coolhand's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
DreamboatAnnie said:
…. even without the medical experts blessings....
Click to expand...

We certainly don't want that. That would all but guarantee a second wave. Although we'll likely see one anyways in the Fall/Winter. The economy will not return to "normal" until a vaccine has been developed and distributed. Until then, the economy will not be firing on all cylinders. We'll be dealing with this for quite some time.
 
Rod said:
We certainly don't want that. That would all but guarantee a second wave. Although we'll likely see one anyways in the Fall/Winter. The economy will not return to "normal" until a vaccine has been developed and distributed. Until then, the economy will not be firing on all cylinders. We'll be dealing with this for quite some time.
Click to expand...

Agree.... but I do believe that while the medical experts are correct, it is also true that waiting until there is barely any Wuhan virus left circulating or waiting for a vaccine will leave us sooooo devastated economically that we as a nation will be badly crippled and highly subject to danger of take over (economically) by other countries or in some other unexpected way..... dark forces we have not yet even thought of. Best we get back to work sooner rather than later and figure a good work around. Some kind of strategy to keep us relatively safe Both from the virus and economic collapse!

Second wave is definitely possible.... best to make or buy some good masks! Just can't stay locked up forever... and dang it, buy American!! :smile:
!!!!
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
...it is also true that waiting until there is barely any Wuhan virus left circulating or waiting for a vaccine will leave us sooooo devastated economically that we as a nation will be badly crippled and highly subject to danger of take over (economically) by other countries or in some other unexpected way.....
Click to expand...

But, the Fed (insert sarcasm) would never allow that to happen...
 
The market pulled back a bit today, but that doesn't hurt the current up-trend. Our sentiment survey went from bearish to neutral for the new week.

I'm keeping it short since there isn't much to add. See you tomorrow.
 
Nnuut, I just listened to the linked X-22 report for today. Thank you! Sounds like a great team. Yep, I do believe that team can accomplish a lot to jump the economy. I am wondering about statements about Fed Reserve being brought under control. :scratchchin
 
He said something about bringing Fed under control of Treasury, So no longer "independent"??? So I am wondering about that.

From Federal Reserve site:

"The U.S. Approach to Central Banking
The framers of the Federal Reserve Act purposely rejected the concept of a single central bank. Instead, they provided for a central banking "system" with three salient features: (1) a central governing Board, (2) a decentralized operating structure of 12 Reserve Banks, and (3) a combination of public and private characteristics.

Although parts of the Federal Reserve System share some characteristics with private-sector entities, the Federal Reserve was established to serve the public interest.

There are three key entities in the Federal Reserve System: the Board of Governors, the Federal Reserve Banks (Reserve Banks), and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board of Governors, an agency of the federal government that reports to and is directly accountable to Congress, provides general guidance for the System and oversees the 12 Reserve Banks.
Within the System, certain responsibilities are shared between the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., whose members are appointed by the President with the advice and consent of the Senate, and the Federal Reserve Banks and Branches, which constitute the System's operating presence around the country. While the Federal Reserve has frequent communication with executive branch and congressional officials, its decisions are made independently."

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/structure-federal-reserve-system.htm

Okay...here is more on very extraordinary action taken by the Fed.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200409a.htm
 
Last edited:
After a moderate pullback to start out the new trading week, the market turned back up and tacked on moderate gains.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

I would think that if the market was going to retest the lows, it would have happened by now. It sure is looking like a "V" bottom. I am still wary of NAAIM being bearish, however. They could be wrong, which doesn't happen all that often.

NYAD.png

Breadth remains bullish.

I am going to remain neutral, but only because of NAAIM.
 
The bears struck back today, preventing the S&P from testing its falling 50 dma.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

The remain in reasonable shape (if you're a bull), but resistance is not far above, so the bulls have some work to do.

NYAD.png

Breadth fell back below its 39 day ema, which flips it negative, but it may be temporary.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. We'll see if the reading shows any movement towards a more bullish stance.
 
The market remained weak today, but it isn't exactly bearish action.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Neither chart shows price dropping all that much below the previous peak. It appears to me that the market is pausing for another push higher. What catalyst(s) might do that? How about reopening the economy, which is now being seriously discussed?

Breadth remains bearish, but the charts are healthy enough in this uptrend to look past that for now.

NAAIM did not change much again. They remain overall bearish, which is at least somewhat puzzling to me. Then again, many of them probably didn't get hurt too bad by the sell-off, so they probably can afford to take a wait and see approach.

I am shifting to a modestly bullish stance.
 
I jumped in today with an itchy trigger finger on the G or F switch back.
S$P embedded for 4 days now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The bulls had a pretty good week last week as all 3 TSP stock funds closed with solid gains, but it was the C fund that tripled the gains of the S and I.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

We can see that price on the S&P is now testing its 50 dma. It is in a solid uptrend. The DWCPF closed at a high (on the current up-leg), but has yet to test its 50 dma. Momentum remains positive on both charts.

NYAD.png

Breadth flipped positive again on the NYSE.

Our TSP sentiment went bearish again, which is in alignment with NAAIM, which remained bearish with last Thursday's reading. They are not falling over themselves to short this market, so avoid taking this reading as more bearish than it is. The fact is, there is a lot happening in the financial system and I doubt many money managers are comfortable right now regardless of their sentiment. It just isn't business as usual.

I went modestly bullish late last week and remain modestly bullish right now. I really don't think that the bears can mount anything of significance to the downside at this time.
 
coolhand said:
The bulls had a pretty good week last week as all 3 TSP stock funds closed with solid gains, but it was the C fund that tripled the gains of the S and I.
Click to expand...

The difference between the C fund and the S fund so far is that the S fund has had larger negative and positive days vs. the C fund. The difference between the C fund and the I fund was that the C fund had better positive days vs. the I fund.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - So long, February!
Replies
0
Views
152
tsptalk
tsptalk
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up - Optimism with Caution
Replies
1
Views
449
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Small caps save the Santa Claus Rally while large caps failed
Replies
0
Views
182
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The bears show up, but the bulls didn't give up
Replies
0
Views
153
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The PPI and tariff talk sent yields lower and stocks higher
Replies
0
Views
155
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top