coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

The bulls took control of the market last, slicing through upside resistance levels on the way to some pretty nice gains (if you were long).
I did have some sell signals in the latter part of the week, but they didn't produce much selling. Friday's action leveled off the RSI as it wasn't as robust as the previous trading days. Running out of steam?




The S&P 500 isn't looking too bad now. There is some horizontal resistance around 2800, but that would require much more upside to test it. Volume was tepid. This rally in general has been on relatively low volume. Price on the DWCPF tested that upper trend line 2 days in a row and gains were paltry on Friday. That may be a problem. Momentum is still rising on both charts.

Sentiment shows that TSP Talk got all bulled up again. The options went neutral. NAAIM is neutral. TRINQ closed at a high level on Friday, which is bearish for the NAZ on Monday. Breadth hit a fresh all-time high.

So, we have a low-volume rally on good breadth, but the smart money is not overly bullish (or bearish for that matter). The market has gone a long way in a short time and there is every reason to look for some selling soon. However, this market is perverse and could continue to trend higher than many might expect, though I am not saying it will. Fundamentals are not good and there are signs that this bull market is in trouble. A Fed induced bull market with little economic structure to support it can only run for so long. Guessing how long it can go is a lesson in frustration, however. The broader market was relatively flat for the year until last week's rally. That's another indication that the bull may be running out of steam.

For next week, I am neutral (like the smart money).

 

[coolhand]

Small caps closed lower today, while the S&P 500 edged higher. Weakness in small caps could be a top marker of sorts.




Price on the DWCPC is also hitting resistance (3X) at falling trend line resistance. Volume remains low.

The options are neutral for Tuesday. TRINQ closed very low, which is bearish for Tuesday.

I suspect the market is ready for some measure of a pullback. Let's see how much we get.

 

[coolhand]

I said yesterday that I thought the market was ready for some selling, but that I wasn't sure how much we could expect. Interestingly, small caps held up well in contrast to the broader market.




So, price was rejected at trend line resistance on the DWCPF. Price on the S&P is falling as well, but remains above its resistance line. Momentum is turning down. Volume picked up a bit, but only a bit. For Wednesday, the options are neutral. Breadth has turned down, but remains positive. Technically, things still look okay, but the market may see some downside follow through. I am not looking for anything deep, however.

 

[Robo5555]

I hope we don't have a big drop.

 

[coolhand]

The DWCPF hit a fresh high today on the current rally and it broke trend line resistance in the process. The S&P 500 has stopped climbing and is now tracking sideways.




Breadth is hitting fresh highs again. The options are neutral to modestly bearish heading into Friday. NAAIM came in more bullish, but some of those managers put on shorts again. TRINQ closed at a very high level today, which is bullish for Friday. My guess is that the market sells down soon, but finds a bottom and reverses over the next few trading days.

 

[coolhand]

Friday's action was choppy and mixed; like the indicators. The week closed mixed too, as the S fund was the only TSP stock fund to post a gain.




Momentum is falling on the S&P, but rising on the DWCPF. Both are acting fatigued.

My intermediate term system remains positive. Breadth is still positive, though it went sideways on Friday (hint of selling on tap?). The options are leaning bullish for Monday. NAAIM is bearish short term, but bullish beyond 3 days or so. TSP Talk remains pretty bullish (bearish).

I continue to look for weakness in the short term, but suspect it won't go deep or last all that long.

 

[coolhand]

Once again, the market is ignoring bearish signals and powering to the upside. Breadth soared on Monday and that's an indicator that carries a lot of weight. Futures are pointing up this morning. The options are bearish for Tuesday. The market remains a bull, however.

 

[hotwings]

So CH -

Have you scaled back into TSP?

 

[coolhand]

So CH -

Have you scaled back into TSP?

No. I am focused and transitioning into crypto currencies now and do not plan to play in the stock market again. I scaled back my tsp contributions (min. 5%) to push funds into crypto and pm's. The CBs can play their games all they want now, but not with my money. The future of CBs is one of doom and I don't think it's all that far off now.

I will continue to post here as I have been, but in August my subscription to stockcharts will expire and I won't be renewing it. From there it will be simple commentary with no charts.

Let me clarify what I mean by doom. I don't know exactly how the transition from the dollar to crypto is going to play out (yes, that's what I believe). It's likely that companies will be compelled to convert from the old system to the new, but the new system will not be managed by CBs. They will be relegated to the dustbin of history. I am pretty certain of that. I don't want to be heavily invested in the old system when the reset hits, so I'm spreading out my risk.

 

[coolhand]

We finally got some selling, but most of it came toward the end of the trading day. No serious technical damage was done. Volume was average.




Momentum did turn down a bit, as did breadth. The options are now neutral. There is a very damning report from the IG coming out very soon; I think it's tomorrow. This could cause some volatility if it does in fact get released. How the market reacts to it may be interesting. I don't generally get into any detail in my commentary when citing this kind of potential activity, but I think it should at least be acknowledged as a potential market mover. From a technical perspective, the market still looks bullish.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

No. I am focused and transitioning into crypto currencies now and do not plan to play in the stock market again. I scaled back my tsp contributions (min. 5%) to push funds into crypto and pm's. The CBs can play their games all they want now, but not with my money. The future of CBs is one of doom and I don't think it's all that far off now.

