coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

It was a mixed week for the TSP stock funds last week, with the C fund posting a modest gain, the S fund a moderate gain and the I fund a moderate loss. However, the C and S funds are sporting pretty sizable gains for the month so far.




The S fund is still overbought. The C fund has some room to run before it gets overbought (based on RSI). Both are showing signs of fatigue, but that may not mean a decline is approaching. Based on sentiment and breadth, I don't think we are going to see anything of importance on the downside in the short term.

Breadth remains positive, but its parabolic rise has tempered for the time being.

The options flipped bullish for Monday. NAAIM is bullish, though there may still be some weakness over the next day or two based on their increased bullishness from Thursday's survey. I doubt it will amount to much even if we get some. TSP Talk remains pretty bulled up.

There certainly doesn't seem to be much concern for selling pressure. That's complacency, but that could linger for some time, so we can't rely on that as a surgical indicator.

I'm looking for more sideways to up action next week.

 

[JamesE]

As always, much appreciated

 

[Robo5555]

I second that.

 

[coolhand]

Monday saw some immediate selling pressure, which I suspected we would see, but as I also suspected it didn't last long as those initial losses were largely retraced. While the C and S funds did close negative on the day, the S fund had another gain (and all-time high). Judging by Tuesday's futures, the market is in for another downside shot at the bell. Can the market remain resilient?




Breadth closed higher on Monday and remains quite bullish. My intermediate term system is still positive, but looking somewhat toppy. The options are neutral for today.

Both charts look bullish. Momentum is falling on the S&P 500, but not on the DWCPF. I suspect that the market is going to continue to remain resilient as the bears try to turn it, but trade tariffs could eventually top the market. I cannot predict with accuracy how this plays out, but I am not a long term bull. For the short term, it's best to continue buying dips.

 

[coolhand]

Downside pressure returned on Tuesday, and once more the market staged some degree of a comeback.




The charts above have still not changed enough to take them out of their bullish stance; especially the DWCPF. The EFA is falling apart by contrast.

Breadth moved a bit lower today, but remains positive. The options are neutral again this evening. My intermediate term system is now under attack and could flip negative on continued selling pressure.

I said at the beginning of the week that I was looking for sideways to up action for the week. So far, it's been more negative than anything. That could be a carry over from the NAAIM reading last week. My bigger concern is the tariffs, which are not going to be positives for the market (intentionally). I find it interesting that both gold and silver are under attack again. It's also interesting how the dollar remains strong. Bigger picture, there is a battle going on for monetary control on a global level. This bull market will not last under any circumstance as this battle plays out. I am now neutral short term, but bearish longer term.

 

[blueroadster]

The EFA is falling apart by contrast.

Great...I decided to enter the I Fund today.

 

[coolhand]

We bounced. Now what? Well, the DWCPF hit a fresh all-time high, which is bullish at face value.




Breadth remains bullish. The OEX P/C is bearish for Thursday. My intermediate term system improved today and remains bullish.

NAAIM reports tomorrow.

 

[coolhand]

Thursday's smack down wiped out the DWCPF's weekly gain. All 3 TSP stock funds are now down for the week. But futures point to a rally to start Friday's trading session.




The DWCPF chart still looks bullish to my eye, though RSI fell noticeably hard on Thursday. That leaves room for some trepidation moving forward in the short term. The S&P 500 is not making new highs and momentum has been largely negative since last week. Still, it could very well turn back up and catch the bears by surprise.

My intermediate term system is not far from flipping negative again. Breadth is still positive, but under attack. The options are now neutral. NAAIM got less bullish, but they certainly aren't bearish and that tells me the downside is likely still limited in the short-term.

It's a mixed picture, but the bulls still have the upper hand. I think they can press their advantage for now.

 

[coolhand]

Friday's action began positive, but the bulls struggled to control direction of price. The S&P 500 started out with a bang, but tracked sideways most of the rest of the trading session until the final minutes when the bears pushed price down near the neutral line. The DWCPF started out on the higher side as well, but tracked lower until the close. All 3 TSP stock funds ended lower for the week.




Not much technical damage to the charts yet. Momentum may be rolling over the DWCPF, however. We'll have to watch that.

Breadth was higher on Friday and actually looks okay (bullish). But my intermediate term system is a hair from going negative as 6 out of 7 signals are now on sells. The OEX P/C is bearish for Monday. NAAIM is bullish overall, which tempers any bearish expectations.

I'm looking lower to start the week, but I'm really just looking for more up and down action between the bulls and bears. I continue to believe the bears will eventually win, but that could be days to months out and the averages could hit new highs before then. I wish I could be more precise, but I don't have a crystal ball. Going to a strictly technical perspective, you could make an argument that we are nowhere near the peak. My main concern is that the foundation on which this bull sits is darn weak and getting weaker.

 

[coolhand]

I was looking lower for Monday and we got selling pressure in spades. Beyond that though, I was thinking it would be more up/down action. That may still be the case, but today's action did some technical damage, so we'll have to see.




Momentum fell hard on both charts. Volume was elevated, but not overly so. On the plus side for the bulls, price closed off its lows of the day. Also, the S&P 500 saw its 50 dma hold, but not until it was violated. Price closed right on it, so will it hold?

The options are neutral this evening. My intermediate term system flipped negative. Breadth is close to going negative. TRINQ closed at a very high level, so that's bullish for Tuesday (for the Naz).

