coolhand's Account Talk

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WRT the cost of higher education, the institutions that provide them are out of control, suffer from largess and are unconstrained on spending (and educational salaries, paid sabbaticals, free online courses (who's paying the instructors? They're not working for free), and are no longer providing quality educations; certainly not at the rates they are charging the students. Especially in the nonsensical majors that they are offering, and the lack of guidance to the students into majors and courses of study and grade performance that will actually make them employable. The liberal indoctrination centers need to be shut down and true centers for higher educations and learning, at a reasonable cost, should be established.
 
IDK... my part of our Administration has hired a bunch of Engineers from variety of universities in the last couple of years... all are quite sharp & seemed to have received as good an education as those 30-to-40 years ago. Agree with a lot of your higher education comments Whip, costs escalation and all, though I know in my State Universities, a large factor of cost increases have been great diminishing of State support/contributions since 70's/80's (big lumber price declines & already cut down most of the Old Growth forests on State DNR land - proceeds of that are mostly used for education; oh, and that public want same or more while cutting taxes over that time. Suppose I guess, that'll all be repaired when, similar to what you said of higher-ed, our way-way expensive per capita health care in USA with way-way poor performance on national averages & statistics for our HC$ -- when that is fixed too. Would be nice to fix both of those: think these would be major long-term lifts for our National economy.
 
Well the answer to inefficient government run programs has traditionally been the private sector. Just look at SpaceX and the other private rocket companies bringing down the cost of entering space.

So what about the private educational institutions and for-profit universities? Are they significantly cheaper than the state run universities? The last time I looked they were actually more expensive but were good at getting students federal loans and putting them deeper into debt.
 
The market closed mixed today. The action continues to suggest preparation for the next push higher, but that doesn't mean a low is in. The rally is likely to come from lower.

NYAD.png

I am posting cumulative bread for the NYSE, which is the chart I follow. I said yesterday that it is weakening, but still bullish. You can see the gentle slope lower, but the signal remains above the 2 key averages I've embedded. We can see in this chart that in the past the signal breached at least one of those averages before finding its footing and going into a sustained rise. This is why I think that the rally may come from lower.

NAAIM reports in the morning. I am still bullish, but as I said the market may need to pullback before it can get its footing for another push higher.
 
The market managed to tack on gains today, but it was not exactly a show of force. The action seems tired.

Breadth did tick higher, but only a little. It remains bullish. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral.

NAAIM backed off their bullishness, but they are not bearish. They are now neutral. However, that lends some credence that the market may need to reset from lower. Understand that the bears among them are not making big, bearish bets, so they are not showing any conviction. It would seem that any weakness would likely be contained, should we get some.

I am not as bullish as I was given the change in NAAIM sentiment. I am now neutral to modestly bullish.
 
Friday's positive action was certainly interesting given how tired the market was acting. The TSP stock funds posted decent gains on the week. And now the S&P 500 has pushed even higher with no upside resistance to oppose it.

The CBOE is pretty bullish for Monday. Cumulative breadth has turned up hard and suggests it may have legs, but no guarantee on that. TRIN and TRINQ are actually bearish from a contrarian perspective, which is how I normally use it, but is this market normal? No, it's not. NAAIM is neutral, which isn't inspiring, but they aren't bearish either.

The TSP Talk survey remains pretty bullish. I can't trust that survey to the extent I used to. We've on the right side many times on extreme readings.

So, the indicators are collectively bullish as long as I do not use any signals as contrarian. The S&P chart is bullish regardless. The DWCPF is now testing its July highs. About another 50 points above that is its all-time high (Aug 2018).

If the powers that be want higher prices (and it seems they do), we should not fight it. But we could see a decline at any time. But that could be next week or sometime beyond that. And we are getting into the more bullish time of year.

I just don't have comfort in the bearish case. That's the bottom line. I remain neutral to modestly bullish.
 
The S&P eked out more gains today. The DWCPF pulled back modestly. Breadth dipped, but remains bullish. This evening, the CBOE is neutral.

The market remains in a neutral to modestly bullish stance overall.
 
Depending on which index you look at, you either made money or lost some money. In other words, the indexes closed mixed.

You have to like the S&P chart; it's patently bullish. The DWCPF is doing okay, but still has some work to do to get into orbit with the S&P.

The CBOE is bullish this evening. Remember that last week NAAIM was neutral, though the action has still shown a positive bias (so far). It will be interesting if their stance changes on Thursday.

Breadth is tracking sideways, but remains bullish.

No change to my market expectations. I remain neutral to modestly bullish.
 
Isn't it fashionable how the market waits till after 12pm to decide direction. Happens way too often imo. Is this the Hindenburg Omen starting to set in?? Or will the volatility kick in big time? I'm still 100% G but sure missed out on a nice move.
 
BooDog said:
Isn't it fashionable how the market waits till after 12pm to decide direction. Happens way too often imo. Is this the Hindenburg Omen starting to set in?? Or will the volatility kick in big time? I'm still 100% G but sure missed out on a nice move.
Click to expand...

It's frustrating for those who are playing it safe. NAAIM backed off their bullishness some last week because they apparently were not completely comfortable with being overly leveraged on the long side. The Hindenburg Omen's have been known to be precursors to sell-offs, but we know they are not 100% accurate.

