coolhand's Account Talk

[Mcqlives]

Kudos to Nnuut!

FWIW, CH, if you haven't watched the Pivot Point video tonight, it is worth a watch. I believe it very closely matches your (and others) prognostications. I'm curious what your (And others) opinion are on it.

Sorry I'm throwing this into your thread but I don't think many get into the other parts of the site to see the video's Nnuut posts on a daily basis....and this one needs to be watched just for the information. Even if you disagree with him the information is valuable.

 

[Bravo Sierra]

It is interesting.
I'm tempted to stick with Fauci's line, essentially 'we don't select the timeline, the virus selects the timeline' thing.
But, if the virus has seasonal characteristics, there's a miracle cocktail that mitigates, etc., that scenario becomes pretty viable.
There's a big difference of opinion regarding the depth of the next plunge- s&p 2050, 1820, or anywhere in between.

There is a massive infusion and no one knows the extent of economic damage. What moderates my optimism is that, historically speaking, all the market has done to this point is to have blown off excess and is just now at "reasonable" historic P/E levels with one major caveat- that P/E is looking backwards. Regards.
'

 

[Nordic]

Kudos to Nnuut!

FWIW, CH, if you haven't watched the Pivot Point video tonight, it is worth a watch. I believe it very closely matches your (and others) prognostications. I'm curious what your (And others) opinion are on it.

Sorry I'm throwing this into your thread but I don't think many get into the other parts of the site to see the video's Nnuut posts on a daily basis....and this one needs to be watched just for the information. Even if you disagree with him the information is valuable.

Agreed. I've been watching the Pivot Point videos for the past couple of months and it's now become a must watch for me. His analysis is also in line with Daneric's Elliott wave counts.

 

[Mcqlives]

It is interesting.
I'm tempted to stick with Fauci's line, essentially 'we don't select the timeline, the virus selects the timeline' thing.
But, if the virus has seasonal characteristics, there's a miracle cocktail that mitigates, etc., that scenario becomes pretty viable.
There's a big difference of opinion regarding the depth of the next plunge- s&p 2050, 1820, or anywhere in between.

There is a massive infusion and no one knows the extent of economic damage. What moderates my optimism is that, historically speaking, all the market has done to this point is to have blown off excess and is just now at "reasonable" historic P/E levels with one major caveat- that P/E is looking backwards. Regards.
'

I like the P/E tie in...and the open-ended inference to it looking backwards which begs the question "how far back?". Setting the stage for another open ended question... we have huge amounts of money going out from state governments into social programs. The biggest one right now is unemployment. The State of Illinois yesterday announced it will be unable to maintain unemployment payouts (did not specify an insolvency time) and will be seeking relief from the fed's.
Ask yourself this....what if the federal government says no?

 

[Bullitt]

So what then happens to personal assets based on the dollar such as investments, cash and debt?

Depends on how much other countries decide to debase by. It's all relative. The dollar at $100 on $DXY is deflationary.

I'd be more concerned about the Euro than the US Dollar. Euro is only .03 from a major support line and they just announced this:

Euro-area sovereign bonds surged after the European Central Bank gave itself unlimited room to buy the debt.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-buy-europe-s-bonds-after-ecb-drops-qe-limits

 

[Rod]

Kudos to Nnuut!

FWIW, CH, if you haven't watched the Pivot Point video tonight, it is worth a watch. I believe it very closely matches your (and others) prognostications. I'm curious what your (And others) opinion are on it.

Sorry I'm throwing this into your thread but I don't think many get into the other parts of the site to see the video's Nnuut posts on a daily basis....and this one needs to be watched just for the information. Even if you disagree with him the information is valuable.

Thanks for highlighting this video. He seems rather level-headed.

 

[coolhand]

The overall reading from NAAIM today is that they remain bearish. Of particular note that is that they have increased short positions. Not as much as I've seen before, so they are not shorting with both hands. Still, this adds credence to the speculation that the market will likely retest its lows.

 

[coolhand]

Thanks for highlighting this video. He seems rather level-headed.

I agree. I don't trade the markets these days, but the technical analysis is very good.

 

[coolhand]

The market bounced after Monday's beginning of quarter sell-off.




I don't think it means all that much other than a short term bounce.

Breadth remains bearish.

As I mentioned earlier today, NAAIM came in bearish again, but the bears increased their short positions moderately, which tells me at least some of the smart money is likely looking for a test of the lows or at least more selling this week. There is nothing bullish about this smart money right now, so I'd be uncomfortable going long in the short term without compelling technical analysis otherwise. I don't have any. I primarily go by the smart money who possess their own professional analysis.

