coolhand's Account Talk

[pmaloney]

Maybe arrogant, maybe ignorant but the bottome line is that whatever or however the tests were conducted, right now they are only reporting around 600 known infections and about 22 deaths in the US but these are obviously the first reliable test results of those that were obviously showing severe symptoms. The original social media of a communistic quarantine solution were disturbing but further testing will probably normalize the death ratio further down.

I'm far more worried about the repeat of the Saudi cheap oil glut of 2015 to 2016. :smile:

 

[coolhand]

The market give the bulls a relief today. It felt good, I'm sure, but it may be a dead cat bounce.




There is no indication that a bottom may be in, unless it's a "V" bottom. I suspect it isn't.



Breadth bounced, but remains bearish.

The CBOE is very bearish heading into Wednesday.

Futures are already pointing lower. Volatility will very likely make it challenging to pick buy and sell points. I remain bearish.

 

[1965Vintage]

It's a dead cat bounce for sure. Anyone who knows anything about charts knows it.
The problem is....in the TSP you are limited to what you can do.
The TSP is a joke!
I may take everything out, pay the taxes and penalties.
To hell with the government and their limits.
I can't wait to leave this outfit.
I'm so tired of watching money wasted at my facility. $150k for a heat and air unit?
(2000 sq. ft building!)
$600 for simple shelves from GSA?
GSA is worse than the Mafia!

Criminal!

It's sickening! The waste!

The government is broken. I feel dirty working for them. Can't wait to retire and get this filth off my hands.
And I'm a Republican!!!

Trump was supposed to drain the swamp......
But I still have to work in hip waders to keep the muck out!

I'm "fed" up!

Sorry for the rant, but I'm upset tonight.

Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

 

[coolhand]

It's a dead cat bounce for sure. Anyone who knows anything about charts knows it.
The problem is....in the TSP you are limited to what you can do.
The TSP is a joke!
I may take everything out, pay the taxes and penalties.
To hell with the government and their limits.
I can't wait to leave this outfit.
I'm so tired of watching money wasted at my facility. $150k for a heat and air unit?
(2000 sq. ft building!)
$600 for simple shelves from GSA?
GSA is worse than the Mafia!

Criminal!

It's sickening! The waste!

The government is broken. I feel dirty working for them. Can't wait to retire and get this filth off my hands.
And I'm a Republican!!!

Trump was supposed to drain the swamp......
But I still have to work in hip waders to keep the muck out!

I'm "fed" up!

Sorry for the rant, but I'm upset tonight.

Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

You sound like me when I was still active in Civil Service.

 

[coolhand]

It didn't take long for the bottom to fall out again. The volatility is something else.




We are officially in bear market territory. We can see that both charts show price closing at fresh lows. The DWCPF is faring worse than the S&P to this point. That is not a surprise. Momentum is still falling. The charts are oversold, but that doesn't mean much in the context of the scale of selling taking place.



Breadth remains on a downward trajectory.

There is still no indication that a bottom is in, but bounces are always possible in the interim. NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bearish, but Thursday may see another relief rally.

 

[ravensfan]

Eventually we will run out of sellers and the bottom will be in.

 

[coolhand]

I thought the market might bounce again after Wednesday's power move lower, but that is not likely given that futures trading has been halted for a 2nd day this week as they point to yet another multi-percent drop.

My guess is that stability may not occur until at least sometime in April. That's when the worst of the viral epidemic should be over. But that says nothing of the carnage in oil and bonds. While precious metals are not in rally mode, they aren't losing nearly the value of stocks. I suspect they will recover much faster too (to new highs).

 

[coolhand]

As bearish as NAAIM was last week, they are more bearish this week. Heavily beared up. Smart money is shorting this market. This could get much worse before it gets better.

 

[amoeba]

Eventually we will run out of sellers and the bottom will be in.

The volumes in key ETFs like SPY, while elevated for some weeks, suggest this is not the case. Yet. But close. Double that volume and I'd say its soup (screaming buy).

Sent from my SM-J320P using Tapatalk

 

[Boghie]

Coolhand, do you have anything that informs you of who/what or what type of entity made that huge buy in today. The proxies for F/C/S all had a huge mid-day spike.

I'm thinking programmed trading off a -25% marker from the highs, but it could be big managed money. Any proxy for that...

