coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

The market chopped around to begin the new week. The technical indicators did not change much. The CBOE is bullish again. Breadth remains bullish.

I don't have much to add this evening. I remain modestly bullish for the week.

 

[coolhand]

As anticipated, the market moved higher once again. For hefty gains too. Price on the DWCPF has now recaptured its 50 dma. Both charts have improved quickly, but there is more work for the bulls to do before they can relax.

Cumulative breadth, already bullish, moved higher still. The CBOE remains bullish.

I suspect the market will digest gains soon. I don't think it can rally on without some consolidation. The DWCPF has some catching up to do as well. I really would like to see that index outpace the S&P as it would lend more credence that the rally might have legs.

 

[coolhand]

Not much changed today. We are still not seeing the DWCPF come to life. It dipped on the day, but remains above key levels.

Breadth remains bullish. The CBOE has not reported. Overall, we are about where we were yesterday from a technical perspective. NAAIM reports sometime Thursday.

 

[coolhand]

The market is still looking okay. Price on the S&P is trying to flirt with the 3000 level. Obviously, this could be resistance. The DWCPF pushed higher to the upside, but the chart is not all that inspiring, though price is above the 50 and 200 dma's. It has a lot of work to do to get back to its previous peak.

Breadth remains solidly bullish.

The bad news is that NAAIM did not change a whole lot. They were neutral before and remain so. They are implying that this market is still vulnerable as the bears among them have increased their short positions. Nothing dramatic, but it is hard to get overly bullish when the smart money is neutral.

Given the S&P is flirting with the 3000 area, the NAAIM reading suggests we head back down again soon, but by how much I am not sure. If they were bearish overall, I'd be more concerned.

 

[coolhand]

The market closed out with moderate gains for TSP stock funds last week. Friday's action was negative. In fact, price on the DWCPF tested its 50 and 200 dma's, but closed above them, so it was a successful test (support).

Friday's negative action may result in continued downside pressure given that NAAIM remains neutral and the S&P was flirting with its 3000 level. Breadth does remain bullish, so that implies any downside action should be somewhat limited.

TSP Talk sentiment remains pretty bullish, more bullish than I'd be comfortable with given NAAIM's reading. The CBOE closed very high, which may be bearish for Monday.

I am modestly bearish for the new week, largely because of sentiment that is overall neutral. Remember that NAAIM is smart money, so that is the more important reading of the one's I follow.

 

[wahinepio]

Appreciate it Cool

 

[coolhand]

I had expected weakness for Monday, but the bulls pushed the S&P back over the 3000 instead with moderate gains. I'm not entirely surprised, as breadth was bullish.

In fact, breadth looks pretty good. NAAIM sitting neutral seems somewhat odd. But then again, the DWCPF isn't near its all-time highs, so the rally is not even.

My indicators are looking neutral this evening, including sentiment. I'm neutral for Tuesday.

 

[coolhand]

The pulled back a bit today, but you wouldn't know it looking at cumulative breadth, as it actually ticked just a bit higher. That may be a function of market strength earlier in the trading day.

The CBOE is neutral this evening. My other indicators remains largely neutral.

I remain neutral as we head into Wednesday.

 

[coolhand]

After recent weakness, the market retraced some of the losses to close positive on the day. No changes to my indicators overall. I do note that cumulative breadth on the NYSE is pulling away to the upside. There certainly seems to be a bid under this market even though we are not in a strong uptrend. The DWCPF in particular has not hit a higher high in some time now and is close to its 50 and 200 dma's as opposed to the S&P, which is further elevated above those same benchmarks and not all that far from its overall highs. It's an uneven picture, but a seemingly supported one. I'm am sure most of you are aware of the money pumping in progress by the CB. That is likely the reason for the inability of the bears to do any serious damage. But I don't know if the bulls can take advantage of it.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain neutral.

 

[coolhand]

The market remained resilient today with price rising on the S&P and DWCPF.

Breadth remains bullish, but actually dipped a bit on the day. The dip is not meaningful, but perhaps a bit odd given the positive day.

NAAIM remains neutral, however the bears among them have backed off on their bearish expectations, so this is a plus for the bulls.

I note that TRINQ (Nasdaq) is bearish this evening. That index may experience weakness on Friday, but overall the market looks neutral to modestly bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The market tacked on some pretty good gains last week. However, there has not been any breakouts as yet. Given NAAIM remains neutral, I am not looking for a breakout at this time. But NAAIM did back off their bearish positions, so it appears there remains a bid under the market.

The indicators continue to look bullish. Breadth is still rising. Momentum is up. The CBOE is on the bullish side. TSP Talk remains bullish.

I suspect the upside bias will continue.

 

[coolhand]

Yesterday, I said I was not looking for a breakout at this time, but I was not looking at the right chart and did not realize how close the S&P was to a new high. Not a big deal, but I would not have said that if I had the right chart in front me. Having said that, the DWCPF remains well below its high. But it's moving in the right direction. It just has resistance to deal with while the S&P has nothing overhead. That's encouraging for the bulls.

Cumulative breadth remains strong to the upside. It remains quite bullish.

I am expecting continued upside bias, at least as long as breadth remains strong.

 

[coolhand]

The market went largely nowhere today. The S&P remains poised to possibly add to its gains (there is not really any overhead resistance).



Looking at the DWCPF however, we can see price is testing resistance at the previous peak. So far, it's holding.

Cumulative breadth remains solidly bullish. I note that TRINQ is bullish for Wednesday.

I don't think the resistance on the DWCPF is a big issue as long as breadth remains bullish. The fact that the S&P remains near its high supports my perspective as well. I'm not saying we can't see a pullback, but the evidence I am looking at is leaning bullish at least for Wednesday.

 

[coolhand]

That rate cut today will favor the bulls over time. The market rallied once it was announced. The S&P continues to drift to the upside with no overhead resistance. The DWCPF closed at resistance again. I am expecting that index to break through it sooner or later. Likely sooner.

The CBOE is bullish this evening. Breadth remains bullish. The upside bias should continue.

 

[coolhand]

Apparently, NAAIM thought the rate cut was bullish too, as they got bulled up this week. That's all for this evening.

 

[coolhand]

Are you ready? I've alluded to problems in the financial sphere in the past. No one can time this and we can never be sure when something might happen that takes us by surprise.

Emergency! Bank Run Starting Globally! Bank of America Goes Dark! - Video | Economy

Lots of other warnings are out there. Listening to X22?

 

[wahinepio]

Listening

 

[coolhand]

Friday's positive action confirmed the current bullish bias. It also confirmed NAAIM's fresh bullish stance.



We can also see that price on the DWCPF closed at a higher high. Another confirmation; especially with nothing but air above the S&P's closing price.

Breadth remains very bullish. The CBOE is bullish heading into Monday. TRINQ is bullish for Monday as well.

All of this bullishness used to be a marker for a top, but I am not so sure that will be the case. Certainly, the market can pull back, but I don't think the bears can mount much of an attack. And the insiders at NAAIM agree for the time being.

I am looking for more upside bias as this week unfolds.

 

[coolhand]

As expected, the market continued its upward bias on Monday. The indicators have not changed all that much, but TRINQ is suggesting some give back. That the Nasdaq and it doesn't necessarily mean that any weakness that manifests won't be reversed during the trading day.

The CBOE remains bullish. NAAIM is bullish. Breadth is bullish. The charts are bullish. The upward bias should continue.

 

[coolhand]

The market tried to add to its gains early on today, but was unable to hold on though the trading day as the S&P and DWCPF posted relatively modest losses, which does nothing to dampen the bullish nature of the market right now.

Nothing has changed. The bulls are still in control.