coolhand's Account Talk

[1965Vintage]

I am sure glad I listened to your warnings awhile back and got back in the G fund. You saved me a lot of money! I really appreciate your post and look forward to them every day.
It seems the small caps were the canary in the coal mine after all! :bigok:

 

[tom4jean]

The levee broke today. Is the dam next? The market started the session weak and never looked back as price probed lower all the way into the close.

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Volume was elevated. The 50 dma on the S&P 500 was crushed. The 200 dma on the DWCPF was annihilated. It doesn't look good for the bulls, but the 200 dma has not been broken on the S&P 500. The action suggests it just may get tested. Futures are already red; though not by a lot.

The OEX is neutral. The CBOE is bullish (from a contrarian perspective). Breadth is falling hard. Breadth has not often fallen as hard as it is right now. More to come?

I've been warning for a few months (on and off) that this market is going to collapse at some point, but I could not predict with any precision when it might happen. It may be in progress now, though I am sure there are those out there that will say a low should be in or very close. That's possible, but I am not optimistic.

I know your a Christian so I thought I'd pass this along. Back in 2008 the Lord (Holy Spirit) impressed on me to take my money out of the market because he was going to judge America, Weeks later it dropped. The Lord told me that again on 9/27/18 and I took it out. Not sure where it's going but i'm staying out for a while. I know a lot of people will scoff and point to other things, but I know what I heard. From some comments I'm reading this took a lot of people by surprise and they have no explanation except the rising bond yields and interest rates, but they also say it doesn't account for it completely.

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[hotwings]

Dang, what a nasty day. I think Mr. Market has been looking for an excuse to correct. I have a hard time buying that it was caused by Powell’s comments last week. At any rate, I’m retired and have been through many of these corrections before so I’ll keep my allocation of 50% in CSI and 50% in G and will remain that way for the long term. Thanks CH for your continued market analysis.

 

[coolhand]

I know your a Christian so I thought I'd pass this along. Back in 2008 the Lord (Holy Spirit) impressed on me to take my money out of the market because he was going to judge America, Weeks later it dropped. The Lord told me that again on 9/27/18 and I took it out. Not sure where it's going but i'm staying out for a while. I know a lot of people will scoff and point to other things, but I know what I heard. From some comments I'm reading this took a lot of people by surprise and they have no explanation except the rising bond yields and interest rates, but they also say it doesn't account for it completely.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

Your personal experience is real and I would listen to that voice over any chart. Since being born again, my discernment has dramatically increased. I pray every day and ask the Holy Spirit to light my path and he has. :smile:

 

[coolhand]

For those who understand...D5 in progress! :smile:

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

For those who understand...D5 in progress!

Will Google that, must be a wave count

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[coolhand]

Will Google that, must be a wave count

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It is not a technical indicator. It is actually a reference to the severity of an avalanche. D5 is the most destructive type.

What does that have to do with the stock market?

I asked the original question to see if anyone responded in the affirmative. No one did. I was just curious.

Some folks are wondering why the stock market is selling off. There is a reason, but not one that most would believe. You have to be plugged into the alternative media to have a chance of understanding it. Some months ago I posted a link to one of those alternative media outlets and then left it up to anyone reading my posts to pursue it on their own. You have to understand the geopolitical backdrop to make sense of the selling pressure. I won't discuss it on the board or else Tom will get hit with complaints about coolhand breaking the rules about politics.

As the D5 progresses, things are expected to get worse and probably scary. But in reality what is coming will benefit us all in the long run. We'll all be much better off.

Those that have been around for a long time on this board may remember a poster by the name of teknobucks. He and I became friends here on TSP Talk and it just so happened that we lived in the same state and eventually met on several occasions. Teknobucks impressed a lot of people back then with his TSP moves and had a large following. But he was plugged into things that most are not. He shared a lot of info with me over the years and it gave me a much better understanding of how things really work in the financial sphere. Stuff you won't learn in school. That "stuff" comes in handy at times. This is one of them.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi CH, Does this have anything to do with cryptos, central banks, monetary issues dealing with high debt levels, etc??? I recall you talked about that not too long ago, so I looked back and found that discussion around posts 6669 to 6673 May 22 or so. I have thought about this but other than gold I'm not sure where we can safely put money. Looks like cryptos are still under attack. I do not recall your mentioning D5 previously.