 

[coolhand]

Coolhand, do you have anything that informs you of who/what or what type of entity made that huge buy in today. The proxies for F/C/S all had a huge mid-day spike.

I'm thinking programmed trading off a -25% marker from the highs, but it could be big managed money. Any proxy for that...

It is probably programmed trading as a lot of stuff is unwinding. The banks are doing most of the selling. They own the market, not us. They just let us play in their sandbox (casino).

 

[Tsunami]

They're still talking about the details on CNBC, but the Feds announcement included $500B of 3-month treasury purchases today at 1:30 pm eastern, $500B more tomorrow, $500B earlier today I think...$1.5 Trillion total for this week...this is not to fix the stock market, it's a desperate attempt to keep the repo market afloat and keep rates down. If they don't succeed it sounds like game over, that was their best shot...rates will rise out of control, the government will no longer be able to service the debt.

The plan is to do $1 Trillion every week for as long as necessary. This is NOT a good thing!, thus the market was not impressed for very long. This is getting really serious, like October 2008. I'm wondering if I need to get some cash at the ATM before there's talk of the system seizing up.

This is exactly what Martin Armstrong has been warning was coming for months now, the "mother of all crisis", and now it's happening.

 

[coolhand]

They're still talking about the details on CNBC, but the Feds announcement included $500B of 3-month treasury purchases today at 1:30 pm eastern, $500B more tomorrow, $500B earlier today I think...$1.5 Trillion total for this week...this is not to fix the stock market, it's a desperate attempt to keep the repo market afloat and keep rates down. If they don't succeed it sounds like game over, that was their best shot...rates will rise out of control, the government will no longer be able to service the debt.

The plan is to do $1 Trillion every week for as long as necessary. This is NOT a good thing!, thus the market was not impressed for very long. This is getting really serious, like October 2008. I'm wondering if I need to get some cash at the ATM before there's talk of the system seizing up.

This is exactly what Martin Armstrong has been warning was coming for months now, the "mother of all crisis", and now it's happening.

I expect this action to be an extinction level event for the CB, though it will still take time to play out.

 

[shitepoke]

Cool- is that a mirage I'm seeing or are bonds really at -3.3% at the moment??
EJJ

 

[albacore5]

I have never seen the F fund down 4.2%! I guess people are abandoning treasuries as well as minerals as well as equities. Mad dash to go to cash I guess

 

[MaStA]

Heck my wife and I were looking at houses since we are about to PCS and mortgage rates just went up almost 1% it seems overnight or over the last couple of days. We have never purchased a house, but I think that may have been enough to scare me off considering the mortgage was already going to be more than my BAH in the area.

 

[Boghie]

With bonds, gold, and silver all dumping at the same time as equities I think this means a cash run.

Thus, deflation as the dollar gets stronger. That is probably why the Fed is throwing money into the system. They don't want a strong dollar. They want their dollar - whatever that is.

And, don't forget - the price of oil just dumped as Saudi Arabia and Russia started playing games to regain market share. That also makes the dollar stronger.

The Fed is always worried about inflation, but we have been on the edge of deflation since 2007. Deflation is a very bad thing.

Don't do debt, get out of debt. Go Full Dave Ramsey!!!

 

[nnuut]

Heck my wife and I were looking at houses since we are about to PCS and mortgage rates just went up almost 1% it seems overnight or over the last couple of days. We have never purchased a house, but I think that may have been enough to scare me off considering the mortgage was already going to be more than my BAH in the area.

VA Loan, I used mine 3 times and if needed 1 more is available.

 

[MaStA]

VA Loan, I used mine 3 times and if needed 1 more is available.

That's what we were going to do and literally a day or two ago you could get a 30 year VA loan for 3% and now it is 3.75%. There are reasons I found on Google for it such as lenders being overwhelmed driving the rates significantly higher. https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/mortgage-rates-coronavirus-20200312.html

 

[coolhand]

The bears had their way with the market again today. A massive liquidity injection delivered a brief respite, but then the selling kicked in again.




Ugly just got uglier. Momentum is almost vertical to the downside.



Breadth remains quite ugly too (of course).

NAAIM got more bearish. They were pretty predictive of the upside for a long time. The reading this week suggests more selling for the next week (not necessarily each day).

I remain bearish.