coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Today's upside breakout (so far) is what I have been expecting for a number of days now. Yes, it could be a fake out prior to the Fed announcement, but the indicators have been pointing to a continuation of the current uptrend.



The DWCPF really popped this morning. The S&P is also breaking out. It is interesting that the OEX (smart money) was bearish today. Now, we'll have to see what happens in the afternoon session, but NAAIM backed off their bearish positions last week and increased their bullish ones. I trust them a lot more than following the OEX.

Gold is trying to break out as well, but the CB is once again papering over the physical market and trying to prevent a rise in gold prices. This is a huge battleground right now. Gold is the future and spells doom for the CB if it breaks out.

 

[coolhand]

The market popped at the open today and while price closed well off its highs of the day, it closed with significant gains nonetheless.




The DWCPF has now joined the S&P with price closing above the 50 dma. There are no shortage of reasons for the rally, to include the obvious fed announcement (I am hearing they are leaning toward a rate cut) and continued talks between the U.S. and China (trade). Sell the news? Maybe, but even it does sell-off it probably won't last and the market will turn back up. I'm not bearish in any event.

The options are largely neutral this evening. Breadth rallied from an already bullish stance.

I think new highs are just a matter of time, short term gyrations notwithstanding.

 

[coolhand]

I said yesterday that any selling post-Fed would likely not amount to much and it didn't. Tomorrow is another day, however. Let's see how it shapes up.




Both charts look bullish. I still believe the May highs will be tested.

This evening, the OEX has moved to a neutral stance. The CBOE is leaning bearish. Breadth and the A/D Line both remain bullish as does my intermediate term system. Notably, Gold is at or near a 3 year high. If it continues to gain, things could get interesting (over time).

Gold movement aside, the indicators continue to point to higher prices. NAAIM reports in the morning.

 

[coolhand]

The rally continued today, which is what the indicators suggested.




We can see that price on the S&P 500 is at a fresh high. The index covered a lot of ground in less than 3 weeks. The DWCPF still has some work to do, but it isn't all that far from testing its highs.

Cumulative breadth continues to look bullish. The A/D Line is also quite bullish. This is a market on a mission from this perspective.

Is gold telling us something? It's now at 5 year highs. Silver is in rally mode too, but it's gold that's getting the attention.

This evening, the options are neutral. However, NAAIM didn't change much at all. They are not bearish, but they are not as bullish as I would have expected under the circumstances. There appears to be some degree of trepidation from this smart money. This tells me not to get too complacent even as I remain bullish. The market is due a pullback too. But I don't think that any pullback will kill the rally. This market is too strong at this point for the bears to get anything serious going.

 

[coolhand]

I don't post about it much, but those of you who have been following me for some time might remember that I said there is a battle between 2 powerful forces for control of the financial system (and a whole lot more). From the secular perspective, it is a war between the alliance (multi-national Christian leaders and warriors) and the global cabal (in all of its forms). Biblically, this a war between our Lord Jesus Christ and Satan and his fallen angels. The financial system that we have all grown up in is the old Babylonian system, which has been around for thousands of years. That system is designed to enslave us (as well as whole countries). It is now under extreme attack. Watch crypto and gold. Both are breaking out. The bonds of our financial enslavement are being broken. The darkness is slowly being lifted from the people of the world. Be prepared for a lot of truth to be released in the months and years ahead. If you don't understand what is happening now, you will eventually.

We are witnessing biblical history. Be prepared. Get to know our King! I highly recommend walking through the bible with Dr. Chuck Missler. There are others, but I chose him as my primary teacher. He is one of the foremost authorities on bible scripture. You will be shocked at what the bible has to say about the days we are now living in. It is a fascinating journey, but also one that has serious consequences if not taken seriously.

On the secular side, in the past I have recommended reading "The Creature From Jekyll Island", which is an in-depth look at our Federal Banking system. It will walk you through thousands of years of monetary history to the present. It will dovetail the biblical record.

