coolhand's Account Talk

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joblin20 said:
Don't know when, but a substantial pullback is probably right around the corner.
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absolutely...you don't have to capture every dollar by trying to pick the top...no one ever lost money taking a profit...seeya in mid February.

Sent from my SM-A115U using Tapatalk
 
Tsunami said:
Tom McClellan commentary on how to use the NAAIM survey data. Seems to me (from staring at his charts) that it's more useful in identifying bottoms than tops. Very high reading like this weeks survey could be an early warning sign....

https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/looking_deeper_at_the_naaim_survey_data/
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I have to agree that it doesn't seem like a very high reading for the "most bearish" corresponds that closely with a top. There are only three other days the most bearish reading has been at 75 or higher - all in 2017 (9/27/17; 10/4/17; and 12/13/17) and the S fund rose from $46.00 to $46.75 to $47.90 on those days. The S fund continued to rise and peaked at $54.68 8/31/18 and didn't go below $46.00 until December 2018, a year after the very high NAAIM bearish mark of 75. I am sticking with the "smart" money for a bit longer. Good luck to all.
 
Good discussion. As I said last week, prior the latest NAAIM reading, I am wary of this market now that a new admin is in place. I may be bullish, but I'm not married to my sentiment. That's the key. Be flexible folks. NAAIM is not perfect, but it has a great track record for buy and holders as well as timers if you pay attention to your indicators. I have also said that I keep myself plugged into other elements that can affect the financial markets that I do not discuss on the board.

So, yes I'm bullish, but looking for signs of potential trouble. We may or may not see it, but I think risk is rising just the same.
 
The bulls had another good week, last week, tacking on almost 1.9% on both the S&P and DWCPF indexes.

SPX.png
DWCPF.png

Friday saw another mixed day, with the S&P dipping and the DWCPF rising. Both charts remain bullish with price hovering near its all-time high.

NYAD.png

Cumulative breadth rose modestly on Friday.

The TSP Talk sentiment survey came in less bullish, but still bullish heading into the new week. NAAIM is flat out bullish.

Market character has not changed. The bull market continues to defy expectations for many traders and investors. While I am bullish, I am not complacent. Market character can change very quickly and if that change is more than short term, it needs to be recognized quickly or suffer the consequences. That's much easier said than done; especially for TSP investors who don't have much flexibility.

I am wary of this market now, but as long as NAAIM remains bullish along with the indicators, I see little reason to get bearish. That does not mean taking unnecessary risk, but that varies from one person to another. It could mean being all-in for one person and partially in for another or not in at all. I provide my perspective and narrative to help you in your own personal decision making. Currently, I think risk is rising, but that does not mean the market will change. It just means the chances of more than token selling pressure is increasing. Serious selling pressure may or may not manifest. That's why I am watching my indicators.

I remain bullish. Good luck everyone!!
 
Thanks for the voice of reason Cool! I am a nervous investor and tend to jump too soon. Usually leave money on the table going in and getting out!:smile:
 
After spending the first hour or so in positive territory, the market took a quick nose dive into negative territory. The selling didn't last long at all and the buyers stepped in and slowly took the market back near or above the neutral line by the close.

SPX.png
DWCPF.png

You can see the long tails on the candlesticks. Price remains near the top on both charts.

NYAD.png

Breadth dipped a bit today, but remains bullish.

Well, as odd and a bit concerning as the fast sell-off today was, the market came back. This is a strong bull. I remain bullish.
 
The market started out positive again today, but it quickly headed south, struggling in choppy trade all the way into the close. Both the S&P and DWCPF closed out in negative territory.

SPX.png
DWCPF.png

So, we have weakness in the short term (to this point), but no technical damage worthy of concern. Momentum is now falling on the DWCPF, but still flat on the S&P. I note that RSI on the DWCPF has fallen out of overbought territory.

NYAD.png

Cumulative breadth was also weak today, but remains bullish.

The after-market is flat as type this. The reality is that the selling we are currently seeing is not unusual or even unexpected. It's just weakness, which may be setting up for another push higher. Keep in mind that the smart money was bullish, so I'm not anticipating a change in market character right now. We'll see how things go as we go further into the week.

I remain bullish.
 
Today's very negative open may be a warning that market character is changing. I have harbored some concern that with a new admin the market may change. Consider a defensive plan if this weakness is not reversed. We'll see if the bulls counter today. NAAIM reports tomorrow.
 
While I've maintained my bullishness for some now, I've cautioned that I am wary of this market even as the indicators (and smart money) were still largely bullish. Market character can change quickly under the right (or wrong) circumstance. In this case, a new administration was a potential circumstance because the market is always looking ahead and if sees something it doesn't like it will let everyone know it. Is this what we are seeing now? Perhaps.

SPX.png
DWCPF.png

We got a deep decline today (for one day) and some technical lines were broken to the downside. Price on the S&P is not far from testing its rising 50 dma. Volume was not high, which is interesting. Momentum on both charts is falling.