I do believe interest rate increases could really mess us up if done too quickly due to Much higher level of cash Govt would be required to raise to pay the interest on debt. In any case, not trying to get too political but having to raise more money to pay interest means higher taxes that will greatly affect our economy and market and standard of living.... when this bubble hits it's gonna be huge and I don't hear anyone talking about spending less and paying off the Govt's HUGE credit card balance (some on the books and some off books). Plus there is a unfunded pension bubble brewing as well with States and Private companies...plus college borrowing.... eeekkkkk… ok...now that I scared myself, I think I will go relax, eat dinner and fogettabout-it !

Thanks for your posts and great analysis! Your Awesome as usual!!!! :smile:

 

[coolhand]

Hi CH, Does this have anything to do with cryptos, central banks, monetary issues dealing with high debt levels, etc??? I recall you talked about that not too long ago, so I looked back and found that discussion around posts 6669 to 6673 May 22 or so. I have thought about this but other than gold I'm not sure where we can safely put money. Looks like cryptos are still under attack. I do not recall your mentioning D5 previously. Thanks! :smile:

Hi DA. It has to do with a lot of things financial and political. It spans many categories. Corruption is everywhere. Cryptos may be an alternative system for commerce. I cannot confirm this, but I own a fair amount of Bitcoin and a few others. Cryptos are under attack by the CBs. That won't last forever. Only until their stranglehold on the monetary system is broken. Same with precious metals. That's probably the best place to be for financial safety. As a side note, some online precious metals dealers will take crypto in exchange for precious metals. Check it out: https://www.jmbullion.com/2018-american-silver-eagle/

What do they know that many of us don't?

It is not my intent to alarm anyone. But I have been learning about banking and politics (as well as scripture) for many years now. I have no agenda other than to try and spread truth. But it's up to every individual to do their own research.

D5 was simply a descriptive phrase from a very high level source that knows what is happening at the top of the food chain as a hidden war plays out. Check out this link:

https://www.douknowq.com/

D5 is specifically cited in this link:

https://www.douknowq.com/134418/Q-Abbreviations.htm

Don't dismiss this site lightly. It may be alien to those that are new to it, but you'll learn a lot here.

 

[coolhand]

A lot has changed in just 2 days. Of course, the DWCPF has been falling hard longer than that (not to mention the bond rout and foreign indexes, etc.). But now that large caps are playing catch up, it's getting real.




Not only did the S&P 500 test its 200 dma, it blew well past it. It did manage to close off its lows of the day, for what that's worth. It's oversold too. Is that a good reason for buying? What's the risk? There are times when blindly following indicators can get one in trouble. Think 2008, but there's others.

Do I need to point out how ugly the DWCPF is at this point?

Remember how I've pointed out many times to just follow NAAIM since they were smart money. And as of last week they were bullish. They'd been bullish seemingly forever and it's paid off if you were long.

This week, they got bearish in a hurry. Again, this is smart money. The options have not yet reported.

Breadth continues to plunge, which is a big red flag. My intermediate term system looks bad, but one signal continues to keep it positive. See why I don't rely on it as a major indicator? It's not the system, it's the market. When things weren't so heavily manipulated, it actually worked much better.

Risk is high. As I said a few days ago, in a normal market, I'd be more inclined to look for a rally soon and maybe we'll still get that (not likely to hold), but I don't view this market as normal. It is under attack. I consider it unprecedented attack. Best to get defensive on some level at this point. This could very well be a falling knife. And the market is much, much higher than in 2008.

 

[shitepoke]

CH, what is the next support level if any ??

 

[coolhand]

CH, what is the next support level if any ??

