coolhand's Account Talk

[1965Vintage]

The S&P 500 broke out to the upside today, which I've been expecting. The DWCPF, which also rallied, did not break out. But it isn't far from doing so if can sustain an upward bias heading into the holidays.

The CBOE is bullish for Friday. TRIN and TRINQ look bullish for Friday as well.

View attachment 45140

Cumulative breadth on the NYSE has come on smartly over the past week and half or so. You can see by the chart it is breaking to the upside after more than a month of range bound movement.

NAAIM came in relatively unchanged, which is bullish.

Today's bullish action coupled with the bullish indicators I've noted above suggests this upside move may have legs. Seasonality also supports that outcome.

I remain bullish.

I went against your calls. Big mistake!
My IFT's are done for Dec./19.
This market makes no sense to me!
But I should learn to listen to folks that are smarter than me!
Thanks for your perspective.
It is very, very valuable!


Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

 

[coolhand]

I went against your calls. Big mistake!
My IFT's are done for Dec./19.
This market makes no sense to me!
But I should learn to listen to folks that are smarter than me!
Thanks for your perspective.
It is very, very valuable!


Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

YW! :smile:

Yes, things are crazy. And sooner or later this market will roll over. There are no shortage of very visible pros out there who expected this market to fall apart years ago.

Manipulation can be exercised with long term success. Eventually, it too will fail, but it is almost impossible to predict with accuracy.

 

[MaStA]

I tried fighting the bull market last year by sitting on the sidelines after getting crushed earlier thinking a correction was coming. I went all in after I had enough and havent looked back. Forget trying to fight and time this current market.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

 

[coolhand]

Last week, the C and S funds both closed out with weekly gains; though the S fund was only marginally higher. The S fund has lagged the C fund for some time now, but it is still bullish.

The CBOE remains bullish (for Monday). TSP Talk sentiment shows that we are heavily bullish. NAAIM, the most important sentiment reading that I follow is also bullish.

Cumulative breadth on the NYSE remains bullish. I don't mention seasonality much anymore, but this time of year it is hard to ignore. It is historically bullish.

There are reasons to not trust this market despite the bullish indicators that I follow, but market direction is heavily influenced at the top as many of us have noted. And that influence can go on seemingly forever. It is not (and hasn't been for a long time now) a free and open market. Fundamentals are not of much value. Those are manipulated too. I hope some of you are listening to the X22 Report. They do a great job of framing reality.

Having said all that, I remain bullish based on the indicators alone.

 

[coolhand]

This is a post to follow up on one I posted a few days ago (below). There are a lot of high level financial folks follow this situation.

https://www.sgtreport.com/2019/12/epic-times-imminent-as-massive-fed-flood-begins-warren-buffett-indicator-worst-level-ever/

Very few can understand how the CB operates at the highest levels, but for those of you who have at least some basic understanding, you might be interested in this post...

"It's About to Get Very Bad" - Repo Market Legend Predicts Market Crash in Days! | Markets

 

[coolhand]

Here's another article pointing out the same thing my previous post did.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-needs-1-trillion-panic-money-printing-stave-implosion-not-market

 

[coolhand]

If you took a look at my previous 2 posts, you would know that there is massive (and that's an understatement) money printing going on. And it isn't trickling down to us either. The previous 2 posts gave charts that showed how the market rises when injections are made. The market is not rising on sentiment or seasonality or fundamentals, but money printing. You have to review the info in those previous 2 posts to better understand all of this.



Notice how one of my favorite charts is rising as well (NYSE Cumulative Breadth). It has been and remains bullish.

TRIN and TRINQ are 2 indicators that I watch in order to try and discern market direction on a daily basis. They have been largely neutral for weeks now. I'm just not seeing as much volatility as I once did. Just saying.

Nothing has changed with my perspective. I am bullish, but hardly complacent.

 

[coolhand]

The upward bias continued today. It should be no surprise that the bias remains up based on current indicators and high level influence.

This evening, the CBOE is bullish. TRIN and TRINQ remain neutral. Cumulative breadth is still rising (bullish).

No change. Conditions remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

While the S&P 500 dipped modestly today, our DWCPF chart tacked on more gains and appears to have broken free of resistance.



