coolhand's Account Talk

[nasa1974]

Last week saw somewhat of a reversal of fortune between the S&P and the DWCPF. For the week, the S&P was up more than 1%, while the DWCPF was down more than 1%. What do we make of that? I can't read much into it given that last week was the last trading week of year and the quarter. Now we start a new year and a new quarter.

Friday's action was modestly negative for both indexes, but the yearly gains were impressive; especially for the DWCPF, which was up more than 31%.

As January goes, so goes the year is an often quoted axiom among traders. I remain bullish as we head into the new trading year.

Interesting for January 2020 the "F" fund was a positive 0.38 while the "C, S & I" funds were negative 0.02, 0.35 & 0.89 respectively. Of course the "C, S & I" funds tanked in February and March. But all funds ended up positive by the end of the year.

 

[coolhand]

So, the first trading day of the year starts us out on a negative note. That's not a good sign at face value and could be a problem if there is follow through.




The S&P gave up most of it's past week gains, but it did close well off the lows of the day. But that candlestick isn't pretty. The DWCPF continued to give up gains, now closing negative for 5 out of the past 6 trading days. Momentum is falling on the DWCPF.



Cumulative breadth remains bullish, but it was negative today and is no longer ascending at the rate it did for all of November into early December.

We did see NAAIM rein in their bullishness to some extent the past 2 weeks. It is important to remember though, that they were still positioned in a moderately bullish stance. However, they can change their sentiment whenever they want as they are certainly not held to the sentiment they reported on any given Thursday. As I said last week, they may have tempered their bullishness because they are waiting to see if anything changes as we end one year and start another. And something "may" be changing.

Futures are positive right now (Monday evening), but that doesn't mean much of anything other than perhaps there is no panic selling. Still, I think it would be prudent to reduce risk for the time being until the market makes a bolder statement one way or the other.

I am going from bullish to neutral.

 

[grimmjsg123]

From the futures we have more bold statements ahead.

 

[coolhand]

So, after Monday's first trading day of the year loss, the market follows up with a bounce on the 2nd day. While it was a decent bounce, it didn't retrace all of Monday's losses on the S&P. The DWCPF retraced almost all of its losses.




We can see from the charts that the uptrend has at least stalled (short to mid-term) for now, but the charts still remain bullish. Technical damage is still limited.



Cumulative breadth remains bullish.

This market isn't exactly easy to figure out right now. A lot of potentially market moving events are in play this month. Some are not visible yet. Today's bounce calls into question how this month is going to go. And it may stay that way (or not) for the time being.

I am going to remain neutral. I'd like to see what NAAIM does later this week once they've had time to assess the first week's trading activity.

 

[coolhand]

The rally may have faded a bit today, but it still closed with good gains.




I note that both charts show price probing fresh all-time highs today, but neither was able to close at that level. However, this market could propel past resistance (we're still in a bull market after all). I suspect it will, but I'm not sure the market is ready for it just yet. Momentum is starting to turn back up on the DWCPF, but is still flat on the S&P.



Cumulative breadth is looking better and remains bullish. This signal has been bullish for more than 2 months now.

I went neutral earlier this week because of the transition from one year to the next and the fact that the indexes were struggling a bit (especially the DWCPF). Now, we have a 2-day rally that has retraced a good portion of previous losses, which makes me wonder if the rally if ready to now continue. NAAIM was moderately bullish and if the market continues to bias higher they are likely to remain that way when we see the latest sentiment reading tomorrow.

I'll stay neutral for now.

 

[coolhand]

NAAIM came in more bullish today. I'm going from neutral back to bullish now.

 

[coolhand]

Yesterday, I said that while the market was probing all-time highs it wasn't able to close at those levels. I also said I wasn't sure if the market was ready to do such, but that I did expect it to happen at some point. Today, the market left little doubt where it wants to go as the bulls ran rampant over the bears.




The charts sure look like they are breaking out the upside again. The DWCPF wasted no time getting overbought once more. We know what happened the last time it got overbought. It stayed that way for about 5 weeks (not saying we are about to see a repeat of sorts, but hey, you never know). Momentum is moving higher on both charts now.



Cumulative breadth moved higher, of course and remains bullish.

The big news is that NAAIM, which was already moderately bullish, got more bullish. What's not to like if you're a bull?

I have moved from neutral to bullish today.

 

[coolhand]

The market had another good week, last week. Especially the S fund.




I don't know how long these indexes can keep powering higher, but they remain bullish. Friday's action saw both indexes hit fresh all-time highs. There is no resistance above on either chart either. Momentum is rising on both charts and both are also overbought.



Cumulative breadth remains bullish.

