coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

The market was mixed last week, with major averages posting gains and losses depending on the index. We are seeing what appears to be stock rotation going from larger caps to smaller caps, but that's just what I see on a superficial level. I am not looking "under the hood" so-to-speak as I like to keep my commentary fairly simple.




In the loss column you have the S&P 500, which shed less than 1% last week. On the positive side you have the DWCPF, which posted a weekly gains well above 3%. It's a tale of 2 indexes right now. I tend to believe that this disparity may continue for the time being.



Cumulative breadth remains bullish.

The latest TSP Talk sentiment survey shows a small increase in bullishness, but I still see the reading as neutral overall. We have a bullish NAAIM reading heading into the new week.

I expect the market to continue acting much like it has of late. That is, the DWCPF is likely to outpace the S&P in the short term. I'll take it a week at a time and see how it plays out.

I remain bullish (S Fund). I am neutral on the C Fund.

 

[nasa1974]

Oxford University says their vaccine is 70% effective and could be 90% if tweaked a little bit. Good news for the market.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls began the new week in positive fashion as price continued to rise.




This time, the S&P joined the party, but the DWCPF continues to dominate the action was larger gains. The problem for the S&P is that price is still stuck in a range, while the DWCPF is hitting fresh all-time highs.



Breadth is also hitting fresh all-time highs and is looking quite bullish. Ordinarily I'd expect a pullback on this kind of upside action, but the uneven market and other factors tell me that the bulls may continue to probe higher for the time being. In other words, I'm not looking for much as far the downside goes. Not with NAAIM all bulled up. Until something changes, I'm looking for more of the same.

I remain bullish on the DWCPF and neutral on the S&P 500.

 

[Bill3438]

Isn’t Black Friday a good time to be in the market?

 

[coolhand]

Isn’t Black Friday a good time to be in the market?

Historically, the market tends to be weak heading into Thanksgiving and then gets bullish starting on Black Friday.

 

[coolhand]

Is this rally real yet? I said a few days ago that my gut said that the market has the potential to get silly to the upside. I'm not saying it's silly yet, but the market seems to be working on it.




Price on the DWCPF hit another all-time high. The S&P hit a fresh closing high. That index may be finally getting ready to break out to the upside.



Look at cumulative breadth. This chart is working on silly too.

And we aren't even it the most seasonally positive time of year yet, though we are approaching it. Can "seasonally positive" get more positive than what the DWCPF is already doing? What if it can?

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

NAAIM remains largely unchanged from last week. They are very bullish. Risk remains to the upside; especially smaller caps (S fund).

 

[coolhand]

The bulls had another great week last week. Both the C and I funds posted gains of more than 2% and the S fund almost doubled that at over 4%.




Price on the S&P closed near the top of its trading range. We can see that there are higher lows along the way, so an upside breakout seems to be in the cards. Price on the DWCPF continues an almost relentless push to the upside and it looking incredibly bullish. Many are concerned that this can't last, but trying to time market exhaustion is not an easy thing to do; especially as we enter the most bullish time of the year. As of last Thursday, we certainly don't see the smart money (NAAIM) shying away from being long.



Cumulative breadth on the NYSE continues to impress and remains quite bullish.

The TSP Talk sentiment survey came in heavily bulled up. Don't let that scare you. We have seen our sentiment bulled up for weeks (in the past) without the market diving. And we have NAAIM on our side as well.

So, what would Forrest Gump say about this market? Maybe "Silly is as silly does"?

I still highly suspect that this market will get silly to the upside. I wish I could predict that, but I don't have a crystal ball. Just intuition based on what I am seeing.

 

[ALRetiree]

Let’s hope for the best!

 

[Scout333]

Thing that scares the heck out of me is the lack of anything solid under "Silly markets"! oh well, Best of luck to us all!

 

[coolhand]

Thing that scares the heck out of me is the lack of anything solid under "Silly markets"! oh well, Best of luck to us all!