The main ones have already been broken. We could look at longer term charts for a better answer, but when the selling happens this fast, there's something else at play. That something may not care about support levels. With volatility at much higher levels now, the action could get crazy up and down. Futures are climbing this evening. Better to sell strength (not necessarily 100% cash, though that's up to each individual) than look for support right now. Just my opinion. Any strength may be a dead cat bounce.

Precious metals are a very good hedge to a meltdown. If a global reset is in progress (could still take weeks to months), and I believe it is, many will seek shelter in tangible assets. Keep in mind, our monetary system uses fiat currency. Money made out of thin air. It has no intrinsic value. If currency begins to lose value, do you want to hold it? Think inflation, which is really just a hidden tax on your wealth.

The good news is that the reset is supposed to rebaseline our entire system. Many debts are likely going to be wiped away (at least unsecured debt). Credit cards, student loans, etc. These kind of debts may disappear. Yes, I'm saying we might not have to pay them back in this scenario. That's part of what a global reset does. It makes us whole again.

This is a really a deep subject and there is no shortage of questions that may arise out of this. Check out the X22 report. That's a good starting point to begin to learn what's going on.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls had their worst week is some time last week. All 3 TSP stock funds were down between 3-5%. Most of that carnage came Wednesday and Thursday. Friday saw some extreme volatility as prices fell much lower by early afternoon, but buyers stepped in and drove price higher for decent gains on the day. It was the kind of action that you would typically want to see when looking for a bottom. The question is, is this market typical? In my opinion, no. You will see strong opinions from both bulls and bears at this point as both camps try to justify their perceptions of where things go from here.




We can see that the S&P 500 recaptured its 200 dma. The long tail is bullish. Momentum may have bottomed. RSI is still oversold. We could certainly turn back up from here if this is a "V" bottom.

So, what else can we see from the 2 charts above. Price on the DWCPF is still well away from its 200 dma. It is in a much more precarious condition than the S&P 500. When small caps are struggling, it isn't generally bullish for the market, so I am careful not to put too much weight on the S&P 500. The large caps are considered safe havens in times of market uncertainty.

TRINQ closed at a very low level on Friday, which is bearish for the Nazdaq on Monday. Breadth went mainly sideways on Friday, so it remains bearish for now. The options are on the neutral side. NAAIM is bearish.

I don't mention precious metals in my market commentary much, but it should at least be noted that gold is trying to break to the upside. Precious metals have been a heavily manipulated market for decades so we'll see a battle over price control in this arena too. I'm watching it carefully. Silver is also something to watch.

I remain bearish overall, but we could see price try to continue recovering in the short term. I have outlined bullish and bearish aspects of the market above, but I tend to think the bears may be in the beginning stages of getting the upper hand. We'll just have to see how it plays out from here.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls did not get nearly as much follow through as they would have liked on Monday. As a matter of fact, some indexes retraced a least some of Friday's gains. Small caps were a bright spot in a mixed market.




Price on the S&P 500 is back below its 200 dma. Now, up/down action is generally associated with putting in a bottom. But that is not a given.

Breath ticked a bit higher today, but nothing to write home about. The options look neutral heading into Tuesday.

Overall, not much changed aside from the S&P not holding a key average. More choppy action may be in store for Tuesday.

 

[coolhand]

The indicators weren't telling me much at Monday's close other than to continue being cautious. I thought we'd see more of the same on Tuesday (chop with some volatility), but Tuesday's action was a gap and go kind of day as price shot to the upside and largely biased higher into the close for some pretty decent gains. Given the oversold conditions and stretched technical indicators, its wasn't a huge surprise to see a big short covering rally.




I know the bulls are a happy bunch right now, but this market isn't out of the woods. Price on the S&P 500 did retake its 200 dma, but remains well under its 50 dma. The DWCPF has not yet reclaimed its 200 dma, let alone its 50. However, momentum is turning up. Breadth has turned up (still negative).

The OEX is bullish for Wednesday, while the CBOE is neutral. I'm very interested to see where NAAIM is come Thursday. They saw a spike in bearishness last week. Was it a short term bearish bias? We'll see in a couple of days.

