coolhand's Account Talk

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The bulls managed to hold on to weekly gains last week as Friday's action closed near the flat line.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

No breakouts yet, but we can see that price is very close to testing the 50 dma on the S&P. We do need to see more bullish interest in the Completion Index if a breakout is going to occur. The flip side, is that we may head back down again as resistance rejects price.

Interestingly, my intermediate term system flipped positive on Friday. Breadth is positive and has been moving higher of late. Volume has favored the bulls.

The options closed neutral for Tuesday (Monday being a Holiday). Our TSP Talk sentiment survey is also neutral. NAAIM is neutral.

Overall, the market seems to be waiting for something to latch onto as there are plenty of fence sitters. While my IT system, breadth, and volume are bullish, the charts have yet to give us evidence of a breakout. Perhaps that's why sentiment is neutral. Let's see how the post Holiday action unfolds; especially as Dorian slowly reveals its true path.
 
The post holiday action was negative. Silver was up significantly. Gold was up too. Bitcoin appears to be have bottomed and is moving back up again.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Price on the S&P 500 was rejected at the 50 dma, but remains well above the 200 dma. The DWCPF is not doing as well and is currently testing its 200 dma once again.

Not all of my charts have updated this evening, but I've got enough current data anyway. Breadth remains positive, but is tracking sideways. My intermediate term system remains positive, but is already under attack (it just flipped positive late last week).

The options are modestly bullish this evening, which doesn't mean much given the overall neutral reading of several surveys we got to end last week.

It appears the battle will continue over control of price. I'm neutral for tomorrow, but we may bounce after Tuesday's selling.
 
Price on the S&P 500 rallied back near resistance at the 50 dma today.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

The DWCPF rallied as well, but remains closer to support rather than resistance.

My intermediate term system remains positive. Breadth actually broke out higher today, but until price is back at its highs I can't get too excited about that. But we do want to see breadth doing what it's doing.

This evening, the options are neutral. NAAIM reports in the morning.

I continue to remain neutral as the up/down action continues. Sentiment is on the neural side as well (the surveys I follow).

Aside from my daily technical narrative, I continue to be concerned about the market in general. Precious metal, and especially silver right now, is signaling problems under the hood. The character of the market can change quickly and it is not easy to predict with any kind of surgical precision.

This may be the last week I have charts to post. My subscription runs out this month and I think it's sooner rather than later.
 
now may be a good time to run out of charts...news threw everything out the window...China announced trade talks are on for october and futures are launching.

Regardless, PLEASE keep posting comments! Always get some onsite.
 
Definitely agree with [FONT=Verdana,Arial,Tahoma,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]mcqlives. Occasionally I look at your charts but I read your posts because I appreciate your opinion, knowledge and shared values. Stay in touch. Keep the Big Berkey clean and ready. Glad you missed the worst of Dorian. :smile:[/FONT]
 
Breakout?

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Maybe. But not all of my indicators agree with that. We can clearly see that price on the S&P 500 decisively broke through resistance at the 50 dma. But it still has more resistance overhead until it can clear its previous highs (for more than 3 days or so). Price on the DWCPF broke to the upside, but did not quite test its 50 dma; though it came close. It is at its highest level in about a month. Volume was a bit higher on the action and momentum is rising.

Breadth on the NYSE continued to rise and is making fresh all-time highs. I know that sounds bullish, and it is to a point, but we have to look at other indicators for confirmation.

Looking at sentiment, the OEX is neutral, while the CBOE is bullish. NAAIM did not change much and remains neutral. Because they still have the caution flag out, I can't get overly bullish. That's a key sentiment reading that suggests we may not be on the way to new highs, though it could be wrong. Time will tell. For now, I would temper bullish expectations. If price keeps rising in the short term, that will help firm up the bullish argument.

I am modestly bullish now on the S&P breakout and rising breadth.
 
The bulls had a good week last week with all 3 TSP stocks funds closing with more than 1% gains. The S fund is lagging, however.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Fridays the S&P 500 eke out another gain, but price is still well short of the July high. The DWCPF has yet to break above its 50 dma, but at least it remains above the 200 dma. Momentum continues to rise for now.

