coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Still no serious moves on the charts below.




However, the DWCPF is retesting support. The S&P 500 largely held its position.

I note that bonds are getting hit the past month or so. Are they telling us something? At this point, I won't read too much into it, but it should be watched.

Breadth is back neutral. The options are neutral. TRIN closed at a very low level on Wednesday, which is bearish for Thursday for that exchange.

Things look dicey to me now, but this market does a really good job of keeping up bullish appearances. Certainly, price is fine as the index charts still look bullish. Even when I want to be bearish, I can't. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

 

[coolhand]

Boom! The S&P 500 powers its way to a fresh high. Just when things were looking a bit iffy.




On the other hand, the DWCPF still hasn't retraced its losses from Monday. But, it's still not far from its high either.

The options are neutral this evening. NAAIM came in a bit less bullish, but bullish just the same. Breadth flipped positive again, but not in dramatic fashion given the rally.

So, the beat continues. Or should I say the bear beat down. Long is still the way to be.

 

[coolhand]

I can't seem to upload charts this evening, so it looks like be limited to narrative.

It was a mixed week last week, with the C fund up moderately, while the S fund was down moderately. The I fund soared by almost 3%.

Heading into the new week, the options are neutral. NAAIM is bullish. TSP Talk remains very bullish. Breadth is bullish, but tracking sideways.

Overall, the indicators remain mixed, but we know that this bull market has been bullet proof for quite some time. If NAAIM is bullish, and they are, being long is the best play.

 

[tsptalk]

I can't seem to upload charts this evening

I had a problem posting an image using Chrome today, but it worked with Firefox. Not sure why, but just an FYI.

 

[coolhand]

I had a problem posting an image using Chrome today, but it worked with Firefox. Not sure why, but just an FYI.

I was and still am using Firefox. I tried 3x and they wouldn't upload. The problem still exists this morning.

 

[coolhand]

I'm still unable to upload files this evening.

The market started out the week on the downside. The S&P 500 continues to hold up very well and remains in spitting distance of new highs. Momentum has turned down a bit. The DWCPF is testing support again. Price is not far above its rising 50 dma. The chart still looks darn bullish overall, however.

The options are a bit bearish this evening, but not enough for any concern. Breadth remains in a sideways track and is neutral.

Nothing has changed. It still appears that long is the way to go.

 

[coolhand]

It was choppy action today with a mixed close.

The options are bearish this evening. Breadth is negative, but still tracking sideways. Technical indicators look flat overall.

I am looking for selling tomorrow, given the options, but I'm still not looking for much. The bear has nothing on the bull to this point.

 

[hotwings]

CH,

Thanks always for your analysis of the markets. Its much appreciated by those of us that like to monitor market conditions from both a technical and fundamental perspective. It’s good to see posts like these in the forum’s “Latest Posts” list vice some the other stuff being posted there. Have a plate of virtual Hot Wings on me. Cheers!

 

[coolhand]

I was looking lower for Wednesday and while it was mixed for a good portion of the trading day, the final hour brought out the bears and price fell to its lows of the day into the close.

The rate hike may have been a factor as the news was sold.

For Thursday, the OEX P/C is very bearish, while the CBOE is neutral. My intermediate term system is near sell territory. Price on the S fund closed under its 50 dma as well as horizontal support. The S&P 500 remains in better shape with limited technical damage. While the selling hammered small caps, the DWCPF isn't exactly falling apart just yet. It's just under pressure.

Breadth flipped negative on Wednesday's action.

For Thursday, I think we see more selling pressure, but the technical indicators suggest a bottom may be near as more of them are looking negative. Keep in mind that eventually this thing will fall apart, but predicting that event is a lesson in frustration. I marvel at how long the bull market has been sustained to this point.

 

[coolhand]

I thought we might see some carry over selling from Wednesday, especially given the bearish OEX reading, but instead the market rallied early on. However, much of the advance was retraced in the afternoon.

This evening, the options are neutral. NAAIM did not change much and remains bullish. Breadth is neutral, but can flip negative again easily.

So, not much has really changed. Selling pressure remains limited. The bull market remains intact.