A turn like the market had today could have legs. But we could also head lower to test support at some point even if we rally higher first. We haven't seen much in the way of whipsaws in some time. This could be one of those times...or not. We'll have to watch it play out.

 

[shitepoke]

CH,
yer talkin' watch it play out...so what do you do. Is yer money on the sidelines...You used to say go long. What'er ya doin' now. We all know that its our money...our risk but it sure is nice to watch/read/listen to someone with yer experience/time in the game...I personally went bankrupt last year and cant afford a prime service and i damn well, as most folk around here do, appreciate readin' yer stuff whether we choose to run with it or not so "keep on chooglin" as the Creedance song would say.
EJJ

 

[coolhand]

CH,
yer talkin' watch it play out...so what do you do. Is yer money on the sidelines...You used to say go long. What'er ya doin' now. We all know that its our money...our risk but it sure is nice to watch/read/listen to someone with yer experience/time in the game...I personally went bankrupt last year and cant afford a prime service and i damn well, as most folk around here do, appreciate readin' yer stuff whether we choose to run with it or not so "keep on chooglin" as the Creedance song would say.
EJJ

When I say "watch it play out" it's because I don't have a good feel for where it's going. This is a battle at the top of the food chain for control of this market. And both sides want it to come down, but on their respective terms. As far as I'm concerned, it's not a matter of "if" it comes down, but when and how deep. Central Bank markets are not people markets, they are rigged for the benefit of those at the top. They would rather the rest of us eat dirt. I've been in the G fund most of the year and have no intention of leaving.

I post on this board because I actually care about people like me who have families and just want a decent shot at putting together a financial nest egg. But the game is rigged. Seriously rigged. The President has warned us himself over the past 2 years or so.

I have been saying I'm longer term bearish for a little while now, but I post short term stuff when I think there's still time for those that like to gamble. I don't have the stomach for the risk I see in this market, but if my analysis helps others, I'm happy. :smile:

 

[pmaloney]

Thank you for your posts. They are greatly appreciated! :smile:

 

[coolhand]

I mentioned yesterday that whipsaws may be an issue now that volatility has picked up and today's action was proof of that as price fell rather hard only to recover as the trading day advanced. By the close, the indexes were relatively flat. At face value, it's bullish action.




Not much change in the charts today. The options are on the bearish side this evening. Breadth ticked lower just a bit and still remains negative.

I think the bulls have the advantage in the short term, but the bearish options suggest weakness on Thursday. Price is well above its lows from last week, but can price continue to recover? It's still got a long way to go to get back to its October high.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. I'm especially interested in seeing how they are positioned this week and into next.

 

[coolhand]

On Wednesday, I said the options were looking bearish and that we might be in for another bout of selling. That was exactly what we got.




Price on the S&P 500 closed right at its 200 dma, which so far is a successful test of support. But price on the DWCPF has not done the same. I also note that some of the markets around the globe are showing signs of stress. The Shanghai is one of them. These markets are all tied together to some extent, so we could be in the beginning stages of a domino effect. Yes, you can argue a bullish case too. But I am taking into consideration more than just technical indicators, which I don't do often. Central Bank markets are not designed to go on and on to the upside. And this bull market is certainly old enough to give way to a bear. We aren't there yet, but I think the scenario is more plausible than many might think.

The OEX is neutral this evening. The CBOE is leaning bullish. NAAIM got less bearish, but did not get overly bulled up either. I think many of them saw a decline coming, got short, and took profits. Now, they may be taking a wait and see approach by straddling the market.

Breadth fell and remains negative.

Overall, this market just doesn't look healthy at all. It could still recover, but there is a lot of headwinds fighting the bull now, not the least of which is age. If you're listening to the rhetoric by the central banks and the administration for the past few weeks, they appear to be getting ready to place blame for a market collapse. Just sayin'.

For Friday, the market may try to bounce once more from this latest bout of selling pressure. With elections on the horizon, anything can happen. Markets can be used to drive political agendas. I remain bearish.