coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

I'm not sure if I believe the price on the DWCPF or not. The charts say it was up almost 5.9%, but the S&P was up only marginally. I've never seen that kind of separation before. I'm assuming it's correct.

In any event, the market bounced today. It still doesn't change the trend. Futures are down again this evening.

NAAIM came in even more bearish this week. They can't get much more bearish after this reading. Beware.

Breadth bounced, but remains bearish.

It's still too soon to look for a bottom I think. I remain bearish.

 

[tsptalk]

I'm not sure if I believe the price on the DWCPF or not. The charts say it was up almost 5.9%, but the S&P was up only marginally. I've never seen that kind of separation before. I'm assuming it's correct.

Oil, that is. Black gold. Texas Tea.

The S-fund was down 10% on Wednesday because oil was down over 20%, then oil bounced back 24% today.

 

[Whipsaw]

Small Caps were poised for a strong 2020 according to some analysts... hoping this is still the case when this virus thing blows over.

 

[gegor1957]

Mint says the demand for Silver Eagles is up 300% for March, they are out of them. JM Bullion, Silvertowne and most major dealers are out not only of monster boxes but bars as well. Silvertowne says shipments will take 10-12 weeks, major disconnect to economic supply and demand when looking at spot price

 

[coolhand]

Mint says the demand for Silver Eagles is up 300% for March, they are out of them. JM Bullion, Silvertowne and most major dealers are out not only of monster boxes but bars as well. Silvertowne says shipments will take 10-12 weeks, major disconnect to economic supply and demand when looking at spot price

I've heard, but cannot confirm, that by mid to end of April we will see gold and silver up much higher. We'll see.

 

[coolhand]

It was a brutal week for the bulls. Losses among the major averages were in double digits for the week.




The charts tell the story. The S&P hit a fresh low on Friday. The DWCPF did not, but it may catch up next week.

Breadth remains bearish. NAAIM is bearish.

I continue to believe that the market will continue to lose value for a while longer yet. I think the bottom comes in early to mid April (that's my best guess). Maybe the daily losses get smaller as we near the bottom. We'll have to see.

I remain bearish.

 

[coolhand]

Volatility remains with us and so does the trend, which remains down.




The S&P continued to hit new lows, while the DWPCF is remaining above its last Wednesday low. The 900 level appears to be support, but I don't trust it at all. Not with the S&P continuing to fall.

Breadth remains bearish. Of course, we already know NAAIM is very bearish.

I see nothing in today's action to change my current sentiment, which remains bearish.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls had quite a bounce today. Price soared, erasing much of the past few days of losses.




RSI has turned up. Momentum suggests it may be poised to turn.

Sounds bullish. And maybe it is beyond the next day or so, but as big a bounce as it was, it's still just 1 day. We'll have to see if signals can confirm.

Breadth turned up, but is still bearish.

I am tempted to go neutral from my bearish disposition, but it's too soon for me. If the market rises again tomorrow I may shift to neutral. I am not ready to go bullish.

 

[shitepoke]

Cool- what say NAAIM...also what happened to the days when equities were up when bonds were down and vice versa...back in the days when IT was slayin' 30 plus %...i say here first that with the volatility we currently have IT slays it for 30 percent again...

 

[coolhand]

Cool- what say NAAIM...also what happened to the days when equities were up when bonds were down and vice versa...back in the days when IT was slayin' 30 plus %...i say here first that with the volatility we currently have IT slays it for 30 percent again...

Anything can happen. NAAIM was very bearish last Thursday, but we don't get a fresh read till Thursday again. The market can change between readings and NAAIM won't wait for their survey to make changes to their respective portfolios (should they feel it's necessary). I do think the market soars again, but I am not expecting it until next month (maybe). I have to play this day by day because significant events are occurring daily.

 

[coolhand]

The market made it 2 in a row today, but a late day swoon erased a sizable portion of gains. That swoon was due to yet another hold up of the stimulus package that Congress is "rushing" to get to the people. I won't add any personal observations; you probably have your own.




While the charts improved, that late day sell-off could be a precursor to more selling if that package isn't signed today. Price is still way below the 50 and 200 dma's.



Breadth has also looked good the past 2 days, but it is still not technically bullish.

With volatility as high as it is, it would be a gamble to take either side of the trade here.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bearish, but if the market takes off on good news tomorrow I'll probably flip neutral. We'll see what the smart money thinks soon.

 

[coolhand]

The latest NAAIM sentiment reading remains bearish, but they have reduced their short exposure. This tells me that the market is not out of the woods, but the downside may now be limited.

 

[Mcqlives]

The latest NAAIM sentiment reading remains bearish, but they have reduced their short exposure. This tells me that the market is not out of the woods, but the downside may now be limited.

You are on it! That reading is barely out and you are posting! Thanks!!!

 

[coolhand]

The market was up big again today. It's really starting to look like a low may be in.




A sizable chunk of losses have been retraced. Strength and momentum look good.



Breadth is looking good in the short term too. It's still technically bearish though.

