coolhand's Account Talk

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The bulls gave back some gains today, but losses were contained. The S&P 500 is still testing its 50 dma and the DWCPF is testing its 200 dma. That's the current battleground.

The options have not posted. Breadth dipped and is now neutral. Most other indicators are looking neutral as well.

I am still leaning bullish for the week, but I am not overly bullish. As I've said recently, until NAAIM gets more bullish, we have to temper bullish expectations. I think the back and forth battle will continue for the time being.
 
The bulls took yet another pounding on Tuesday. Price on the S&P has closed back below its 50 dma, while the DWCPF closed at a lower low, but only by hair. The DWCPF has tested this area several times over the past 2 months. Is this support or is price determined to break it? That is the big question.

Along with the technical damage that remains in evidence on the charts, breadth has flipped bearish once more. But, it's fallen enough to look for another reversal.

TRINQ (Nasdaq) is bullish this evening. TRIN (NYSE) is neutral.

I don't know why, but the options data is not updating on stockcharts. The OEX has not updated since last Friday and the CBOE has not updated since yesterday. I don't know why I did not notice the OEX sooner, but it could be that there is a technical glitch on the website. In other words, it may have been updated and then for some reason reverted to a previous date. I am not sure.

So the market remains vulnerable to selling pressure. So far, it hasn't gotten super ugly and that might be telling us something. The fact that NAAIM still has plenty of bulls despite being neutral overall does suggest there may some measure of floor under the market. I don't know if we've found it yet or not. I will be interested in where NAAIM stands this week, but we won't know for another 2 days.

There is no shortage of drama in the political sphere and that is not helping. But markets are often perverse. They can defy expectations. We're all familiar with that reality.

We'll just have to see if support holds at this point.
 
In my opinion, dumb money is buying now
Look at the max chart for the SPY. I see 211 in the next 3 to 6 months. I wouldn't touch this market with a 60' pole. All signs point to huge sell off.

Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
 
1965Vintage said:
In my opinion, dumb money is buying now
Look at the max chart for the SPY. I see 211 in the next 3 to 6 months. I wouldn't touch this market with a 60' pole. All signs point to huge sell off.

Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
Click to expand...

I agree. I've been G fund for over a year. Many want to try to continue making gains as long as this bull is alive, but risk is off the charts.
 
1965Vintage said:
In my opinion, dumb money is buying now
Look at the max chart for the SPY. I see 211 in the next 3 to 6 months. I wouldn't touch this market with a 60' pole. All signs point to huge sell off.

Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
Click to expand...

My dumb money went in on the 1st. Still have 60% in G standing by. Thought about pulling all out to G but then I miss out on the bottom IF it gets confirmed sometime soon.
 
BooDog said:
My dumb money went in on the 1st. Still have 60% in G standing by. Thought about pulling all out to G but then I miss out on the bottom IF it gets confirmed sometime soon.
Click to expand...

The reason so many continue to invest or time the market is that there is few other places to make money. TSP does not allow shorting and we only have 2 IFTs (generally) per month, so we're handcuffed there. There is no real money in the G fund either, but it does serve as a safe haven in times of uncertainty. Money rates have been in the dirt for well over a decade. That isn't helping retirees who want to play it safe since they generally don't want to work if they can avoid it. They don't want the risks of stocks either. But "they" want us in their manipulated market and not in cash or the sidelines. Or gold or silver. Or Crypto. Blah, blah, blah. X22 Report is one the best sites for explaining the financial risks we are all facing.

While it may seem we have control over our financial future, the reality is that most cannot navigate the Central Bank system of manipulation. It is a global multi-headed cabal (monster) that is not interested in our financial well-being.
 
We got the bounce, but it was underwhelming. For the most part, the charts did not change.

Breadth did move higher and is back to a neutral stance. TRINQ, which was bullish yesterday, is now somewhat bearish for Thursday. TRIN remains neutral.

The options are still not posting correctly. The OEX is still showing last Friday's chart. The CBOE posted for yesterday (finally), but not for today (yet). They normally get posted around 6 pm and shortly thereafter. I am not sure what to think. I say that because J.P. Morgan is under criminal investigation (RICO) for fraud (among other things). There is a lot going on that we do not have visibility of, so I get suspicious easy these days.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. That should be interesting.