 

[tom4jean]

Hmm... as a Christian that believes we're in the lastdays, I don't see crypto or gold as leading us out of darkness but rather into it, by putting us under a single monitary system leading to the antichrist...

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

 

[coolhand]

Hmm... as a Christian that believes we're in the lastdays, I don't see crypto or gold as leading us out of darkness but rather into it, by putting us under a single monitary system leading to the antichrist...

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

There are those that see it that way. I talk to folks who do believe that. I don't know exactly how it all plays out, but there are Christians who also see it from my perspective. Mark Taylor, who some say is modern day prophet and who has a lot of high level Christian leader support has stated that the monetary system will be taken back. In any event, a case can be made both ways. However, God will use Satan's tools against him. I see it as a back and forth battle for our souls with God ultimately winning.

 

[nnuut]

One World Monitory System = One World Government. Then we will all eat Soylent Green!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Well we could be in the "last days" but the Bible also says no one knows the the time or day of God's coming. Now, maybe we are in the last days, but there is no telling how long that will be...could be another few millennia... Could be an hour from now. So, I think it is best to keep it in mind, but not let it spoil your day!

As for currency and financial systems, I like it to be diverse as possible. A single way of buying or bartering for your sustenance is not a "good" thing.

Kinda makes me think that it is not good if you are forced to take on only one way to buy that is not fluid and free; or in other words, controlled by others. This would include all non-gold or valueless (paper, plastic, virtual) systems such as debit or credit cards, bank accounts under central or global banking system control, stocks under SEC control or regulation, or crypto only, which Governments or large corporations will eventually try to control (controlling access and use) and which require computers, networks and electricity to operate plus allowed access. Ex. Facebook's Libra and PayPal. Isn't Paypal already limiting which businesses can use it IF they don't agree with PayPals's politics. Seems we are headed down a very slippery slope!

Best Wishes to Everyone on your Investments!!!!! :smile:*

PS. If electric grid goes down for a time, what do you have to eat, drink, keep warm or cool, or barter with? And if someone comes to take your powder, what do you have to keep yourself and family safe? There will be no police or 911 to call on. Just something to think about. Best to stay very diversified and well-equipt.

 

[nnuut]

All I can say is "DON'T let it happen"!

 

[coolhand]

Friday saw the market give something back. It was due, but volume was elevated. Gold continues to rally as well.




Both charts still look fine, but now that the S&P hit its high last week, can we see more give back than the token dip on Friday? I suspect the market may not be done with the downside.

My indicators still look bullish, but after such a fast rally the market may need time to digest those gains.

Cumulative breadth dipped, but remains bullish. My intermediate term system remains bullish and maybe a bit toppy on some of the indicators that derive its signals.

The OEX is neutral and the CBOE is bearish. NAAIM is neutral, but that is reason for some caution.

This market may be in the beginning stages of a transition. I do not know exactly what that means, but any transition will very likely take months to play out. Of course, that's my read at this moment in time, which is subject to change as the market moves forward.

I am neutral heading into the new week, but I don't think any upside will be easy in the short term. I don't like the neutral NAAIM reading, but don't take that as bearish, because they aren't. It's just that they are not overly bullish either. They see something just like I do and they are probably not willing to take big risk on either side of the trade until the market comes more into focus.

 

[coolhand]

The week started off with a win for the bears. No surprise though.




The S&P 500 didn't fall much, but the DWCPF closed all the way back down to its 50 dma.

The options are neutral this evening. Breadth is falling, but remains bullish as does the A/D Line.

I remain neutral.

 

[nasa1974]

Took a bath in the "S" fund today. Let's hope it moves up even a little by the end of the week. Don't want to lose all the monthly gains. Got hurt bad in May and sure don't want to see this month go down the drain.

 

[nnuut]

Took a bath in the "S" fund today. Let's hope it moves up even a little by the end of the week. Don't want to lose all the monthly gains. Got hurt bad in May and sure don't want to see this month go down the drain.

Nailed me too, I'm out!

 

[coolhand]

Now, things are getting more interesting.