There are plenty of reasons to be on the sidelines (as am I). But I have exposure to precious metal too (real money), so I am prepared when things eventually go South.

I wish I could pinpoint how long that would take. I watched a Lynette Zang interview today where one of the viewers sent in a question on that very thing, and she said she had no way of knowing. She also said to look for her next interview on the SGT Report where she was going to reveal something big. She didn't hint at what it was, but I"ll be looking for it over the next week or so. I enjoy her perspective.
 
We got a moderate pullback today, which is not a bad thing. No technical damage to speak of. I do note that price on the DWCPF is struggling to push past a key resistance area, but it is still poised to try to break it if the bulls can get it together.

NYAD.png

Breadth remains bullish, but as you can see from the chart, the signal is tracking sideways. We had a similar pattern in September that gave way to a decline before eventually resolving higher. I think the odds favor a similar outcome here, but I could be wrong.

The CBOE has not yet posted so I don't know how they are positioned. They've been bullish of late. NAAIM report tomorrow. That will give us a better idea of what we might expect in the action for the following week.
 
coolhand said:
It's frustrating for those who are playing it safe. NAAIM backed off their bullishness some last week because they apparently were not completely comfortable with being overly leveraged on the long side. The Hindenburg Omen's have been known to be precursors to sell-offs, but we know they are not 100% accurate.

There are plenty of reasons to be on the sidelines (as am I). But I have exposure to precious metal too (real money), so I am prepared when things eventually go South.

I wish I could pinpoint how long that would take. I watched a Lynette Zang interview today where one of the viewers sent in a question on that very thing, and she said she had no way of knowing. She also said to look for her next interview on the SGT Report where she was going to reveal something big. She didn't hint at what it was, but I"ll be looking for it over the next week or so. I enjoy her perspective.
Click to expand...

thanks for the heads up on SGT🤙
 
coolhand said:
It's frustrating for those who are playing it safe. NAAIM backed off their bullishness some last week because they apparently were not completely comfortable with being overly leveraged on the long side. The Hindenburg Omen's have been known to be precursors to sell-offs, but we know they are not 100% accurate.

There are plenty of reasons to be on the sidelines (as am I). But I have exposure to precious metal too (real money), so I am prepared when things eventually go South.

I wish I could pinpoint how long that would take. I watched a Lynette Zang interview today where one of the viewers sent in a question on that very thing, and she said she had no way of knowing. She also said to look for her next interview on the SGT Report where she was going to reveal something big. She didn't hint at what it was, but I"ll be looking for it over the next week or so. I enjoy her perspective.
Click to expand...

Thanks Coolhand, I'll be checking it out as well.

Yesterday could easily be pegged as simple consolidation but we'll see. I'm fairly neutrtal at the moment. Take a glance at nasa1974's post with the December TSP #'s history.

nasa1974 said:
Here are December's numbers.

View attachment 45074
Click to expand...
Link in case it didn't come through in the quote... https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/attachme...74249030-nasa1974s-account-talk-december-xlsx

Of course it leaves plenty to the imagination/speculation of what to expect through December but it is another tool in the toolbox. BTW, thanks for that Nasa1974!
 
More selling today, but still no serious cracks in the bull's armor. It's still a healthy pullback.

The CBOE is neutral. NAAIM got a bit more bullish. I'd say they are now on the bullish side as opposed to neutral last week. Even if we get more selling, this reading suggests it should not be significant.

Breadth has now gone neutral as it dipped below my 21 day moving average.

Overall, I think more selling could manifest, but it should be contained. It's the bulls who still command the market.
 
The market posted modest to moderate losses last week (C, S and I funds) as the battle over direction of the market continued between the bulls and bears.

The S&P remains near its all-time high and could potentially push even higher easily enough. The DWCPF continues to struggle with resistance, but has not been giving up much downside either. While one could argue that the DWCPF is indicating fatigue and a probable pullback (at resistance), the S&P is not in the same boat. That chart remains bullish.

What are we to believe moving forward? Understand that this market is not moving so much on trading activity, which is an just an overlay on the actual foundation of price movement. Monetary control is really at the heart of the action (battle between at least 2 forces). So, be prepared as best you can for potential surprises.

The CBOE is neutral to modesty bullish. NAAIM is bullish. TSP Talk scaled back their bullishness to a neutral stance.

Cumulative breadth remains technically bullish, but because it is still tracking sideways I would not get too complacent on that reading. The market could break either way.

Overall, I remain neutral to modestly bullish as we head into the new week.
 
I always appreciate your insight Cool. Keep it coming and have a great Sunday!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
We can now put the DWCPF more firmly into the bullish camp after today's huge rally as price closed well above a key resistance level (there is more resistance above). I don't think it's a fake out. Not with the S&P hitting a fresh all-time high.

The CBOE is neutral this evening. Cumulative breadth moved smartly higher (bullish).

The action was bullish and bodes well moving forward.
 
No change from yesterday. The market tacked on more gains. Breadth remains bullish. The CBOE is neutral. Most of my other indicators are either neutral or bullish.

I remain bullish.
 
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