coolhand's Account Talk

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Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

So far this week, the TSP stock funds are doing very well; especially the S fund. All are over 1% and the S fund is up almost 2.5%.

I know the action is bullish, but I want to caution that things can go South in a hurry. I am not suggesting that such is imminent, I don't think it is, but it is all too easy to lose site of the fact that a rising market is not necessarily an indication of sound underlying fundamentals. Money printing can do wonders for optics. And in my previous post I took you to a link with a very recent interview with Lynette Zang, who is a very popular financial guru in some circles. That interview helps frame the reality of what is really going on.

Let's get on to the current pulse of the market.

The S&P and DWCPF are pulling away from their consolidation areas. Obviously, that is technically bullish. However, the indexes are getting overbought. That is just something to not, but I am not concerned with that as they can get a lot more overbought.

The CBOE is neutral. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral. NAAIM came in mostly unchanged. They were bullish last week and remain so this week. The bears among them are not challenging this market (shorting) much. That's a good thing if you are long stocks. Cumulative breadth is bullish and rising.

In summary, I am flabbergasted (as Lynette is) with how this market defies gravity, but I understand why it's happening. I cannot predict with precision how long this will go on, so everyone has to determine their personal comfort level with stock exposure. Gold and Silver are touted by many as good hedges (just saying).

Technically, the market remains bullish and the latest NAAIM reading suggests that will not change in the immediate future.
 
The TSP stock funds had a good week last week. Friday's action saw price dip, but that weakness did little to dent the bullish demeanor of this market.

For Monday, the CBOE is neutral. TSP Talk came in quite bullish. NAAIM is bullish, but not over-the-top so.

Breadth remains positive, but it did dip on Friday.

I suspect this week may bring more of the same upside bias. The holidays are approaching, which means seasonality may help to contribute to the bull party at some point. That is not a lock however, as last year the holidays saw significant selling pressure. But that outcome not typical.

I remain bullish, but not complacent.
 
The market opened the week with a big red candlestick across the averages. It was due given the extent of the rally. But will weakness early in the month set up the Santa rally in the days ahead? It's possible.

This evening, the CBOE is neutral. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral.

NYAD.png

Cumulative breadth has taken a good hit the past 2 trading days and has gone from an all-time peak to neutral as the signal crossed the first warning area today. However, the signal is at the lower end a range that spans about a month. Is the market losing steam or setting up the next extended rally? This does remain a bull market, and that means a lot.

It doesn't hurt that NAAIM is bullish either.

I remain bullish overall despite the potential for more weakness in the short term.
 
The market picked up where it left off on Monday as price gapped lower at the open. The bulls got some traction in the afternoon session and managed to close well off the lows, but some technical damage was done. Generally, price bounced off support. Hopefully, it holds for the bulls.

The CBOE is bearish this evening. Breadth fell lower and is close to going negative.

At this point, we'll have to see if support holds. The bears may try to test it again in the days ahead; perhaps even tomorrow. Hopefully, this weakness dissipates by the middle of next week as we approach the strong holiday season. I am optimistic it may be a springboard to an end-of-year rally, though I am not predicting such.
 
coolhand said:
.... At this point, we'll have to see if support holds. The bears may try to test it again in the days ahead; perhaps even tomorrow. Hopefully, this weakness dissipates by the middle of next week as we approach the strong holiday season. I am optimistic it may be a springboard to an end-of-year rally, though I am not predicting such.
Click to expand...

Thank you (sir?) again for sharing keen thoughts, insights. Tsunami on his thread posted about waves; perhaps up now, then down, with another UP perhaps next Tuesday. I waded a bit more into CSI COB Monday leaving some in F and most in G, still. So, keeping some powder dry hoping both your hopes/thoughts come true in a week or so. Yet, wondering what a zero-trade deal and the other twit-tariffs could do on that 15-DEC deadline(?). Hope not for a repeat of last year where Market Santa needed a Rudolph or something. G'day!
 
FAAM said:
Thank you (sir?) again for sharing keen thoughts, insights. Tsunami on his thread posted about waves; perhaps up now, then down, with another UP perhaps next Tuesday. I waded a bit more into CSI COB Monday leaving some in F and most in G, still. So, keeping some powder dry hoping both your hopes/thoughts come true in a week or so. Yet, wondering what a zero-trade deal and the other twit-tariffs could do on that 15-DEC deadline(?). Hope not for a repeat of last year where Market Santa needed a Rudolph or something. G'day!
Click to expand...

