coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

The indicators were flashing a sell at the close on Tuesday and sure enough Wednesday saw a good poke to the downside.




So, the charts simply show a pullback on average volume at best. It could be a bull flag at this point. We'll have to see.

TRIN looks bullish for Thursday, but TRINQ is only neutral. Not much help there. The OEX is decidedly bearish for Thursday, however. The CBOE is neutral. NAAIM will report tomorrow. They've been reigning in their bullishness the last few weeks, but they only appear to be getting more cautious rather than outright bearish. Breadth is falling, but remains bullish.

We may get some downside follow through on Thursday, but we could bounce as the trading day progresses. That's my expectation.

 

[coolhand]

It didn't take long for the bulls to retake control of price. In fact, the S&P 500 hit a fresh high today.




There isn't much not to like about these charts if you're a bull.

The OEX is bearish again as we head into Friday's action. NAAIM came in more bullish. That pretty much tells me that the bulls don't have a lot to fear for the time being. TRINQ closed at a low level, which could be bearish for the Naz. TRIN was neutral. My intermediate term system is one signal away from flipping positive again. Breadth remains bullish.

I don't see any reason to take anything off the table, do you?

 

[coolhand]

Last week, the bulls maintained control of the market. All 3 TSP stock funds ended the week higher. However, the C fund was up much more than either the S or I funds. I'll take it at face value for now, but small caps did not lead last week.




Looking at the DWCPF, you can see that price appears to have put in a double top, which can be bearish. But not much else about this chart is bearish, and since the S&P 500 is still hitting fresh highs my expectation is that price will break to the upside on the DWCPF.

My intermediate term system remains very close to flipping positive. Breadth remains positive.

The options look a bit bullish for Monday. NAAIM is bullish for next week. TSP Talk saw a bullish spike in the latest survey and that's bearish (historically), but in the context of the other signals I think it may be simply neutral.

I'm looking higher for next week.

 

[coolhand]

Quick update this evening. The market closed mixed. I note that small caps were particularly weak again, though not enough to be concerned (so far). Breadth remains positive, but under attack. My intermediate term remains positive and is also under attack. The OEX is neutral, while the CBOE is bullish (for Tuesday).

I see no clear indication of direction at the moment, so we may see some choppy trading.

 

[coolhand]

Another fresh all-time high for the S&P 500 was hit today. Boy, it's amazing how an economy firing on all cylinders can just keep pushing prices higher, huh?

It's really not a surprise, however. The indicators are telling us to stay invested.




Breadth remains bullish as does my intermediate term system. The options are neutral for Wednesday.

We can pull back at any time, but I don't think the bears will be able to mount much of an attack. Small caps are still lagging, but still nothing over the top. The bulls remain in control.

 

[tsptalk]

Another fresh all-time high for the S&P 500 was hit today.

Not quite an all-time high... 2875 was hit in January, but getting closer.

 

[coolhand]

Not quite an all-time high... 2875 was hit in January, but getting closer.

2875 may have been hit in January, but I hit 60 in December. Not sure which one is more significant.

 

[Valkyrie]

2875 may have been hit in January, but I hit 60 in December. Not sure which one is more significant.

60 is middle aged, half way to that sudden stop.

 

[coolhand]

No change to my stance. Today's bias to the upside confirms what I've been saying. The bulls have control for now. Breadth and my intermediate term system remain bullish. The options are largely neutral. NAAIM reports Thursday.

 

[coolhand]

The S&P 500 backed off on Thursday, but the DWCPF pushed higher. Upside momentum is struggling.




My intermediate term system is still positive, but the signals are flattening out. The Arms are looking bullish for Friday. The OEX is bearish. NAAIM came in neutral (still bullish overall).

With both charts near their highs, momentum waning, the OEX bearish and my intermediate term system flat, I think some selling may be on tap very soon. Nothing dramatic is expected. Not with NAAIM still bullish overall.

 

[coolhand]

Last week, the market edged higher. Big gains are not as common as they once were it seems.




Price remains near their peak on both charts. the trend remains up. Momentum has flattened overall.

My intermediate term system remains positive, but it is flirting with a negative condition. It would not take much selling to flip it. Breadth is positive, but is tracking sideways for the better part of 2 weeks. NAAIM remains bullish overall. TSP Talk is overly bullish (bearish). The options are neutral to modestly bullish for Monday.

The indicators suggest weakness for next week, but they are not screaming such. Some moderate selling pressure in the short term would help reset the indicators for a possible push higher later in the week.

 

[coolhand]

Not surprisingly, we had another mixed day in the market to start the new week.




Price didn't move all that much. The DWCPF has been tracking largely sideways now for about 2 weeks. The indicators are looking mostly flat too.

My intermediate term system remains near a sell, but not convincingly. In other words, the signals are weakening incrementally and not in a more convincing fashion.

The options look bearish for Tuesday. Breadth remains bullish. We could get some weakness still, but I as I said late last week, it probably won't amount to all that much.

Keep an eye on bonds. They are taking some big hits the past 2 days. The 10-year in particular should be watched. Yes, it's early, but it's possible that it could be an early warning sign. Just something to keep an eye on for now.