 

[coolhand]

Last week, I was on vacation and posting from my laptop, which for whatever reason would not let me upload charts. Now, I'm back home on my regular computer and had no trouble trouble with the charts.

All 3 TSP stock funds took moderate losses last week.




Price on the S&P 500 looks like it's just taking a pause prior to yet another up-leg. Of course, I don't know that for certain, but that's been the trend. Price on the DWCPF is fighting to retake its 50 dma. Momentum is still falling. It's still not a bearish chart, longer term.

Our TSP Talk sentiment survey remains at a very bullish level. NAAIM is bullish too. The options look a bit bearish for Monday, but I'd not bet on much selling.

Breadth is positive, but still tracking sideways. My intermediate term system is a hair from going negative.

My read for next week is that the market may find a way to turn back up. The Supreme Court proceedings could shake things up, but someone wants this market higher. Can political fallout cause enough turmoil to force a sell-off? It's certainly possible, but the bulls probably want someone to prove it to them.

Have some popcorn at the ready. It could be an interesting week.

 

[coolhand]

It was an interesting trading day to start the week as stocks were mixed on the day. Small caps continue to drag the S fund down (it closed moderately lower), while the S&P 500 actually came close to testing its previous high and closed for a gain.




Big difference in the daily action between the two charts today. It's not bullish when small caps are under-performing. Price on the DWCPF closed well under the 50 dma, so the technical damage is starting to build on this chart.

The options are neutral this evening. Breadth flipped negative today, but is not falling apart. My intermediate term system remains positive, but TRIN and TRINQ closed on the low side, which suggests weakness for Tuesday.

 

[coolhand]

We'll, Tuesday was very similar to Monday in that the S&P 500 held up pretty well once again, but the DWCPF probed fresh lows. I suggested that we would probably see weakness again on Tuesday, which for the most part we did.




It's a tale of 2 charts. Are small caps the canary in the coalmine? I don't know the answer to that, but as I said yesterday, it isn't bullish for the market overall.

The options are leaning a bit bullish this evening and that suggests to me a a bounce may be on tap. Are new highs in store for the S&P 500 given it's not far from them? How bullish can we be if we get that new high if much of the rest of the market isn't in synch? How old is the bull market? It's on the old side for sure.

Just some questions to ponder when evaluating risk.

My intermediate term system remains positive, but portions of the system are getting slammed. Breadth is negative and bearish.

I would not be a comfortable bull right now, but I also can't predict a major sell-off with accuracy. I can only tell you what I see and frame some degree of a perspective. October does have a history of some big sell-offs if that's of any value. The bullish 6 months of the year doesn't begin until Nov, so we could be due for a bout of serious selling if seasonality comes into play. That's a big "if", however.

 

[coolhand]

Let me add to my previous post that while I suspect we may get a bounce on Wednesday, this market is generally showing weakness. It is not showing strength despite the S&P 500 being near its highs. It has to be across the market as a whole and with breadth deteriorating, things are getting dicey. Especially as the political theater over the SC nomination process plays out. Is not a trivial issue. It some ways, it's for all the marbles. This sounds bearish, and it might be, but we can never be sure how the market may react to a major news story.

Did you get your popcorn yet? It's almost showtime.

 

[coolhand]

As expected, we bounced today. As has been somewhat typical of late, the market could not hold on to a good portion of its gains.




The DWCPF retraced some of its previous losses, but we can see from the chart it's still a far cry from full recovery. The S&P 500 tested its previous high and was rejected. Still, it remains in spitting distance of making another attempt.

The OEX closed at a very high level today, which is bearish, but it may be too high to take seriously. The CBOE is on the neutral side.

Breadth did not improve and remains negative.

At this point, the market is likely waiting for the SC nomination process to play out before any big moves might occur. I tend to view it as bearish, but I've been around long enough to know that the market doesn't care what I think. We can certainly point to the bearish activity of small caps and negative breadth as justification to be bearish, but that also isn't a lock on the short-term future for the market. Longer term, I remain bearish.

Until the SC vote takes place, this market may chop around. It will be interesting to see how the high OEX reading plays into Thursday's action.

