coolhand's Account Talk

[wahinepio]

It’s worth a lot Cool. Thanks.

 

[ToddB]

Thanks Cool for your insight we really appreciate all you do here!


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[coolhand]

The market closed mixed today, with the S&P shedding a modest amount and the DWCPF rising modestly. This action continues to have a toppy feel to it.

Breadth, while still bullish, was flat. This evening, the OEX is bearish, while the CBOE is neutral.

We already know that NAAIM is at least modestly bullish, so any downside would seem limited. The OEX suggests it may be time for another dip. I would caution that there seems to be a lot for bad news out there right now (okay, more than usual), so we could melt up anyway. Futures are modestly positive as I write this.

 

[coolhand]

The bears tried to get something going today, but it was not to be as the bulls held their ground. Feels like a "melt up" doesn't it?

Breadth remains bullish. The options are neutral. I have nothing compelling indicating the action for Wednesday, so I'm neutral to modestly bullish.

 

[coolhand]

We got more selling early today, but once more the bulls mounted some measure of a counter for a mixed close overall. There is no really technical damage to the charts to this point.

Both the OEX and CBOE are bullish this evening. Breadth remains bullish, but is now under pressure. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

The overall picture has not changed. The melt up is likely to continue.

 

[wahinepio]

thank you and enjoy your new turn in life

 

[coolhand]

It was another up/down day; this time starting out bullish and then sliding lower as the trading day wore on. Not much movement in price overall.

Breadth remains bullish, but is tracking sideways (like price). The OEX and CBOE remain bullish. NAAIM came in relatively unchanged, which keeps them in the bullish camp.

The bulls remain in control and sentiment certainly supports that. I think the price action is bullish as well as I suspect it may be slowly coiling for another push to the upside. Let's hope that is the case.

 

[coolhand]

The stock market ended the week with moderate losses, but maintained an overall bullish disposition in the intermediate term (no serious technical damage).

Breadth continues to track sideways. I see it as neutral to modesty bullish as a result. I note that TRINQ is bullish for Monday.

Sentiment shows that the OEX is bullish for Monday, while the CBOE is neutral. TSP Talk saw a marked decrease in bulls and is now neutral. NAAIM is moderately bullish.

The indicators appear to point to a bounce on Monday. The way the market is hanging in there leads me to anticipate an eventual upside breakout. That could be weeks away, but it may be sooner.

 

[coolhand]

The market sure seems to be finding a way to end relatively flat of late. Sure, the short term has been down, but there is still no serious technical damage.

Breadth was neutral and actually ticked up a bit today. It might be modestly bullish. It sure isn't bearish.

The options are showing the OEX modestly bearish, while the CBOE is neutral.

There isn't much to go on in the very short term. The battle continues. The bulls are still in control even as the market has dipped.

 

[coolhand]

Well, things are getting interesting (disturbing?) in the political sphere and that was one of the reasons (money pumping is another) for today's shot lower. I suspect we might want to buckle up as there isn't a day that goes by anymore where signs of battle are not seen. I won't elaborate on that point; most of you have heard me mention my longer term concerns before (check out X22 Report).

Setting that aside, both the S&P 500 and the DWCPF fell, with the S&P 500 remaining above its key 50 dma, while the DWCPF closed under it.

Breadth fell too, but it still remains in a bullish stance.

I also note that crypto got slammed today, while precious metal rose.

Let's see what happens on Wednesday. The indicators are mostly neutral right now, though the short term is bearish.

The options look largely neutral.

 

[coolhand]

After spiking lower on Tuesday, stocks rebounded smartly, though did not retrace all losses. The rebound did push price on the DWCPF back over its 50 dma, which is at least somewhat encouraging for the bulls; especially given that the S&P 500 has remained above above it. In other words, the S&P could be viewed as a kind of anchor for stocks overall given small caps tend to be more volatile.

So while some damage was done on Tuesday, the market did recover to some extent. Also, breadth has remained bullish throughout. That's a big plus for the bulls.

This evening, the options are looking neutral once more. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

I still see no clear path for direction in the short term. Headlines are a contributing factor right now, but I remain bullish beyond the shorter term.

 

[coolhand]

The slug fest continued today between the bulls and bears as price reversed once more. Price on the DWCPF closed just under its 50 dma, while the S&P remains above it.

Overall, there wasn't much change from a technical perspective. Breadth remains bullish, but is back to moving sideways again.

The options look a bit bullish this evening. NAAIM got less bullish and is now back to a neutral stance. They are wary. That tells me that the action we've been getting of late is likely to continue. I'm modestly bullish for Friday.

 

[wahinepio]

They are wary and I am weary… Heading over to X22. Thanks again.