I note that futures have fallen hard after hours on sour China trade talks. We may be headed to the June lows. A lot can happen before the open, so I won't speculate too much.
 
CH- why so interested or place so much weight on X22 report...I am sure you have explained before so pardon my ignorance...
EJJ
 
shitepoke said:
CH- why so interested or place so much weight on X22 report...I am sure you have explained before so pardon my ignorance...
EJJ
Click to expand...

Our world is changing quickly. If anyone out there is unaware (there are many), I suggest you think about finding out what is really going on because we will all be impacted in some way as we move forward. I don't want this to sound ominous (in the end things will be great), but there may very well be a period of time where there is uncertainty. If you are informed, you can at least be prepared. This subject is too deep for me to get into particulars, that's why I push the X22 Report. It's about getting informed to what is for many, a hidden reality.

WWG1WGA
 
coolhand said:
We got the bounce, but it was underwhelming. For the most part, the charts did not change.

Breadth did move higher and is back to a neutral stance. TRINQ, which was bullish yesterday, is now somewhat bearish for Thursday. TRIN remains neutral.

The options are still not posting correctly. The OEX is still showing last Friday's chart. The CBOE posted for yesterday (finally), but not for today (yet). They normally get posted around 6 pm and shortly thereafter. I am not sure what to think. I say that because J.P. Morgan is under criminal investigation (RICO) for fraud (among other things). There is a lot going on that we do not have visibility of, so I get suspicious easy these days.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. That should be interesting.

I note that futures have fallen hard after hours on sour China trade talks. We may be headed to the June lows. A lot can happen before the open, so I won't speculate too much.
Click to expand...

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/oex.asp
 
So, the DWCPF has successfully tested support multiple times. The chart still looks dicey as there is no real evidence of solid buying activity. At least in terms of a sustained rally. The S&P 500 closed back above its 50 dma, but not with any real authority. It's as if the market is simply being kept from falling apart rather than trying to resume its bullish longer term bias. Now, that doesn't mean things can't change and the market at some point soars to the upside. That could still happen.

I saw that the traders on Trader's Talk also noted that the OEX data is no longer being supported on stockcharts. This was a smart money indicator for me, but was largely only useful in the very short term (daily). In fact, stockcharts no longer recognizes the symbol to pull up the data, so it's gone. Wonder why?

The CBOE is still available and is showing the dumb money as being bullish. As I have noted in previous posts, I can no longer use it as a contrarian indicator as it often is in line with the following day's market action.

NAAIM was largely unchanged today and remains neutral. No real help there other than to suggest a floor under the market and ceiling over it.

Breadth flipped positive again, but the problem is that it's tracking sideways and is no longer in an uptrend.

I have nothing to indicate that market character is going to change. I think we continue to see up/down action, but it may have a bias to the downside.
 
Last edited:
Here is what I said prior to the start of last Monday's trading,

"I like what I am seeing from a bullish perspective. I am cautiously optimistic that a bottom may be in. But until NAAIM takes a more bullish stance, we have to temper upside expectations. I am anticipating a positive week."

As the week played, price was kept under pressure and went neutral and then modestly bearish by mid-week. To be honest, and I indicated this in my posts, the indicators were not helping us all that much as price kept following the news.

Then, the bulls got some upward traction on Thursday. And then on Friday word of progress in the China trade arena sent stocks soaring even more. And guess what...we closed with gains for the week.

It was a tough week to trade for sure.

Price on the S&P is now firmly above its 50 dma. Price on the DWPCF is back above its 200 dma and is currently testing its 50 dma. Breadth has improved dramatically is bullish. The CBOE is bullish. NAAIM is still neutral, however. But that reading came before the China trade news. They likely made adjustments since, but I can't guess where they might stand now.

Friday's action was bullish. There was conviction in the move. Breadth is looking very good, very quickly. I am going out on a limb and say that there is likely more upside to be had.
 
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