 

[coolhand]

Obviously, the bearish OEX on Wednesday was indeed bearish and the market plunged. Remember, breadth is deteriorating. That's hard for the market to overcome.




The S&P 500 fell hard, but actually closed well off its lows. The DWCPF, not so much. Momentum is falling. Breadth is plunging.

The OEX is neutral this evening. The CBOE is bullish. Another bounce on tap?

TRIN is at a very low level, which is bearish. TRINQ is on the neutral side.

It's a somewhat mixed picture for tomorrow, but the market appears to be in trouble, so even if we bounce, a low may not be in. And there is a remote(?) possibility that things may fall apart in the days or weeks ahead. It's a just a possibility at this point as it may not happen for some months yet, but I am convinced it will happen eventually.

 

[coolhand]

Friday's action may be starting to get the bull's attention. Then again, given the TSP Talk and NAAIM sentiment remain very bullish, maybe not.




Hmmm, when the market is obviously in trouble and sentiment remains bullish, that's often a prescription for more pain.

Momentum is falling hard. Breadth is falling hard. The S&P 500 tested its 50 dma and bounced on Friday, which is good, but will it hold? The DWCPF didn't hold and has been plunging for several days since breaking the same key average. The 200 dma beckons on that chart. I do note that price closed well off its lows, but the index was still down hard. RSI is now oversold on that chart. TRINQ closed very high on Friday, which is bullish for Monday. The OEX is neutral, but the CBOE closed very high, which is bullish. However, the CBOE, which should be viewed as a contrarian indicator, has often been in synch with the market the past year or two, so it may be bearish under the circumstance.

So, we have some significant technical damage; especially with the DWCPF. Bonds are going crazy too. Sentiment is not showing fear (the ones I watch, anyway). This is not a bullish picture. But some key averages may still provide support, so there's some hope for the bulls.

The geopolitical sphere is supercharged right now and I am pretty darn sure we're going to be seeing some significant events over the weeks ahead. Is that why the market is selling off? I would not doubt it. And it may be worse (maybe a lot worse), but I am not predicting it. Just pointing out that it could happen. The market is due a major correction and it's still early October.

 

[coolhand]

We got a rally today, but it came from much lower.




Price on the S&P 500 probed under the 50 dma again, but managed to close above it. Price on the DWCPF tested its 200 dma and bounced. Interestingly, the DWCPF closed well off its lows on Friday and still gapped lower on Monday.

The options are neutral this evening. My intermediate term system remains positive by 1 signal. TRIN closed low, which is bearish for Tuesday. Breadth went sideways and remains bearish for the moment.

Things remain dicey for the bulls. Both charts show price testing key averages. Will they hold? I'm neutral for Tuesday.

 

[coolhand]

We got a mixed, choppy day on Tuesday. Is the market taking a breather? Is the selling subsiding?




Price on the S&P 500 is sitting pretty much right at its 50 dma. Price on the DWCPF closed even lower, but remains above the 200 dma. Momentum has not turned up yet. Breadth dipped a bit more and remains bearish.

The options are neutral this evening.

The market looks like it may be bottoming. In a normal market, I'd be more inclined to look for a rally soon and maybe we'll get just that, but I don't view this market as normal. I'd not be making big bets either way at this point. I remain neutral heading into Wednesday.

 

[coolhand]

The levee broke today. Is the dam next? The market started the session weak and never looked back as price probed lower all the way into the close.




Volume was elevated. The 50 dma on the S&P 500 was crushed. The 200 dma on the DWCPF was annihilated. It doesn't look good for the bulls, but the 200 dma has not been broken on the S&P 500. The action suggests it just may get tested. Futures are already red; though not by a lot.

The OEX is neutral. The CBOE is bullish (from a contrarian perspective). Breadth is falling hard. Breadth has not often fallen as hard as it is right now. More to come?

I've been warning for a few months (on and off) that this market is going to collapse at some point, but I could not predict with any precision when it might happen. It may be in progress now, though I am sure there are those out there that will say a low should be in or very close. That's possible, but I am not optimistic.