coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

It seems like Trump would not want any form of crash, reset, recession, whatever its called prior to November 2020? I disagree with the X22 guy's take that Trump looks good no matter what the Fed does. I doubt Trump thinks that either.

No one knows exactly how it plays out. I don't always agree with Dave on X22 either, but I always remind myself that none of us has all the dots connected. We don't know the plan and plan does change as the playing field shifts. We have to make adjustments. Moves and counter moves. I do believe he is one of the best at articulating the underlying framework of events.

Remember what I said in yesterday's post. The main stream narrative has suddenly shifted (recession, recession, recession). That means the powers that be (not POTUS) are now actively trying to cause the recession as their latest attempt to weaken him. POTUS is now using their latest scheme and is going to turn it against them. I sometimes tell people to think of it like Judo. Use your opponents weight against them so-to-speak.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Understood. The only thing that we all can truly, truly put our absolute confidence and trust in is that God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son so that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have eternal life. The true King will return, it could even be today.

 

[coolhand]

Understood. The only thing that we all can truly, truly put our absolute confidence and trust in is that God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son so that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have eternal life. The true King will return, it could even be today.

Ultimately, this really is all that matters. I'm ready. :smile:

 

[pmaloney]

I'm ready too! :smile:
I just finished reading through The Creature From Jekyll Island summaries. Very interesting!
Thanks again.

 

[nnuut]

I'm ready too! :smile:
I just finished reading through The Creature From Jekyll Island summaries. Very interesting!
Thanks again.

Been there, read that!

 

[FAAM]

Ultimately, this really is all that matters. I'm ready. :smile:

I "REC" that! :smile:

 

[coolhand]

The bulls bounced the market as I suspected in Friday's post.




We can see how volatile the market has gotten over the past month or so. Price has remained above the 200 dma on the S&P, but it's also remained below the 50 dma for most of August. The DWCPF isn't much different, though price on that index is trying to stay above the 200 dma. Today, despite the bounce, price closed at the 200 dma, which isn't overly inspiring for the bulls. But they are fighting back against the selling pressure.

This evening, the OEX is leaning bullish as is the CBOE. Maybe we get some upside follow through on this. Breadth has turned positive again, but because it's tracking sideways to a large extent, we can't depend on it as much as if the market was trending.

I am leaning bullish for Tuesday, but I am not overly bullish on the prospect. News has been a catalyst to push price around and that makes it tough for bulls and bears to get comfortable. Remember, NAAIM is not bearish for the most part, so I would like to think that the downside still remains limited, but we need to allow for a wider range of action.

 

[coolhand]

I was looking for continued upside for Tuesday, and we actually got it. It just didn't last past the morning session.




The S&P 500 chart still looks okay given the 200 dma has not been challenged. We can't say the same for the DWCPF as price under that key average once again. Momentum is flat at best.

The options are now leaning a bit bearish this evening. Breadth is neutral. My intermediate term system remains negative.

So, the battle continues. I'm neutral for Wednesday. With price on the DWCPF now below the 200 dma, we may see an attempt to prop up that portion of the stock market soon, but the S&P would likely benefit from any upside attempt as well.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls pulled stocks back up on Wednesday, but price fell short of getting back above the 200 dma on the DWCPF.




The DWCPF looks more vulnerable than the S&P, but if the S&P remains resilient, the DWCPF should benefit to some extent. But that is the weaker of the two indexes.

This evening, the options are bearish. Futures are pointing lower in the early going, so we may very well get yet another reversal come Thursday. Breadth is positive again, but has been tracking within a range for about a month, so there is no trend as far as breadth is concerned.

I am looking lower for Thursday. NAAIM reports in the morning (usually).

 

[coolhand]

Well, you can't be sure what may happen on any given day in this wacky market. I was leaning bearish on the options market reading, but we got a shot to the upside instead. I'm sure you'll take it. :smile:




So, price on the S&P is back in its upper trading range (resistance) at the close. Price easily cleared and closed above the 200 dma on the DWCPF. Momentum is turning up again. But we're still in the trading range on both charts. Breadth spiked higher today and back at the upper end of range. Volume is bullish on the NYSE at the moment.

The options are neutral this evening. NAAIM backed off their moderately bullish stance a bit and are now about neutral.

I just don't have anything to point to that might give me a clue how long this market bounces around. NAAIM's reading leads me to believe we have more up/down action coming. Friday looks neutral. The TSP stock funds are currently sporting gains for the week. Hopefully, the bulls can close out the week and keep those gains.

 

[coolhand]

Futures are up enough early this morning that I would venture to anticipate the S&P tests its 50 dma today. Are we soon to break out of the trading range over the days ahead? It's too soon to know of course, but it's certainly something to keep an eye on.

 

[nasa1974]

Futures are up enough early this morning that I would venture to anticipate the S&P tests its 50 dma today. Are we soon to break out of the trading range over the days ahead? It's too soon to know of course, but it's certainly something to keep an eye on.

It really feels like the market is playing to the news media. Tariff news mostly. Good news from Washington the market is up, bad news the market is down. Hong Kong is going to be a player as well. With the long weekend and the Dorian hitting Florida........

 

[coolhand]

It really feels like the market is playing to the news media. Tariff news mostly. Good news from Washington the market is up, bad news the market is down. Hong Kong is going to be a player as well. With the long weekend and the Dorian hitting Florida........

With respect to Dorian, there is a good chance I'm without power at some point after this storm makes landfall. Maybe for a few days. :worried:

 

[Bquat]

Okay. Just as long as you can get back on line right after Labor Day.:cheesy: Ft Walton is nice for Labor Day weekend.

 

[Bquat]

Sorry I didn't realize how bad it was until I saw the news.

 

[coolhand]

Sorry I didn't realize how bad it was until I saw the news.

It's not a problem. We've been through a number of them already, but this one could be the worst. They are now saying that it's possible the storm works its way up the coast and just rakes us from offshore, but that remains to be seen.

 

[1965Vintage]

Good luck to you Coolhand!
In my part of the world (Red State) we have lots of flooding along the rivers.
Thing is, if you love where you live, you deal with the floods/ hurricanes.
Me.... I'm moving to the mountains when I retire!

Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

 

[coolhand]

If you live in Georgia or the Carolinas, hurricane risk is now elevated. Florida is still impacted even if it doesn't make landfall. This storm looks to be maximizing its potential to affect as many as possible given its current projected path.

 

[coolhand]

It's amazing how quickly the path of this storm is changing. Computer models are now predicting it will turn North even sooner (and maybe out to sea).

 

[Scout333]

Cool Hope everything goes well for you during Dorian! Stay safe! Hopefully it spins out into the Atlantic and disappears. Best of luck to you and yours!
Scout