My indicators remain bullish and that includes the smart money, of course.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

It was a negative day for the S&P 500 and a neutral day for the DWCPF. The action changed nothing.




Price remains quite elevated on both charts. Momentum is still pointed up.



Cumulative breadth fell a bit today, but remains bullish.

It may be uncomfortable holding stocks for some folks right now, given current events, but the indicators are what matters and they still point up. This remains a bull market until it isn't. If the smart money backs off, so will I, but they are pretty solidly bullish as of last Thursday.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The DWCPF hit a fresh all-time high today, tacking on about 1.5%. The S&P closed slightly above the neutral line.




While the S&P didn't follow the DWCPF higher today, it's still biased to the upside. Momentum is pointing up on both charts, but the DWCPF has been leading for some time now.



Cumulative breadth remains very bullish.

The indicators haven't changed. They are bullish, so I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The market was mixed today, trading up and down through the day.




No changes to the charts. Market character has not changed, so the trend obviously remains up.



Cumulative breadth dipped on the day, but remains bullish.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bullish.

 

[Happy_Trails]

The NAAIM reading seems really bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The NAAIM reading seems really bullish.

Yes. It's up there. Looks like the trend will remain to the upside.

 

[FAAM]

Wow - THX for the update info Mr. CH! I'm conservative investing wise these days (close to retiring) and uncomfortable generally with the prices of equities & potential bubble(s) these days... yet was going to perhaps IFT more to equities but missed the deadline this morning. I read the market it so bullish in recent years, now and likely more for future due to the FED, liquidity pumping -- no where else to put $s to try to make some capital gains these days.

 

[coolhand]

We got another choppy day with a mixed close. Once again, small caps are leading the pack.




We got a fresh all-time closing high on the DWCPF, while the S&P was down and has been dancing sideways over the past days. Momentum is rising on the DWCPF and is hinting at falling on the S&P, but I am not anticipating a ton of downside on the S&P. Historically, when small caps are doing well it bodes well for the economy and market overall. Still, some sectors may not fare well even in a bull market.



Breadth is still stretching to the upside and remains bullish.

NAAIM came in more bulled up today and is now about as bullish I've ever seen them.

I remain bullish, especially for the DWCPF.

 

[coolhand]

The market closed mixed on the week, last week. The S fund posted a decent gain, while the C fund posted a sizable loss.




We can still see that the S&P is struggling to maintain altitude, but it is still a bullish chart with price not all that far from the peak. The DWCPF dipped Friday (as did the S&P), but price remains much closer to its peak. Momentum is turned down a bit on both charts. All in all, technical damage is quite contained to this point.

However, we have a week coming up that promises to have potentially market moving headlines. That doesn't mean it's
bullish or bearish, just potentially market moving in one direction or the other (or both).



Cumulative breadth dipped on Friday, but the signal remains bullish.

TSP Talk sentiment came in pretty bulled again, but the smart money is also bulled up. This is bullish overall.

I remain bullish, but will be watching this week closely for signs of potential trouble.

 

[coolhand]

The new trading week started off positive, reversing the weakness we saw at the end of last week.




Both charts remain in good shape overall. Momentum has stalled, but price remains not far from the top on both charts.



Cumulative breadth ticked higher and that keeps the chart in a bullish configuration.

So far, there is no hint of any serious issues with the market (aside from being at all-time highs). The smart money was bulled up again last week, so I'm not anticipating any surprises, but headline news can change that if the powers that be wish to shake things up. Let's see how the rest of the week goes.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

And just like that both charts are sporting fresh closing all-time highs.




Yes, the charts certainly remain bullish. The bull is still kicking pretty hard. Momentum is hinting at turning back up (it was rather neutral).



Cumulative breadth has also hit another all-time high and remains bullish.

Has anything changed? Not so you'd notice by the charts, but a new administration has now taken over. That does not make me comfortable as markets sometimes get spooked while changes of all kinds are thrown around by those newly in charge. It's really just something to be aware of at this point. I'll be paying close attention to any signs of potential trouble, bull market or no market, in the days and weeks ahead.

Let's see where NAAIM is tomorrow. Potential trouble doesn't have to manifest immediately.

I remain bullish, but wary.

 

[coolhand]

NAAIM is now more bullish than I've ever seen them. Looks like the bull party continues for now.

 

[coolhand]

The market took a bit of a breather today.




Price didn't move all that much on either chart. Momentum remains rather neutral, but price remains near the top of the peak.



Cumulative breadth dipped, but remains bullish. In fact, it has been bullish since early November.

The big news is that NAAIM got even more bullish. These money managers are showing no sign of concern as yet.

So, we have a market that is largely defying gravity and smart money that believes there is more fuel for additional gains.

I won't bet against the smart money. I remain bullish.