 

[coolhand]

Yesterday, the market was mixed again. This time, the S&P 500 hit a fresh high while the DWCPF took a sizable loss. So, recently we've seen bonds showing signs of stress and now small caps may be hinting at short term weakness too. Are we setting up for another upside run, or is something else at play? The DWPCF has not been able to break higher for over a month now.




My intermediate term system is struggling to remain positive for stocks, with just one signal keeping it from flipping. TRIN is bearish for Wednesday. Breadth remains positive, but still tracking sideways.

The OEX is bullish for Wednesday. The CBOE is neutral.

Futures are a bit negative, so the market appears poised for some selling. Still, the chances of any significant downside are low.

 

[coolhand]

I thought we would see some selling this week, though I also said it would not likely amount to much. So far, the S&P 500 is up over 1.5% this week, while the DWCPF is down more than 0.5%. I don't track the I fund closely, but it's up over 1% this week. So it's mixed across the averages, but if you're in large caps, you're enjoying some nice gains.




Another fresh high for the S&P 500 was posted Wednesday. It's overbought now, for what that's worth. The DWCPF remains in a somewhat sideways pattern.

The options are neutral this morning. NAAIM reports around mid-day. My intermediate term system remains under attack with just one signal keeping it in a positive condition. Breadth remains positive, but flat over the past 2 weeks.

It's a mixed picture in some respects, but it's still very much a bull market. The bias remains to the upside.

 

[coolhand]

What kind of a market sees a tech company lose $19B in a day and then seemingly shrugs? :blink:




The S&P 500 saw just a modest pullback on Thursday, which the DWCPF rallied moderately to get a bit closer to the top end of its trading range. Volume was elevated. The charts remain bullish. How long before the DWCPF finally breaks to the upside?

The options look neutral for Friday. NAAIM came in neutral, but still with a decidedly bullish bias. My intermediate term system remains 1 signal away from flipping negative, but the signals improved a bit.

So, not much has changed. The market is really due some selling, but sells are not working well right now. Since NAAIM is still bullish, I'd follow their lead.

 

[coolhand]

Price on the DWCPF was rejected once more near the 1460 area. In fact, price is now sitting on its rising 50 dma. Momentum has turned down.




The S&P 500 also fell, though it held up better than the DWCPF. So, we do have some measure of technical damage, mainly on the DWCPF.

Breadth fell on Friday, but remains within its current trading range. My intermediate term system remains positive, but under attack. The options are bullish for Monday. NAAIM is bullish heading into the new week. TSP Talk remains overly bullish.

I note that the major averages plunged after the close on Friday. Maybe they recover by Monday and maybe they don't. While sentiment is bullish for Monday, Friday's action after the close gives reason to pause. We are due some selling so I would not be surprised if the bulls get ambushed in the new week. Price rejection on the DWCPF supports that view, but I don't have enough solid evidence to bet heavy on that outcome for the new trading week. So, Monday's action could give us a clue.

 

[coolhand]

As I suspected, the bulls got ambushed to start the new week. It wasn't ugly (unless perhaps, you include the Naz), but it was negative for most of the day and the averages didn't close well either as price ended not far from session lows.




Momentum continued its downward tack. The DWCPF closed well under its 50 dma. The S&P 500 remains well above its key averages.

Breadth is near the low of its current trading range. I consider it neutral at this point. The OEX is neutral for Tuesday. The CBOE is bullish.

Did we get any clues for the short term today? It seems as if a downtrend may be starting, but how deep might it go? While the DWCPF broke a key support line, the 200 dma is much lower and that won't be an easy target unless breadth falls apart. Sentiment is too bulled up, but it's been like that most of the time for a long while now, so I don't use it as a key indicator like I once did. I think the market biases lower. I can't get overly excited about a deep dive, however. At least not yet.

 

[coolhand]

After 2 big down days, the market bounced. The S&P 500 still looks just fine, but the DWCPF only got back to its 50 dma. Don't get me wrong, the chart isn't in bad shape, but price is flirting with a key support level after falling below it on Monday. And it would not surprise me if price climbs back over that level.




Momentum is trying to turn back up. Breadth is positive again, from neutral, but still in a range. The OEX is neutral and the CBOE is bullish again.

The market is not making it easy for bulls or bears. I'm still looking lower for the week, but it's very hard to bet against this market.

 

[coolhand]

There wasn't much price change in the S&P 500 or DWCPF today, so I'm not posting charts this evening. For the most part, my indicators have not changed. The DWCPF is still fighting to regain its 50 dma. The OEX remains neutral and the CBOE modestly bullish. NAAIM reports tomorrow. Breadth remains positive, but still tracking sideways. My intermediate term system remains positive, but has been beat up over the last few trading days.

The market seems to be in no man's land. I began the week looking for a lower bias, but the market has remained resilient to downside pressure. I'm neutral on the market for Thursday.

 

[coolhand]

The DWCPF outperformed the S&P 500 today and price on that chart easily jumped well past the 50 dma in the process. The bears continue to be denied.




Interestingly, my intermediate term system flipped negative today despite the positive action. Breadth remains positive, but flat.

The options are decidedly bearish heading into Friday. NAAIM came in a bit less bullish, so they are getting more defensive, but are not bearish by any means.

Based on what I am seeing this evening, I suspect the market is going to be giving back some of its gains on Friday. This bull may not be running to the upside, but it ain't giving up much ground either. Stick to the long side for now.