So, Tuesday will likely bring a bounce. But how much of a bounce may be a tell for what we can expect over the next few days.

 

[coolhand]

We got the bounce following Monday's deep decline. The highs of the day did not hold, but the averages did close positive. I have the feeling a low is not in, however.




Momentum stopped falling, but it hasn't really turned back up yet. Breadth ticked up, but remains susceptible to going negative on any further selling pressure of any real consequence.

The options show the smart money and dumb money both leaning bullish. That's technically on the neutral side, but could be bullish under the circumstance.

So, while the selling has stopped (for now), I am not so sure a low is in, though it might. A more robust bounce would have made me a bit more bullish. Instead, I'm wondering if we have a bear flag forming.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls tried to stage a comeback on Wednesday, but it didn't hold together. That's not bullish action.




We can see that price has not closed below its 50 dma and the DWCPF is not far from testing its 50 dma. Downside momentum increased. There is more support below; primarily the 200 dma.

The OEX and CBOE are both bearish for Thursday. I am going to read that as bearish overall. Breadth is now negative. My intermediate term system remains negative.

Futures are pointing to a positive open as I write this. We're probably in for a bounce, but financial pressure is intense in many economic areas. I remain bearish longer-term as these pressures continue to build; short-term rally notwithstanding.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls managed to claw back some losses as anticipated on Thursday, but the market isn't out of the woods.




Price on the S&P 500 closed right at its 50 dma. The DWCPF tested its 50 dma and it held (so far). Another bear flag forming? Momentum is still falling on the DWCPF, but bounced on the S&P.

The options are leaning bullish for Friday. NAAIM got a bit less bullish, but still bullish overall nonetheless. They are not shorting yet, so that's a plus for the bulls.

Breadth rose, but I'd say it's neutral at this point.

We'll probably get some upside follow through on Friday, but it's very possible a bottom is not yet in. I am neutral for Friday.

 

[coolhand]

The bullish options on Friday rightly predicted upside follow through on the major averages, but price dove in the last of hour of trading and pretty wiped out all of the intraday gains on the C and S funds. The end-of-day action is bearish for Monday. All 3 TSP stock funds were down for the week.




That 50 dma is the battleground on both charts right now. The 200 dma is becoming a more likely target given the action.

The OEX and CBOE are both bearish for Monday. That's bearish in the current market context. Breadth is positive, still under attack. My intermediate term system remains negative.

I have to say that I am bearish for next week. I don't like the market action right now. Global economic indicators are also bearish (to include some of our domestic ones). A rotting foundation under this market is eventually going to catch up with this bull.

July could be the month when the bears get some due.

 

[coolhand]

I was looking lower for Monday and the market did trade in that fashion for a good portion of the day, but price caught a bid toward the end of the trading day and closed for a modest gain.




So far, the bulls are holding on to the 50 dma. Price may start rising again (momentum is turning up). Breadth is positive.

The options are neutral for Tuesday. I suspect that trading may see low volume during the holiday week (it was low on Monday). Under the circumstances, the bulls probably have the advantage this week.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls looked like they were going to have a nice pre-holiday rally Tuesday, but the market couldn't hold on to most of its gains. At the early close, the S&P 500 was hit for a moderate loss, while the DWCPF retained a modest gain. The EFA actually had a sizeable gain.




Price on the S&P 500 closed below its 50 dma. Momentum turned back down. However, volume was very low, so we can't read too much into the action.

TRINQ closed very high on Tuesday, which is bearish for the Naz on Thursday. Breadth is positive and rising quickly again. That's a huge headwind for the bears if it has any legs.

The options look somewhat bullish for Thursday. NAAIM reports in the morning.

There is some very powerful news that may get released very soon. I have no idea how the market reacts to it should it hit the wires, but I am mindful that news could drive this market if it's significant enough. I really do have the feeling that July could get very interesting.

 

[coolhand]

Breadth is back on an almost vertical trajectory again. That's obviously bullish.




Price hit a fresh high on the current up-leg. Momentum is turning up as is strength. Volume is still low, but the bulls will take it.

The options are neutral for Friday. NAAIM came in a bit less bullish again and they have been slowly reigning in their bullishness for a few weeks now. They are still bullish overall, but we could get some weakness very soon on this sentiment. It just isn't likely to last long if we get it. My intermediate term system remains negative, but is improving and could flip positive on further upside action.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls kicked into high gear on Friday as price shot to the upside on lower than average volume.




The indicators are turning up on the charts. Chances are, new highs may be coming in the near future given the longer term trend.



Breadth is soaring higher as you can see on this chart. The longer term trend (since April) has been to the upside. These are all-time highs were looking at. Obviously, someone wants prices higher.

TRIN and TRINQ closed a low levels on Friday, which is bearish for Monday. The options are neutral. NAAIM is neutral to modestly bearish. TSP Talk is neutral with more bears than bulls.

I believe the market is poised to tack on more gains next week.

 

[Robo5555]

As you mentioned CH, high gear....looks like today will be an added plus.

 

[coolhand]

As anticipated, the bulls have taken control of market direction, though the market did close mixed today.




The S&P 500 hit a fresh high, while the DWCPF dipped modestly. Volume remains underwhelming.

Very shortly after the close, futures dropped hard. Tariff talk again? The options are bearish. The ARMS indicator is a bit bearish too. Breadth remains very bullish, but leveled off a bit. I think we have a pullback coming on Wednesday.