I have spent many years on an educational journey into the monetary system. I think it would be fair for me to say that I'm not so sure there has ever been anything "solid". It's all smoke and mirrors.

 

[coolhand]

The market took a breather today. It was overdue on the DWCPF in particular.




Price on both charts were down moderately. Volume was elevated. RSI was overbought on the DWCPF and remains overbought even after today's selling. We could see more selling in the short term before a bottom. Looking at the DWCPF we can see that bottoms have been happening quickly the past few weeks.



Cumulative breadth dipped, but remains bullish.

I remain bullish.

 

[nasa1974]

I would be happy if the market takes a little breather this week. Then I'm off the lily pad and back into the "S" fund.

Good luck everybody. I expect another surge once the vaccines get approval for distribution.

 

[coolhand]

It didn't take long for the market to forget Friday's pullback as the major averages started the new week strong. The market gave back some its gains by the close, but closing gains were not insignificant.




The S&P 500 hit a fresh high, while the DWCPF closed near its previous peak.



Cumulative breadth remains bullish.

Nothing has changed. It is obvious that this is a strong bull right now. It is very easy to expect a buying opportunity may come at any time, but bull markets can go further and longer at times than most traders expect. I'm not saying that's what is going to happen here, but it might.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The market gave us a mixed day today, with the S&P advancing modestly while the DWCPF pulled back modestly.




The S&P 500 hit another fresh high on average volume. Momentum is rising modestly (just like price). The DWCPF is still overbought based on its relative strength indicator. I am not concerned with that given we are in a strong bull heading into bullish seasonality.



Breadth continued to power high and remains quite bullish.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Not much change to NAAIM today. It remains very bullish. This is NOT a contrarian indicator.

 

[coolhand]

While the market closed off its highs of the day, it was still an overall positive day on balance.




Price on the S&P 500 closed near neutral on the day, but price on the DWCPF was up almost 1%. We aren't off to the races, but the trend remains to the upside.



Cumulative breadth continues to rise and remains bullish.

NAAIM was relatively unchanged on the day and remains very bullish.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Okay, we are now officially in silly territory. I'm calling it. More so for the DWCPF than the S&P, but cumulative breadth is silly too.

If you are long, you are definitely liking this silly market. :smile:




Price on the DWCPF continues to impress to the upside. I said I wasn't worried about the overbought RSI and you can see why. Price on the S&P is also rising, but not yet overbought. That's another reason I'm not worried about RSI on the DWCPF, because the DWCPF is not a visible index to most folks unless you're a TSP investor.



Cumulative breadth is showing you why price is rising (in a big way). It remains quite bullish.

So, heading into next week we have very strong cumulative breadth, rising price and momentum and bullish smart money. I like that combination.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

It was a lackluster trading today that resulted in mixed close among the indexes.




The S&P fell modestly, while the DWCPF eked out a gain.



Breadth fell modestly, but obviously remains very bullish.

I'll keep it shorter than usual tonight. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Back on November 16th I said...

"I have a hunch that this market could get silly to the upside. I can't predict it, but I would not be surprised with a rally that has even the bulls shaking their heads. I'm looking forward to seeing how this actually plays out."

Today, we got yet another rally on top of the gains over the past 3 plus weeks. Admittedly, the DWCPF has been outpacing the S&P 500 during this time, but up is up.




That ramp from early November on the DWCPF is certainly impressive. So is the S&P, but it doesn't sport as much gain as the DWCPF. Momentum remains bullish. Remember when I said not to get too concerned about the DWCPF getting overbought? It's now been more than 2 weeks since it entered overbought territory.



That's quite a ramp on the NYAD too. It's about as a bullish as I've ever seen it.

I know it's hard to believe this market, but the market environment supports what we are seeing. Now we know why NAAIM got bullish. And this is not unusual for this group of money managers.

I remain bullish.