Looking at cumulative breadth (above), we see that money printing is still in progress. The signal is moving quickly above the averages I use to determine market conditions (bullish, bearish, neutral).

Keep in mind that as long as the Fed is printing like crazy, some of our indicators may not work or will be rendered ineffective. I stopped using the CBOE in a contrarian fashion months ago because I noticed that some timing tools were becoming somewhat of a liability or produced spotty results. I think it is safe to assume that the money printing has been forced in order to keep the "too big to fail" banks afloat. They are not likely to back off this printing quickly. The derivatives market and leveraged instruments will implode without continued intervention. That is the playground of the banks. There is a reason why NAAIM has been bullish lately. That is smart money.

This evening, the CBOE is bullish once more (they seem to get it too). TRIN and TRINQ are leaning bullish (another indicator I historically used in contrarian fashion, but not with the money printing going on).

I remain bullish. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

 

[coolhand]

Are you getting tired of winning yet? :smile:

It seems this market is on a mission and that mission is higher prices. We knew that. The indicators I use are telling us this. The S&P and DWCPF are both rising together as we head into the most seasonally positive time of year.

The CBOE has not reported, but I don't need it. They have been bullish and suspect they still are. The big news for the week is that NAAIM, which was already bullish, is now about a bullish as they can get.

Breadth continues to lift off even higher.

There isn't much else to add. NAAIM is saying "full steam ahead"!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi CH, Thank you so much for your daily postings on your read of the indicators and all the valuable information you provide. It's a must read for me! I especially learned from your $NYAD chart (breadth) yesterday, plus the commentary!

Best wishes to you and God Bless you!

 

[coolhand]

Both the C and S funds tacked on big gains last week, and it is very like there are more gains ahead.



This chart, which I have been posted about once a week of late, is flat out bullish. This is not a trivial market data point. It's a very important one and dovetails with the NAAIM sentiment readings. This is the cumulative breadth chart I speak to in pretty much all of my market posts.

At the close on Friday, the CBOE remained bullish. TRIN and TRINQ remain neutral. NAAIM is very bullish as is TSP Talk. Seasonality supports the bullish case as well.

It doesn't hurt that the central bank is printing money (out of survival). That is a big reason why I am bullish. It is in the bull's favor.

Having said that, that does not mean risk is meaningless. It is actually high simply because the central bank is scrambling to stay afloat. But, as I've pointed out several times in the past, we cannot predict how long this may go on. It could be a day, week, month or more than a year.

If sentiment at NAAIM changes, that would be a good clue to make an adjustment (if it changes enough).

 

[Mcqlives]

Awesome and brief summary. The overnight lending is insane and the cumulative amounts not getting paid back is stacking up to be huge. Scary when this House of card’s Falls

 

[coolhand]

Awesome and brief summary. The overnight lending is insane and the cumulative amounts not getting paid back is stacking up to be huge. Scary when this House of card’s Falls

I wish more people understood the mechanics of central banks and why they are not good for the people. It is financial slavery to both people and nations!

 

[Mcqlives]

Unfortunately I believe you are correct. The whole theory of central banks injecting capital and having this much influence is counter to basic capitalism. This be comes more blatantly obvious the longer it goes on. Go look at communist (or socialist) economies that have failed throughout the past 100 yrs and history shows what happens sooner or later. Weaning off the addiction of the amounts our fed is involved in will be very painful at some point. Hope I’m in g when it happens...and still know it will hurt.

 

[coolhand]

The market wasn't up big today, but it ended the day on the plus side (S&P and DWCPF).

This evening, the CBOE is bullish. TRIN and TRINQ are leaning bullish. Breadth remains bullish. Sentiment is currently bullish. The charts are bullish and so is seasonality.

You can probably draw your own conclusions by now. :laugh:

 

[coolhand]

It was a shortened trading day, this Christmas Eve. And uneventful.

Nothing has changed in my expectations or my indicators. Merry Christmas everyone.



John 3:16

For God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have everlasting life.

 

[pmaloney]

Merry Christmas! :smile:

 

[1965Vintage]

Merry Christmas Coolhand! :smile:

 

[coolhand]

How beautiful is this Christmas production? Hail to our King!!! Peace be with you all. :smile: