coolhand's Account Talk

[Tsunami]

That's what we were going to do and literally a day or two ago you could get a 30 year VA loan for 3% and now it is 3.75%. There are reasons I found on Google for it such as lenders being overwhelmed driving the rates significantly higher. https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/mortgage-rates-coronavirus-20200312.html

Wow, I feel even luckier after reading these posts since my wife and I locked in our refi rate with our VA loan at Navy Federal at 2.875% (with zero points) a few days ago.
They're definitely overwhelmed since we haven't heard a peep from them since then, but I've get that locked in rate in writing. :smile:
I think there will be another opportunity in the future though as rates gravitate toward zero, maybe around June this year.

 

[Bullitt]

Why not strive to be debt free instead of playing musical chairs with a mortgage the rest of your life? Reminds me of July 2007 when Chuck Prince, CEO of Citigroup said, "When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.” He was a professional with access to the best information available and we know how that turned out.

I wonder how many people use HELOC's to pay for the lifetime lease on their SUV?

It's an unsustainable system.

 

[Whipsaw]

I'm debt free save for the mortgage, which I'm paying extra on to close it out early.

 

[coolhand]

Today's sell-off feels like a switch may have been pulled. There are certainly reasons for the market to nose dive, but NAAIM did not forecast that last week. Not only were they pretty bulled up, but there wasn't any real shorting among them (of significance). It is too soon to say how this plays out, but I would not get too comfortable with the bullish case. I think we should always be ready in case "it's different this time". The Virus is wreaking havoc in many ways. It may be the catalyst that drives the market lower (when they are ready). And it's possible they are ready. I'm not bearish yet, but I'm not complacent either.

In my post dated 2/24, I said that "Today's sell-off fees like a switch may have been pulled".

It was. It was the beginning of serious downside pressure culminating into a bear market.

Friday's rally was pretty impressive. It also feels like a switch may have been pulled, but I am not as comfortable with that feeling as I was the first time.




The rally, impressive as it was, did not completely erase the previous day's losses. With volatility at a high level, the market could just as easily reverse once more. It's just too early to embrace the long side in my opinion, and I know how it feels to be wrong and watch price continue to rise while remaining on the sidelines.

The latest reading from NAAIM is heavily beared up. The CBOE is also beared up. I don't like betting against smart money (NAAIM), but it's only a weekly sentiment reading and things could change between readings.



Breadth bounced again, but the trend is still down according to the chart.

This is a tough market right now. It's a guessing game what happens day to day with everything that is going on. The indicators are still bearish and that is what my personal sentiment is tied to. Let's see how Monday goes after Friday's moon shot.

 

[nnuut]

With the FED lowering the the interest rate to 0.25% I think we may have another UP day TOMORROW. So far the futures are down.

Fed slashes main interest rate to near zero in historic move designed to cushion economic blow of coronavirus pandemic

https://www.businessinsider.com/fed...-holdings-coronavirus-pandemic-economy-2020-3

 

[coolhand]

With the FED lowering the the interest rate to 0.25% I think we may have another UP day TOMORROW. So far the futures are down.

Fed slashes main interest rate to near zero in historic move designed to cushion economic blow of coronavirus pandemic

https://www.businessinsider.com/fed...-holdings-coronavirus-pandemic-economy-2020-3

We'll see, but there is a lot more churn coming. Things are only going to get more interesting as we move forward.

 

[Rod]

Every day lately has been a crap shoot. But ya never know. I've learned not to get excited until the last 1/2 hour of trading, especially the last 5 minutes.

With the FED lowering the the interest rate to 0.25% I think we may have another UP day TOMORROW. So far the futures are down.

Fed slashes main interest rate to near zero in historic move designed to cushion economic blow of coronavirus pandemic

https://www.businessinsider.com/fed...-holdings-coronavirus-pandemic-economy-2020-3

 

[Bravo Sierra]

FED: "I know what you're thinking: 'Did he fire six shots or only five?'"

Market: "That was six, that was definitely your last bullet."

FED: "Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement, I've kinda lost track myself. But being this is a FED rate cut, the most powerful weapon in the world, and would blow your chart clean up..."

Market: "Well, it might, you know, under normal circumstances and all- but what good is free fiat currency when everyone's hunkered down streaming Netflix with a surplus of toilet paper and bottled water? And that was your last bullet, dude."

FED: "...you've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do you, punk?"

Market: "Yeah, not so much. Would you please back off, you know, social distance and all...but that was your last bullet, definitely your last bullet, so I think we're both screwed for awhile."

 

[coolhand]

It appears that the physical precious metals market is decoupling from the paper market. Prices of physical are commanding a higher premium as a result.

Things are changing quickly in many ways. We are not in Kansas anymore. (That's a good thing)

 

[coolhand]

The bulls got trampled again today. Not only did the market give back Friday's gains, but plumbed new lows.




Both charts show some serious damage to price with no indication that a bottom might be in. Price closed at the lows of the day.



No surprise that breadth is also bearish.

Precious metals have been falling along with the stock market, which isn't really a surprise, but I do find it interesting that real estate seems to be weathering this turbulence fairly well (where I live anyway). At least for the moment. I am seeing a lot of new construction around my neighborhood over the past few months.

But the stock market remains is dire straits and I have a hard time seeing this turn around quickly. I still think it may be April sometime before we see stability, but that's just a hunch on my part. In any event, I remain bearish.