NYAD.png

Cumulative breadth went negative today.

We've seen this kind of action before on a number of occasions, though not recently. I'd like to think that the market is going to bottom and turn back up and maybe it will, but there may be more going on than is obvious (behind the scenes). NAAIM reports tomorrow and that will help a little bit to see what they think moving forward. But early last year it took them an extended time to react to bearish action so I don't want get complacent.

I am inclined to get bearish here even without a fresh NAAIM reading. I do have a bearish breadth reading and it comes on a long-in-the-tooth bull market with a new administration in charge. We also have technical damage, which is still not severe, but notable as all deep declines have start somewhere.

For now, I am going neutral until I see the futures tomorrow morning along with tomorrow's NAAIM reading. It's certainly possible that the market comes back, but I have a feeling that market changes may be starting to manifest. It may still take a few days or more before the market's true intent is known.
 
Big rally today. We can see how hard it's going to be to guess where this market is going. Yes, it's still a bull market, but that's not forever. The question is more about how much longer it's going to go on. I'm still waiting for NAAIM to report.
 
coolhand said:
Big rally today. We can see how hard it's going to be to guess where this market is going. Yes, it's still a bull market, but that's not forever. The question is more about how much longer it's going to go on. I'm still waiting for NAAIM to report.
Click to expand...

CH,
Looks like the NAAIM went down to 83.51... less bullish for sure.
 
hotwings said:
CH,
Looks like the NAAIM went down to 83.51... less bullish for sure.
Click to expand...

Yes, it's less bullish by a good bit, but still not bearish. This is not a go signal; this tells me they have the caution flag out too. It's too soon to be sure if the market is rolling over. As I said yesterday, "It may still take a few days or more before the market's true intent is known."
 
After yesterday's heaving sell-off, the market opened on a positive note. The S&P continued to rise into mid-day then peaked and sold down into the close, erasing much of its intraday gains. The DWCPF was more up and down, peaking later in the afternoon than the S&P, but also sold down in the final hour or so. Both closed positive, but the late afternoon selling pressure is not bullish.

SPX.png
DWCPF.png

Price remains well below the peak on both charts. Momentum remains negative. The 50 dma is a very possible target.

NYAD.png

Cumulative breadth flipped positive again, but that's not reassuring given the afternoon swoon.

NAAIM saw a sizable drop in bullishness today, but they are still bullish. They appear to be waiting to see if the market is really rolling over or whether the bulls are going to trample the bears again.

I am not as confident about this market as I was. Anything can still happen, but I tend to think market character may be changing. My sentiment is neutral, but I think the selling may not be over. Let's see of the bulls prove me wrong.
 
The bears took price lower today. The action started out negative in morning trading, but price rose from opening lows and peaked about 1 hour after the open. The DWCPF was positive at the peak. But after that, it was a choppy ride downhill till midday and then a feeble attempt to recover that failed.

SPX.png
DWCPF.png

Price on the S&P is now testing the 50 dma. It's holding for now, but I'm not confident that will last. The DWCPF is faring a bit better and remains well above that same key average. Momentum is diving. Volume is elevated, but not panicky.

NYAD.png

Breadth reversed from its short-lived pop into positive territory yesterday and fell back into negative territory.

I do not feel good about this market right now. I've allowed the indicators and sentiment to give me a better picture and for the bulls to prove they still have control, but I'm not seeing that right now. NAAIM backed off their bullishness late last week, but like me, appears to be making the market prove where it's going.

The Gamestop story is very interesting and I believe that this may be evidence that the game is changing. I would not be surprised if more stories appear in the days/weeks ahead that are out of the ordinary with regard to the market.

I am going modestly bearish after being neutral the past 2 trading days. The market may still turn around, but risk is very elevated in my opinion.
 
Something's afoot. Watch silver. I'm seeing panic buying in some circles. I am even seeing 100oz bars on ebay for $600 to $1,000/oz. I think these folks are early, but the financial system is being tested. Money Metals Exchange has halted all silver sales till tomorrow morning. They are out of inventory under heavy demand this weekend. Just something to think about and investigate.
 
coolhand said:
Something's afoot. Watch silver. I'm seeing panic buying in some circles. I am even seeing 100oz bars on ebay for $600 to $1,000/oz. I think these folks are early, but the financial system is being tested. Money Metals Exchange has halted all silver sales till tomorrow morning. They are out of inventory under heavy demand this weekend. Just something to think about and investigate.
Click to expand...

Reddit uses have initiated a short squeeze Silver buy. All those folks who spent the last couple of days playing GameStop stock have now jumped into silver.

See https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/31/investing/silver-price-squeeze-reddit-wallstreetbets/index.html


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Trap? Wall Street will probably punish (take their money) these traders eventually - or at least the novice stragglers who think this will be easy money.
 
I don't think there is anything novice about what is happening. Futures are up right now. Let's see how they trade to start the new week.
 
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