I am now bearish.

 

[gronk007]

Coolhand et Al,
Thanks for the posts always. Its been years since I have been on this board but I always appreciated the good information. Probably a dumb question, but i have seen many references in the past to "smart money" and "dumb money" not know what it is. Could you help me understand the indicators that identify and distinguish the two?

Thanks in advance...

 

[coolhand]

Coolhand et Al,
Thanks for the posts always. Its been years since I have been on this board but I always appreciated the good information. Probably a dumb question, but i have seen many references in the past to "smart money" and "dumb money" not know what it is. Could you help me understand the indicators that identify and distinguish the two?

Thanks in advance...

Smart money is generally money managers or traders who are considered market professionals. Dumb money is everyone else. I've learned over time which ones are which. I'm not sure there is a perfect definition, but here's a link with another take on it.

https://nairametrics.com/2020/03/18/smart-money-vs-dumb-money/

I can't find a link that cites which surveys are which, but that doesn't mean one doesn't exist. I don't follow many of them these days. Some are definitely more valuable in terms of utility than others, but that can change over time. I've noted that TSP Talk has probably crossed over into the smart money realm since many on this board, while not necessarily professionals, are market savvy nonetheless. Folks who are not often follow. We've gotten collectively smarter over the years in my opinion. Blame it on Tom. :laugh:

 

[coolhand]

A Great Awakening is coming soon.

Isaiah 26 verse 20-21

Come, my people, enter thou into thy chambers, and shut thy doors about thee: hide thyself as it were for a little moment, until the indignation be overpast.

21 For, behold, the Lord cometh out of his place to punish the inhabitants of the earth for their iniquity: the earth also shall disclose her blood, and shall no more cover her slain.

 

[coolhand]

Losses were heavy in the stock funds last week. Particularly in the DWCPF, which fell much harder than the S&P. That's never a good sign.




Still, price remains well above the lows. But momentum may be poised to turn down. It's hard to say for sure from just that indicator.



Breadth remains bearish.

NAAIM came in bearish last week and the bears among them increased their short positions, but not by a ton. Just enough to expect more selling. We got that on Friday, but I suspect we'll see more selling this week. As I pointed previously, price has not tested the lows and that may yet happen.

TSP Talk went from neutral back heavily bearish. So, we are aligned with NAAIM, which is a good thing.

I remain bearish.

 

[ToddB]

CH is it true that the ’S’ fund is comprised of a lot of energy stocks??
I heard this last week and wondering if true??


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[coolhand]

CH is it true that the ’S’ fund is comprised of a lot of energy stocks??
I heard this last week and wondering if true??


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes. That's the reason for the big disparity between it and the S&P when oil is making big moves.

 

[coolhand]

And just like that the S&P hits a higher high.




These moves are wild and very hard to call. Yes, the S&P closed at a higher high, but not so the DWCPF, so the bulls can't pat themselves on the back just yet. Momentum is moving higher again and that's a good sign at the moment.



Breadth turned up, but remains bearish.

I went bearish when NAAIM started shorting again, but I said it wasn't with both hands. We can see why after today.

I am going to go neutral for now. This market may keep us guessing for awhile yet.

 

[coolhand]

The market started out with big gains early in the trading, gave it all or most of it back in volatile action (depending on the index).




I note that price was rejected near the previous peak on the DWCPF.

Breadth remains bearish.

So, the sellers are still out there, but it remains to be seen how much the bears can push price lower. I remain neutral.

 

[coolhand]

Today's action boosted the bull's hold on market direction. However, there still remains plenty of upside resistance.




Price is still well away from the 50 and 200 dma's on both charts, but upside momentum continues to rise.



Breadth is now neutral and just a hair from going positive once it closes over the 39 day ema.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. They were bearish last week. I really need to see them cross over to a more bullish stance before I'd be comfortable with a long position in this market. But I have say, the market is acting bullish right now and the charts support that sentiment. The question is, is this short term or something more enduring?

While I am not quite ready to shift bullish, I am certainly not bearish either. Let's see what NAAIM does this week. See you tomorrow.

 

[Beester15]

FOMO is killing me. But I don’t see this being a sustained recovery. Too many people out of work, no income coming in...feels like the fed is propping up this rally.

 

[coolhand]

FOMO is killing me. But I don’t see this being a sustained recovery. Too many people out of work, no income coming in...feels like the fed is propping up this rally.

The market has been propped up by the Fed for many years. Money printed out of thin air. It's all a scam, but things are going to change and those changes are in progress.