The S&P 500 fared well on Monday, but got clobbered on Tuesday. Price on the DWCPF continued to plunge. Both charts show price closing near their lows of the day. Of note, the dollar is getting hammered the past few days, but it bounced today.

The options are neutral again.

My intermediate term system is now under attack, but remains positive. Cumulative breadth is still positive, but also under attack. Another hit like today and breadth will go negative.

It was a tell of sorts that NAAIM wasn't embracing the rally. But the bears among them weren't betting much either. Had they been shorting more I would have been in the bearish camp for this week, but because they weren't I went neutral.

Closing at the lows of the day isn't bullish. And given my intermediate term system hasn't turned yet, that tells me there is more room for downside action, though it doesn't have to happen without an occasional bounce.

Caution is warranted for now. Have some dry powder on standby if you can.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls tried to bounce the market today, but the sellers unloaded on strength.




Neither chart is in trouble technically. The rally was steep and that lends itself to profit taking at some point. With NAAIM mostly neutral, I don't anticipate a ton of selling from here, though the DWCPF could test its 200 dma and the S&P 500 its 50 dma.

My intermediate term system is still positive, but deteriorating. Breadth remains positive too, but could flip on another plunge.

The OEX is bearish this evening and the CBOE is modestly bullish.

I don't think the selling is done yet. The market may need to do more technical damage before it turns back up again. NAAIM reports in the morning.

 

[coolhand]

We got a bounce. Is there more?

I can't seem to upload charts this evening, so I'm just going to provide the analysis.

The DWCPF rallied much more so then the S&P 500 today. It retraced about half its losses. That is certainly a positive sign for the bulls.

Cumulative breadth turned up smartly and remains positive.

Looking at sentiment, the options look neutral overall as we head into Friday. NAAIM saw the bears among them take short positions, while the bulls actually increased their long positions. The reading is neutral overall. My sense is that since both side are placing bets, we have more volatility heading our way. Chances are, neither side gets full control so that may limit both the upside and downside at this time. It's still a bull market, however, so any volatility is likely to eventually resolve higher.

 

[coolhand]

As I mentioned a few trading days ago, NAAIM was neutral, which suggested sideways action. Last week saw the TSP stock funds close mixed, with the C fund down and the S and I funds up. This is consistent with the NAAIM reading.

Friday's action saw some degree of volatility as the bulls and bears continued their push to control price. That is not likely to change in the short term.




The past 2 trading days has seen price on the DWCPF retrace the bulk of its losses. The S&P 500 has also retraced losses. Both charts show price above the 50 dma (as well as the 200 dma). Cumulative breadth and the A/D Line have gotten particularly bullish the past 2 trading days.

My intermediate term system remains positive.

Sentiment shows the OEX neutral, while the CBOE is bearish. TSP Talk has been overly bullish the past 2 weeks, but that bullishness was tempered a bit this week. NAAIM is neutral and suggests continued volatile market action.

Aside from the up/down nature of trading, the market remains a bull. Price is very likely going to hit fresh highs sooner or later. This week looks neutral to me.

 

[coolhand]

I'm neutral heading into the week, but futures this Monday morning are pointing to a blast-off open. Even NAAIM was not evenly positioned, but I may be getting ahead of myself as we don't know what kind of volatility we might see today (if any). I'm pretty sure the news is driving the action. And this kind of news (geo-political) is not as discernable to insiders (like NAAIM) as central bank driven news. This could get interesting if the market takes out the highs today or soon after.

 

[coolhand]

We got another big open to start the new week and while the market closed well off its highs of the day, it closed with solid gains nonetheless.




Boom! The S&P 500 pushed past its previous highs. Price on the DWCPF is knocking on the door of resistance.

Looking at my intermediate term system, along with cumulative breadth, I get the sense the upside is not over.

The options are neutral this evening.

It is certainly looking like the rally may have legs, but I don't expect it to go straight up. Patience has been rewarding for long bulls. I am looking for a positive week now.