts in the numbers, but there are some managers that have taken a 50% short position (not leveraged) this week. There can't be very many of them as the mean average is fairly high. Still, those managers who have opened short positions may be thinking it's time to have exposure to the possibility of a reversal down the road.

Given the collective long side leveraged exposure they continue to have, I am anticipating more upside for now, but be wary of this market. Things could change quickly.
 
The latest NAAIM reading shows the mean average rising another 6.5 pts (or so), which makes it even more bullish than it was last week. There are no bears in the poll. Of course, the bulls remain long and leveraged. No change in the weekly forecast. I expect more upside (overall) over the next few days on this reading.
 
This week's NAAIM mean average ticked higher by a little more than 3 pts, which is not particularly significant and keeps the sentiment bullish. Only modest shuffling of the numbers are in evidence, so the outlook remains the same as last week. Higher prices (overall) are likely over the next few days (especially the S&P 500).
 
Last week, I said that this market had been silly to the upside and that silly was known to get even sillier. I think some of the bears at NAAIM must have read my post as they bailed on a good portion of their shorts as the mean average soared more than 30 pts. That puts this sentiment back in a bullish stance. The bears that remain continue to be fully short and leveraged, while the bulls continue to be long and leveraged. It looks like we may get more upside movement for the next few days.
 
I was away from my computer yesterday and so never got around to posting the latest from NAAIM. I guess better late than not. This week's NAAIM reading fell by more than 26 pts. That puts it in a neutral stance. The bears are back to fully short and leveraged again. The bulls remain fully long and leveraged.

With the reading being neutral, this market could go either way or both (volatility?). Friday has the S&P 500 hitting fresh highs, so maybe a reversal early next week? I don't know, but this market has been silly to the upside and silly has been known to get even sillier.
 
This week's NAAIM reading rose about 9 pts, which takes it from modestly bullish to simply bullish. The bears have no short positions after going fully short and leveraged last week. I would say that this reading suggests limited downside with a higher probability of higher prices overall for the next few days.


Sorry Tom, meant to post this in my thread.
 
This week's NAAIM reading fell by almost 32 pts, which takes the reading from very bullish last week to modestly bullish this week. The size of the move could trigger at least a short term bounce in the market. Also, the bears are back as the reading shows fully short and leveraged bearish positioning once again. Overall, since the reading remains on the bullish side, the nod goes to the bulls.

So, last week the NAAIM data showed zero shorts in the numbers, which can be problematic when both the dumb and smart money are leaning hard in the same direction. But, keep in mind that the NAAIM bears went bullish the week prior to last week, so they probably didn't get hammered as much as it may have seemed as they reaped the benefits of the rally for a couple of weeks before the bottom fell out. This week, it appears we are back to a hedging strategy as we see some bearish positions with the bulk of the positioning on the bullish side.

Hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and a Happy New Year!
 
The bullish march continues this week as the NAAIM mean average ticked up more than 5 pts. They were quite bullish last week and now they are even more bullish this week. There are no bears left. They are pretty close to being all in (long and leveraged).
 
The market looks good for now. Let's hope it doesn't get pushed off the cliff like yesterday. Our ultra bull would be happy today. Peace wherever you are.
 
It has been very interesting to watch how NAAIM is positioned as we enter each new week and this week is no exception. After holding fully leveraged short positions for 5 straight weeks in the face of this parabolic rally, the bears almost all jumped off that ship and on the bull train. The mean average jumped higher almost 20 pts, which makes that reading very bullish. Ordinarily, I'd be bullish too with this reading, but I don't trust this market at all as it feels ever more manipulated as time advances. Be that as it may, this is smart money and it generally doesn't pay to bet against them for long periods of time. Especially when they are all bulled up. But how much longer can this market advance? Does Santa have anything left in his bag?

Well, we are going to find out soon enough as NAAIM believes the bull party continues on for now.
 
The NAAIM mean average ticked up less than 2 pts today, so it remains moderately bullish. The bears remain fully leveraged short and the bulls are fully leveraged long. Their positioning tells me that things are not as rosy as some would have us believe. The bulls continue to remain favored for now.
 
This week's NAAIM mean average fell a little more than 5 pts, which keeps the reading moderately bullish. The numbers didn't change all that much as the bears remain fully leveraged short and the bulls remain fully leveraged long. So, just some shuffling of positions here. I do note that this is the 4th consecutive week that the bears have been fully leveraged short, so they seem rather committed to this position (keep in mind that they probably have leveraged long positions too). But, in my view it still serves as a warning that things can go South at some point and given the leverage being used and the tenacity of their short side commitment, it could happen quickly. It is as though they do not want to entirely miss out on an anticipated move lower (yeah, we know how much faster we can go down than up). But until something happens to turn things around, the bulls remain favored.
 
The latest NAAIM mean average reading bumped up a bit more than 3 pts this week, which keeps it moderately bullish. The bears remain fully leveraged short and the bulls remain fully leveraged long. It looks like more upside in the short term, but a shot lower mixed into the bullish market bias would not be a surprise.
 
This week's NAAIM mean average ticked up again this week, this time by almost 6 pts. I'd say it is now moderately bullish. The bears remain fully leveraged short and the bulls remain fully leveraged long. Overall, it's really not a much different picture from last week. These managers are looking both ways, but the bulls get the nod again this week.
 
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