 

[FAAM]

Thx again for your postings/thoughts and comments! Can you confirm/elaborate on your meaning earlier "... precious metals decoupling from paper... physicals.."?
BTW - today in my relatively small Robinhood account, after going to nearly zero-invested over over the prior couple days of "stop-loss sells", I went in early for PMs and bond funds, and a handful off equity stocks that seemed to be holding up... generally that portfolio was up for the day & I gained a few bucks back.
THX again!

 

[coolhand]

Thx again for your postings/thoughts and comments! Can you confirm/elaborate on your meaning earlier "... precious metals decoupling from paper... physicals.."?
BTW - today in my relatively small Robinhood account, after going to nearly zero-invested over over the prior couple days of "stop-loss sells", I went in early for PMs and bond funds, and a handful off equity stocks that seemed to be holding up... generally that portfolio was up for the day & I gained a few bucks back.
THX again!

Everyday I watch what PM is fetching in the open market (EBAY, PM Distributors, etc.) and I've noticed that many of the large distributors (APMEX, Bullion Exchange, etc.) are or have run out of certain types of PM (especially silver). They are also cautioning buyers that there is limits on how much they can buy as well as distribution and delivery delays. I also noted today that pricing did not change nearly as much for the physical metal even though paper (SLV, GLD) was falling hard. This was especially true of silver, which has been falling off a cliff like the market. This is the decoupling I am seeing.

For many years, PM dealers and experts have lamented that paper was preventing physical from finding its true price point. That's because the big banks (some of them anyway) have been rigging the pricing using paper (SLV, GLD). This will stop before much longer I am sure.

 

[coolhand]

Here is a link to one of the PM dealers I watch. Check out their alert at the top of the page.

https://www.moneymetals.com/precious-metals-charts

 

[coolhand]

The market gave us another relief bounce, but they are not doing much to counter the overall damage to price. At least to this point.




The way it's been going, I would expect another down day tomorrow. It is possible the size of the moves may start diminishing at some point as the market eventually finds some measure of stability.



Breadth also bounced, but obviously remains bearish.

Precious metal is selling out across many bullion dealers and coin markets. What is available is priced at higher premiums above spot (primarily silver) than was the case just last week or even this past Monday. I do not expect "spot" to be relevant much longer. I'm thinking it becomes a relic of the past within weeks. At least in the current paper market. They may find an alternative to find more realistic price points as the paper market implodes.

But as for the stock market, there is still no solid evidence that a bottom is in. I remain bearish.

 

[coolhand]

True to form (of late), the market reversed Tuesday's gains and plumbed new lows.




Price on the S&P actually closed above Monday's low, but the DWCPF continues to fall off a cliff, so there isn't anything bullish to read into these charts yet.



Breadth is tracking lower with the stock charts.

I remain bearish. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

 

[Bravo Sierra]

Question: Any thoughts on the late day rallies today (3/18) and last Friday? I understand short covering, low volume and the hyper-reactivity currently in play (I think), but the size of late day moves in an environment in which there are lower highs and lower lows is puzzling to me.

It's somewhat more understandable on a Friday, I suppose (if market psychology doesn't understand the exponential mathematics of pandemics). And perhaps today's late action is just a technical reaction revolving around S&P's 2350 level. Anyway, enough of my thoughts- yours?

 

[coolhand]

Question: Any thoughts on the late day rallies today (3/18) and last Friday? I understand short covering, low volume and the hyper-reactivity currently in play (I think), but the size of late day moves in an environment in which there are lower highs and lower lows is puzzling to me.

It's somewhat more understandable on a Friday, I suppose (if market psychology doesn't understand the exponential mathematics of pandemics). And perhaps today's late action is just a technical reaction revolving around S&P's 2350 level. Anyway, enough of my thoughts- yours?

It's anyone's guess. The market is largely driven by algos. And there is a battle (political) over control of the global financial system. It stands to reason there will be a lot that doesn't make sense as it plays out. Silver's significant nose dive is another thing that doesn't really make sense. I wish I could tell you with certainty, but I doubt even a lot of insiders really know, though they'll posit speculation. How's Frenchee doing? You still hang out at IHub?

 

[Bravo Sierra]

Lost touch with Frenchee, unfortunately.
I check IHub from time to time b/c in spite of the fact I don't own any IDCC at the moment (sold at over 80 to pay for some of a daughter's grad school, yay) I still love that stupid company. They just got beat to hell, BTW, and have about $15 per share cash after debt and a real P/E (backward, of course, who's isn't) of about 26 if my math is right. Their price has gone stupid low (and high) in the past, but I'm hoping for stupid low again before too long. Regards

 

[Valkyrie]

It's anyone's guess. The market is largely driven by algos. And there is a battle (political) over control of the global financial system. It stands to reason there will be a lot that doesn't make sense as it plays out. Silver's significant nose dive is another thing that doesn't really make sense. I wish I could tell you with certainty, but I doubt even a lot of insiders really know, though they'll posit speculation. How's Frenchee doing? You still hang out at IHub?

silver is down because it is mainly an industrial metal now. it reacts to manufacturing slowdowns like copper does.

 

[coolhand]

silver is down because it is mainly an industrial metal now. it reacts to manufacturing slowdowns like copper does.

That does not explain why physical silver is being snapped up at a very fast pace (I mean it's disappearing from inventories). It also does not explain why all metals are dropping, not just silver. And then there is the very real disconnect now between price in the paper market (spot) and what sellers are selling it for and what buyers are willing to pay. In other words, not many care about the spot price right now.

The game is changing.