coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

The TSP stock funds were all up more than 7% each, last week. Friday's action saw a modest dip to cap the huge rally.




The S&P 500 is still pushing against resistance at the October peak and there is more resistance just above that at the September peak. Price on the DWCPF needs to show us it can hold its all-time high hit last Thursday. Volume was lackluster on Friday.



Breadth fell on Friday, but the signal remains bullish.

The TSP Talk sentiment survey came in bullish (assuming we are now smart money). NAAIM was rather neutral, but showed little evidence of bearish leanings.

The neutral NAAIM reading may be profit taking prior to a pullback, or it could also mean the smart money is waiting for something else to happen before they commit (bullish or bearish). I am not sure. And there is still uncertainty for the market to deal with in general right now.

I am leaning modestly bullish, but would not be surprised with a pullback at any time.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls came out hard to start the new week off, but that was the morning session. And while the averages closed with nice gains, they closed well off their lows of the day as price fell dramatically in late afternoon trade. Something is going on. I saw this article early in the trading day. Make of it what you will.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/most-major-retail-brokerages-are-suiffering-outages

And did you see what happened to precious metal? Slammed.




The biggest thing that jumps out at me is that volume stick. Huge. And notice that the S&P 500 did push past its previous all-time high before getting swamped with selling.

What do we make of this action? Why did most retail brokerages suffer outages today? Why did NAAIM go largely neutral last week?



Breadth on the NYSE did move higher and remains bullish.

I have more questions than answers about what to make of the current market environment. And something tells me today won't be the only interesting trading day we'll see in the coming days/weeks.

Futures are up currently. I generally have no reason to be bearish, but the late day selling does make me uneasy.

I am remaining modestly bullish. My angst may be a good thing.

 

[bmneveu]

View attachment 47635.

Look at all the wicks on top of the candlesticks on this leg up. Now look at every other leg up. Hardly any. Not a good sign.

 

[grimmjsg123]

Clearly a strong rejection. I am glad I held both moves in my quiver for November and moved out the last day in October. We shall see if we consolidate or we have another pullback coming; my magic ball says yes as the tech stocks that has held this up during this pandemic sold off on the Vaccine news. We are at the upper Bollinger Band at close yesterday even with the pullback so nowhere for it to run up and its overbought. As you said, that candle from yesterday looks wicked.

 

[coolhand]

The bears tried to take price lower today, but they were not successful as price on both the S&P and DWCPF closed near the neutral line. I will say that other indexes fared better or worse depending on the index.




Volume was not as impressive today, but it was still high. There does appear to be a battle raging with gaps and long wicks. And there may be rotation going on as well given how poorly technology fared today. While this market may have a bearish feel about it, price always has the last say and so far it's staying elevated (on the indexes we care about as far as TSP goes). Be that as it may, the S&P is also battling resistance. The DWCPF is faring better, but it hasn't really proved all that much to this point. Normally, I'd be more concerned about the gaps, but this market can be very deceptive. I said yesterday that I had some angst about this market, but I also remind myself that NAAIM, while neutral, is not showing any inclination to short this market (as of last Thursday). So that tells me to be careful about the downside until more proof is offered.



Breadth on the NYSE rose today and hit a fresh all-time high. Nothing bearish about that.

As I mentioned yesterday, this market is showing mixed signals depending on the index. I anticipate the market will continue to act in ways that may keep us guessing what is going on and where it is actually headed. So far, the rally has not been broken so much as stalled. It may be a peak and it may not.

I remain modestly bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Happy Veteran's Day to all you Veteran's! :smile:

Today's action had a more "normal" feel to it than that of the past 2 trading days. The bulls tacked on solid gains on normal volume.




The uptrend still remains intact. Momentum is still rising. Price on the S&P is still contending with resistance, so that's a area we want to watch.



Breadth leveled off today, but remains bullish.

We get a fresh NAAIM reading tomorrow. As always, that will help frame my outlook for the following week. I remain modestly bullish.

 

[Cactus]

Looks like the NAAIM got more bullish today as well.

 

[coolhand]

Looks like the NAAIM got more bullish today as well.

Yes, they got bulled up. They continue to shun the downside, so the risk remains up as far as they are concerned. Yes, money can be made shorting if one is nimble and generally operating outside of TSP, but the bigger money appears to be to the upside.

 

[nasa1974]

I guess we need a down day. Since the end of October the "C" fund is up $4.12, the "S" fund is up $5.43 and the "I" fund is up $3.48.

 

[coolhand]

I guess we need a down day. Since the end of October the "C" fund is up $4.12, the "S" fund is up $5.43 and the "I" fund is up $3.48.

I said something along those lines the other day. Market action (and associated "news") seemed to have a bearish feel to it on some days (understandably so), but taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture (longer term vice short term), price is doing fine. There are those that do want the market driven lower, but then there are those who do not. Who has had overall control? The bulls.

And the smart money (NAAIM) is betting on it to continue, but we also have to remember that weakness can still manifest even if price goes higher as part of the trend.

 

[coolhand]

The market fell today, but price remains in a multi-day range over the past week. Coiling for a move higher?




We can see from the charts that price has stalled. Volume has fallen off since earlier this week. Momentum is still rising, but weakening a bit.



Breadth fell, but still remains bullish.