 

[coolhand]

Weakness continued on Friday, which helped the S&P 500 and DWCPF finish with losses on the week. Price on the S&P is still above its 50 dma, but it's getting closer to that support level. Price on the DWCPF fell well under its 50 dma and is now not far from testing its 200 dma.

The market has fallen enough now to at least look for some degree of a rebound.

Breadth remains bullish, believe it or not. I note that TRINQ closed high on Friday, which suggests the NAZ may see a bounce. If so, it may drag the rest of the market with it.

The options are neutral. TSP is more bullish, but neutral still. NAAIM is neutral.

So, I'm looking for some measure of a bounce on the Monday. Maybe the S&P tests its 50 dma and reverses. The DWCPF may test its 200 dma at the same time. That's not a prediction; just a possibility. Overall, I am neutral for the week.

 

[coolhand]

This indicators are not telling me a whole lot this evening. We got the bounce I expected for Monday, but it was not enough to pull the DWCPF back over the 50 dma. That's not a major problem as long as price on the S&P can remain above its 50 dma.

Breadth remains bullish. The options remain neutral. All other surveys I follow are also neutral.

I have no hints what may happen on Tuesday, though futures are up. We may get some upside follow through. I remain neutral.

 

[coolhand]

Yesterday, I said I didn't have a lot to go on as to what to expect on Tuesday, but I thought we might get some upside follow through. We did get it, but it lasted less than an hour. And the bottom fell out as price on the S&P closed under its 50 dma and the DWCPF below its 200 dma. The lows have not been tested, but they might. The market has been trending lower and now technical damage is more in evidence. It may be test that will be short lived, but I am not comfortable with that possibility given NAAIM's neutral stance. I think the bears may continue to press their advantage; especially since breadth flipped negative.

Now, as the indicators get more negative a reversal does become more likely, but it's hardly something we can use with precision.

The options are leaning a bit bearish this evening. I am changing my stance from neutral to modestly bearish. I have a feeling the bulls may get punished a bit more before at least a short term bottom gets put in.

 

[coolhand]

My recently minted bearish disposition was on target. Wednesday's action was ugly. Price on the S&P plunged and closed well under its 50 dma. Price on the DWCPF is currently testing its previous lows.

Breadth plunged deeper as well. In the past, it would bounce soon after plunging to the extent that is has right now. Is a bottom near? Hold that thought.

The OEX and CBOE are neutral. We already know that NAAIM was neutral as of last week.

I watch no shortage of videos regarding market action. I don't normally comment on it, but the past few days I am hearing several market managers who are quite concerned with the Repo's the CB is currently deploying. This is being interpreted as something to be concerned about. It seems to be indicating that the banks are in trouble. Many charts look similar to those of past market crashes. The current political climate certainly supports this possibility as well. I am not predicting such, but I need to point it out. It is almost impossible to predict exactly when a market may crash given that smoke and mirrors are tools of their trade. I recommend considering how much risk you really want to take in such a market.

If this market is going to bottom, it needs to bottom soon. There is another support area at the June lows, but we could blow through that quickly if panic set in.

Consider how you would react should price begin to fall in earnest. Again, I am not saying that this is imminent because I cannot predict an event like this, but you may not have a lot of time to react should things really start to fall apart.

I am looking for a bounce. I am guessing that the powers that be may not be interested in a deep plunge at this time, but I could be wrong.

Let's see where NAAIM stands tomorrow. That may help.

 

[coolhand]

The selling continued early on today, but the bulls managed to turn it around to post moderate gains by the close. But it didn't change the trend. It's only a bounce to this point.
The technical indicators did not change that much. Breadth remains negative, though it did turn up. TRINQ is bullish this evening.

The CBOE looks bullish, while the OEX is neutral. NAAIM got more bearish, but remains neutral. It appears the bears among them got more short, while the bulls are holding tight to long positions. This tells me volatility will continue.

I don't think the market falls apart at this time, but that doesn't mean we can't probe lower. I also don't think an extended rally is in the cards either.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls put together a second day of gains on Friday, which significantly made up losses earlier in the week, but did not entirely erase them. Still, it's a victory when considering where the indicators that I follow are currently sitting.

Price on the S&P closed back over its 50 dma, while the price on the DWCPF closed back over its 200 dma. Certainly, that's at least somewhat encouraging.

More importantly in my opinion, breadth flipped back to a positive condition.

The options are leaning bullish for Monday. NAAIM is neutral. TSP Talk came in decidedly bullish. We don't get too beared up anymore, but we are bearish now (that's bullish).

I like what I am seeing from a bullish perspective. I am cautiously optimistic that a bottom may be in. But until NAAIM takes a more bullish stance, we have to temper upside expectations. I am anticipating a positive week.

 

[wahinepio]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NwP3wes4M8

I’m with you CH. This newbie sure is feeling it. Thanks again every day for your expertise and insight.