As I posted earlier in the day, NAAIM came in bearish again (not as bearish as last week), but reduced their short exposure. The fact that they are not embracing the rally still gives me pause, but I do think the worst may be over. That's just an educated opinion and I could be wrong. The main take away is that the smart money remains very wary.

I am going neutral from my previous bearish stance. If breadth flips positive, that would be a big plus for the bulls, but the news could still trigger more volatility.

 

[coolhand]

Despite Friday's decline, the bulls had a huge week last week as gains with in the double digits.




We might just have a bull flag forming on the charts, but there is still a long way to go as far as market gains are concerned.



Breadth remains bearish, but it's improving, just like the stock charts.

We saw NAAIM back off their shorts this past Thursday, but remain on the bearish side. I said that this inferred that the downside was likely limited. Since the bulls are not clamoring to get back in (on that survey), I think the upside may be limited too. But that doesn't mean there isn't some upside left in the short term.

The TSP Talk survey showed many have flipped from bearish to bullish, but the survey itself is neutral.

I don't think this is getting a lot of attention (link below), but something massive happened last week. In essence, the Federal Reserve was integrated into the Treasury. I'm not going to get into a debate on this, I only want to point out that it happened. This essentially means that the current administration now has direct control over the monetary system in this country. This is just an early indication of where we are going financially. If you have been listening to the X22 Report (others are also covering this), you will have a better understanding of what is coming. I've mentioned this on rare occasions in the past, but I doubt many believed me.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-cure-risks-being-worse-110052807.html

I remain neutral, but I am beginning to think a bottom may be in. I don't think it's off to the races, however, though a bias higher is not out of the question. But this still remains to be seen. This is a difficult market to gauge with so many levers being pulled.

 

[shitepoke]

Coolhand...what a thorough analysis, and always appreciate the laymen terms. The risk assessment is my favorite as it always stresses that the moves that we do are ours alone...I look forward to the next post always and am sure a lot of folks do. Good luck with the C-Fund move and hope there is a blastoff soon.
EJJ

 

[Bullitt]

Every chart reader says a retest is due. The gap will get filled, but I don't see it happening any time soon.

TSP Talk sentiment survey was on Thursday, the fourth day in a row of a 19% rally. I'm sure that made some feel a bit more bullish than normal. Those that are unsure are waiting for that elusive 'pullback' so they can get on board. If it comes they'll sit on their hands and say it's going lower. If it doesn't come, they'll end up chasing prices higher.

I don't have a dog in metals but I know there are some gold bugs on this site. A major calls order went thru in SLV today: 25000 Jan'2021 @ $25. Somebody with deep pockets is bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Every chart reader says a retest is due. The gap will get filled, but I don't see it happening any time soon.

TSP Talk sentiment survey was on Thursday, the fourth day in a row of a 19% rally. I'm sure that made some feel a bit more bullish than normal. Those that are unsure are waiting for that elusive 'pullback' so they can get on board. If it comes they'll sit on their hands and say it's going lower. If it doesn't come, they'll end up chasing prices higher.

I don't have a dog in metals but I know there are some gold bugs on this site. A major calls order went thru in SLV today: 25000 Jan'2021 @ $25. Somebody with deep pockets is bullish.

I've said before that anything can happen. There are reasons why I think a bottom may be in (a test would not change that), but I won't predict such without solid evidence, which is why I am currently neutral. I am looking for NAAIM to flip bullish. That may not happen quickly.

SLV is the paper market. I am not sure how relevant the paper market is right now, but it may still have some degree of relevance for optics purposes. The monetary foundation across the planet is the process of being changed. We will all benefit from that change in huge ways. Precious metal will be relevant once again!

 

[coolhand]

Monday's action reversed Friday's losses to a large extent.




Momentum is still rising to the upside.



Breadth remains bearish, but it won't take a lot to flip it neutral.

This is the end of the quarter, so we'll have to see if anything changes to a large degree starting in April.

I have nothing to else to add this evening. I remain neutral.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

….I don't think this is getting a lot of attention (link below), but something massive happened last week. In essence, the Federal Reserve was integrated into the Treasury. I'm not going to get into a debate on this, I only want to point out that it happened. This essentially means that the current administration now has direct control over the monetary system in this country. This is just an early indication of where we are going financially. If you have been listening to the X22 Report (others are also covering this), you will have a better understanding of what is coming. I've mentioned this on rare occasions in the past, but I doubt many believed me.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-cure-risks-being-worse-110052807.html

CoolHand, Thank You so very much for keeping this topic in the forefront!!! The article is very informative and is truly scary!

I wonder what the consequence will be???? If those bonds go bad, we as Taxpayers end up holding the liability. Also, if we keep printing money, doesn't that devalue the dollar further?? So wouldn't that cause massive inflation??? What about Treasuries? What would they be worth???? And as we saw even a couple weeks ago, even Gold did not look like much of a safe haven when the market was tanking (I was surprised by that).....gosh, should I invest more in TP?

But seriously, I would love to hear everyone's thoughts on what could happen and what the effect will be on the monies we have in TSP and in other investments. We spend so much time building our nest egg and I just don't know where our money is truly safe. :worried:!!