The latest NAAIM reading shows this smart money getting bulled up again. Whatever caused them to go neutral last week has apparently passed. One of the main takeaways was that they never showed much inclination to get bearish. It hasn't been easy to figure out this market, even for these money managers who were bullish a few weeks ago when the market took a dive. That was unusual, but it can happen. Generally speaking, I want to be aligned with them more often than not.

I am going from modestly bullish to simply bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Friday's action saw the bulls rally the market to cap a great week. All 3 TSP stock funds were up more than 2%. And so far, all 3 TSP stock funds are up close to 10% or more in the month of November and we are only mid-month.




The action may have had a bearish feel to it earlier in the week, but the charts themselves are not bearish. The brief turbulence was unusual and many (including myself) were questioning whether the rally had peaked. While the market hasn't exactly begun another leg higher since the peak from last Monday, price on both charts has closed near its closing peaks. Momentum is still rising.



Breadth turned right back up after slipping on Thursday and closed at a fresh all-time high.

The TSP Talk survey came in neutral this week. We are not quite as optimistic as NAAIM, which came in bulled up.

My indicators remain bullish, which includes the smart money. I want to see price clear (close) above the intra-day peaks from last Monday. With the smart money bulled up again, the chances are good that this market will trend higher. I would only caution that headlines may still cause continued intermittent turbulence, so we have to be prepared for that.

I remain bullish.

 

[amoeba]

headlines? are we talking about the highly anticipated PFE vaccine ph III trial 2 month safety checkpoint data to be released next week, or something else?

Medically, 2 months shouldn't mean much (typical trial monitoring is 2 years) but the market bit similar duration effectiveness data hook, line, and sinker, and that's also going to be the basis for any EUA application. Whether people get vaccinated, and it actually works (or fails), remains to be seen.

Unless POTUS is a screaming fibber on this, I tend to think this data will meet the hype, and the market will react again, at least briefly.

Sent from my SM-A115U using Tapatalk

 

[coolhand]

headlines? are we talking about the highly anticipated PFE vaccine ph III trial 2 month safety checkpoint data to be released next week, or something else?

Medically, 2 months shouldn't mean much (typical trial monitoring is 2 years) but the market bit similar duration effectiveness data hook, line, and sinker, and that's also going to be the basis for any EUA application. Whether people get vaccinated, and it actually works (or fails), remains to be seen.

Unless POTUS is a screaming fibber on this, I tend to think this data will meet the hype, and the market will react again, at least briefly.

Sent from my SM-A115U using Tapatalk

Headlines can mean anything. There is a lot going on besides the Vax.

 

[coolhand]

Today's positive action produced fresh closing highs on both the S&P 500 and DWCPF. It's getting real for the bulls. The next up-leg may be in progress (maybe).




Both charts got more bullish today. Momentum is still rising. The DWCPF is near overbought territory (RSI). I would not get overly concerned with "overbought" just yet. The market may be just beginning to breakout after a short period of volatility.



Breadth is screaming to the upside right now. I can't ignore that any more than I can ignore a bullish NAAIM reading.

I have a hunch that this market could get silly to the upside. I can't predict it, but I would not be surprised with a rally that has even the bulls shaking their heads. I'm looking forward to seeing how this actually plays out.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The market had a mixed close today, with the S&P 500 pulling back modestly while the DWCPF tacked on more gains.




Price on the S&P 500 struggled today, but still closed not far off its previous high. Price on the DWCPF hit another all-time closing high. That chart looks particularly bullish. Today's rally did push the DWCPF into overbought territory as indicated by RSI. I don't consider that to be a big issue with this particular index in the short term.



Breadth ticked a bit higher today and remains bullish.

There does appear to be more stock rotation going on in the market. Historically, when small caps lead it's a bullish sign. But it's still too early to completely embrace that possibility. We could get a pullback at any time, but the trend obviously remains up.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The market was doing well until about mid-day when price weakness began and then continued into close, picking up some steam on the way down. I cautioned yesterday that while I was bullish the market could pullback at any time. So we got a pullback today, but it remains to be seen if there's more downside in store in the short term.




The S&P 500 lost more than 1% and fell back to its recent short-term trading range. Price on the DWCPF fared better than it's counterpart and lost less than 0.4%. The S&P continues to lag the DWCPF. While upside momentum has still not turned on the DWCPF, it has gone flat on the S&P.



Breadth was weak on the day for the NYSE, but it still remains bullish.

I did not see any particular headline today that was used as a reason for the selling, but the market doesn't always need one. Tomorrow, we get our weekly NAAIM reading, so we'll see how much the smart money has shifted their collective stance on the market.

I remain bullish.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

FBN "After the Bell" reported the drop occurred due to additional State closures/restrictions imposed.

 

[coolhand]

NAAIM came in more bulled up. Risk remains to the upside.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls turned the market around today after a bout of weakness on Wednesday. Small caps continued leading large caps.




We can see that price closed at another all-time high on the DWCPF, while price failed to recoup Wednesday's losses on the S&P 500. Momentum continues to rise on the DWCPF and remains flat on the S&P.



Cumulative breadth hit another all-time high on the NYSE and remains bullish.

NAAIM saw an increase in bullishness and is now quite bullish overall.

Stock rotation continues to favor smaller companies. I do suspect that the S fund will continue to outpace the C fund for the time being.

I remain bullish.