There are many news events coming over the next couple of months that a are very likely to drive the market (FISA, Brexit, Trade, Tariffs, etc.). Those are the ones that are known, but there will some that we won't see coming. These events are used for more than 1 purpose, but 1 of them is to drive the market for the purpose of optics; and optics drives public perception. The longer term trend remains a bull until proven otherwise. NAAIM is our friend and they're bullish. :smile:
 
The bulls bounced the market today, retracing a portion of the previous 2 days of losses. At this point, it may be just an oversold bounce with another test of the lows on the horizon. I suspect we'll know in the next few trading days.

This evening, the CBOE is bullish. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral. Breadth flipped back to positive, but the signal is near the center of a 5-week trading range, so I can't get too excited about it. However, this does remain a bull market and the most positive seasonality of the year is approaching. NAAIM being bullish doesn't hurt either.

I remain longer term bullish.
 
Wow. I respect your opinion. But this is a fools market. In my opinion of course....
Soon we shall see. I wish the best for all!
Thanks again for your daily perspective. It is a valuable part of my research. I value your opinion.
Live long and prosper!



Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
 
1965Vintage said:
Wow. I respect your opinion. But this is a fools market. In my opinion of course....
Soon we shall see. I wish the best for all!
Thanks again for your daily perspective. It is a valuable part of my research. I value your opinion.
Live long and prosper!



Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
Click to expand...

There has been numerous times over the months that I have cautioned that this market is extremely deceptive. I tell folks to watch the daily X22 Report to get an idea of why I say so. However, I can't be a perma bear as the market can be irrational longer than any of us can remain solvent. So, I follow the indicators that I like and set my underlying concerns about the market aside and simply let folks know what I see on a daily basis. I've stated such in the past. No one should be surprised when the bull goes down, however. We just can't predict it with any precision.

Thanks for the drive by. :smile:
 
Bulls and bears battled to somewhat of a draw today.

This evening, the CBOE is neutral. TRINQ is bullish (Naz) for Friday. Breadth ticked a bit higher and remains bullish, but in a horizontal trading channel.

NAAIM came in relatively unchanged, so they remain collectively bullish.

Friday looks like it may be a positive day. My longer term outlook remains bullish.
 
The market closed out the week last week relatively unchanged. Friday's rally was a big boost for the bulls. The chart(s) show a possible "V" bottom or a bull flag. But price is near resistance, so we'll have to see if price can move past it.

Cumulative breadth, which was under pressure early last week, is now at another high for the NYSE. Amazing how fast things can turn.

The CBOE is neutral for Monday. TSP Talk is less bullish, but still bullish. NAAIM is also bullish, and that's the one to follow.

Still not change to my outlook, which is bullish. Seasonality gets more bullish as we move forward, so the bulls have some leverage to drive this market higher.
 
The market opened the week with a moderate pullback this Monday. It was a perfectly healthy dip and price remains near its highs on both the S&P and DWCPF. This is an area of resistance, but I expect price to eventually push through this area to upside.

My indicators did not change much today. The CBOE is neutral. Breadth remains bullish.

I remain bullish.
 
Price danced above and below the neutral line on the charts today, settling modestly lower at the close. The action did little to change my indicators.

This evening, the CBOE is bearish. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral. Breadth dipped slightly lower, but remains bullish.

The market seems to be having some trouble near its peak as resistance is holding so far, but I suspect the market is waiting for some kind of event to propel higher. I say higher because this is still a bull market and the longer term should kept in that context. Yes, many of us are aware that things are not what they seem, but good luck predicting exactly when "it's different this time".

I remain bullish.
 
It was another choppy trading day, but this time the averages closed above the neutral line. Still, it was nothing to get excited about, though the bulls can remain confident given price is holding not far below resistance. At some point, I expect that resistance will get tested and I am leaning toward an upside break when it does.

The CBOE has not reported at the time of this writing. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral. Cumulative breadth ticked higher on the NYSE and hit another high. It's has been and remains bullish.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bullish.
 
The S&P 500 broke out to the upside today, which I've been expecting. The DWCPF, which also rallied, did not break out. But it isn't far from doing so if can sustain an upward bias heading into the holidays.

The CBOE is bullish for Friday. TRIN and TRINQ look bullish for Friday as well.

NYAD.png

Cumulative breadth on the NYSE has come on smartly over the past week and half or so. You can see by the chart it is breaking to the upside after more than a month of range bound movement.

NAAIM came in relatively unchanged, which is bullish.

Today's bullish action coupled with the bullish indicators I've noted above suggests this upside move may have legs. Seasonality also supports that outcome.

I remain bullish.
 
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