My intermediate term system remains positive as does breadth. The OEX is neutral, while the CBOE is bullish. NAAIM is neutral.

It is still a mixed picture with large caps outperforming smaller and mids. Sentiment is largely neutral and my technical indicators look okay for the most part.

I have to give the nod to the bulls since they have the momentum and breadth is supportive. I am not sure how much more upside the market can give us and NAAIM is not the bullish survey it once was. They are obviously hedging their bets, which I would take as a caution flag. Small caps are also hinting of possible difficulty with the upside down the road.
 
Since I no longer have an account at Stockcharts, I'm using freecharts (as best I can). It's not the same, but it will work.

The bulls eked out more gains today. The DWCPF has still not pushed past its 50 dma. Today's action did have a toppy feel to it.

This evening, the options are looking neutral. NAAIM is neutral from last week.TSP Talk is actually a bit bearish given the neutral reading from NAAIM. In other words, we're bullish and NAAIM is neutral. I don't think we're as much smart money as NAAIM is. Just sayin'.

Breadth is still bullish.

I think the market has something to prove as far as how strong this bull is. The DWCPF has lagged, which is dampens bullish sentiment (generally). I am not comfortable with sentiment. I don't think it favors bulls or bears. I suspect we'll see another turn lower before long, but it doesn't have to be a big drop. For now, the bulls are still in control, but not comfortably so.
 
I'd like to thank DreamboatAnnie for posting the S&P 500 and DWCPF chart links in her account thread for me to access. It sure helps to have some navigation tools I'm familiar with. :smile:

The main thing about the charts I'd like to point out this evening, is that price on the DWCPF closed at its 50 dma. It did not make any serious attempt to push past it (yet), but at least it tagged that key average. We'll have to see if it can jump the creek now.

Cumulative breadth on the NYSE is still rising (bullish).

The OEX is neutral this evening as is the CBOE. No help there.

Not all that much has changed with today's action. I've been giving the bulls the nod since they have breadth in their favor and no one is actually bearish. The neutral sentiment may actually be helping the bulls as many do not seem to have strong expectations either way. So the wall of worry does seem to be in play.

I remain modestly bullish, but we need to see the DWCPF clear that 50 dma.
 
Yesterday, I said the following:

"I've been giving the bulls the nod since they have breadth in their favor and no one is actually bearish. The neutral sentiment may actually be helping the bulls as many do not seem to have strong expectations either way. So the wall of worry does seem to be in play."

Indeed. Today's action was lopsided in the bulls favor. Price on the DWCPF shot well past resistance at the 50 dma. The market closed pretty much at their highs of the day. That's decidedly bullish. Breadth, which was already bullish, is looking even more so. It's possible this move has legs. Does the S&P 500 test its previous highs? It might. We'll have to see.

This evening, the OEX is bearish, while the CBOE is bullish. That's not much help as they offset. Having said that, a pullback makes sense after today's shot to the upside. And it would be healthy if we get it.

The bulls remain in charge. NAAIM reports tomorrow.
 
Not much changed today as far the indicators and sentiment go. The S&P tacked on more gains, while the DWCPF remained flat. The options are neutral again, but NAAIM came in more bullish. Not as bullish as they were months ago, but they are not indicating anything serious as far as the downside goes. In other words, I think we continue to melt up, pullbacks notwithstanding.
 
Despite toppy action over the past few days, the bulls steadily clawed their way higher. Both the S&P and DWCPF have price above their respective 50 and 200 dma's. However, price on both charts remain below previous highs, so there is still resistance above.

Breadth, while bullish, looks toppy. But toppy can last for weeks. Other indicators are not stretched, so there is room for price to move higher still.

NAAIM did come in more bullish, but not all out bullish, so I am not sure if we'll see price power higher or simply melt up. I suspect the latter. The options are neutral. TSP Talk is quite bullish again. That doesn't mean as much as it used to.

The bulls remain in charge. Sentiment is neutral to modestly bullish overall. Breadth is bullish. Now we need to see if price can cut through what is left of resistance. For what it is worth, I suspect the market will eventually hit fresh highs.
 
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