I will continue to post here as I have been, but in August my subscription to stockcharts will expire and I won't be renewing it. From there it will be simple commentary with no charts.

Let me clarify what I mean by doom. I don't know exactly how the transition from the dollar to crypto is going to play out (yes, that's what I believe). It's likely that companies will be compelled to convert from the old system to the new, but the new system will not be managed by CBs. They will be relegated to the dustbin of history. I am pretty certain of that. I don't want to be heavily invested in the old system when the reset hits, so I'm spreading out my risk.

Well, at least you are positive on the crypto market... all I see is red and it getting redder...

Sent from my bag phone using Tapatalk

 

[hotwings]

CH,

I too think Crypto is going to emerge and take over some or all of the financial system as we know it today. When that will happen is the million $ question. I have been following/trading the cryptos since this time last year and continue to be “invested” long term in ETH, ADA and XRP. I have learned a lot from the YouTube videos that Dave from “the chart guys” puts out each day. Thanks again for sharing your analysis/commentary on this board and best of luck to you going forward.

 

[coolhand]

CH,

I too think Crypto is going to emerge and take over some or all of the financial system as we know it today. When that will happen is the million $ question. I have been following/trading the cryptos since this time last year and continue to be “invested” long term in ETH, ADA and XRP. I have learned a lot from the YouTube videos that Dave from “the chart guys” puts out each day. Thanks again for sharing your analysis/commentary on this board and best of luck to you going forward.

I think we are going to know a lot more by the end of this year. The battle over monetary control is heating up. Globally, many countries are moving away from the dollar and toward the Yuan, crypto and gold. A new paradigm is slowly taking shape.

 

[evilanne]

CH,

I too think Crypto is going to emerge and take over some or all of the financial system as we know it today. When that will happen is the million $ question. I have been following/trading the cryptos since this time last year and continue to be “invested” long term in ETH, ADA and XRP. I have learned a lot from the YouTube videos that Dave from “the chart guys” puts out each day. Thanks again for sharing your analysis/commentary on this board and best of luck to you going forward.

I think we are going to know a lot more by the end of this year. The battle over monetary control is heating up. Globally, many countries are moving away from the dollar and toward the Yuan, crypto and gold. A new paradigm is slowly taking shape.

Any advice for total novice on how to get started with cryptos? How do you know what to get into with so many different options?

 

[coolhand]

Any advice for total novice on how to get started with cryptos? How do you know what to get into with so many different options?

We are all novices when it comes to crypto. It is anticipated that it will take another 10 years for this form of commerce to reach some degree of maturity, but it is starting to become a viable form of exchange now. The county tax collector in the county next to me here in Florida (Seminole) announced about a week ago that they are going to begin accepting crypto for tax payments in the near future. More and more headlines like this are being seen. We are still in the early stages, but now is the time (in my opinion) to get smart on this. I bought a subscription to a "crypto school" to help me begin navigating this new territory: https://www.remaincalmschool.com/

Think of it like the internet in its early stages. Many folks thought it was cool, but didn't see how it was going to mean anything when it first became accessible. When Visa first became a viable form of payment folks thought it was crazy to pay for things with "plastic".

I am buying crypto within the higher market capitalization's to help mitigate risk, because risk is certainly not zero. There are more and more websites standing up that offer info. Here's one I use: https://coinmarketcap.com/

Just keep in mind that this thing is evolving and volatility is currently part of the game, but it is expected that that volatility will eventually smooth out. I am dollar cost averaging my entries too. The main coins I buy are BTC, ETH and ZEC, but I also have a few others as well. I can exchange between them within the wallet that I use (something else that's still evolving).

That cryto school I mentioned does a good job of educating you on the basics, but you can learn a lot on your own if you're willing to dig. nnutt has been posting videos on a regular basis here on this site. It won't take long to start sorting things out once you spend some time doing it.

 

[coolhand]

The market remained resilient on Wednesday. Price is holding up well overall even as the indexes can still be considered overbought. The weakness that I was looking for over the past few days is being countered by buying pressure to keep the illusion that we have a strong stock market and economy. Crypto is currently being hammered as part of the monetary battle taking place behind the scenes. In the end, the stock market will eventually collapse. It's just a matter of when.




Since no one can really predict with any certainty exactly when a collapse will occur, I will simply lay out the technical picture as I typically try to do.

Momentum is flat. Strength is largely flat as well. While price on the DWCPF had been rising as the S&P 500 was tracking sideways, it has now come under some pressure. It looks like we may have bull flags on the DWCPF, but the S&P 500 appears to be consolidating around the 2725 area.

The options are leaning a bit bullish for Thursday. NAAIM releases their sentiment later this morning. My intermediate term system remains positive as does breadth.

For now, the technical picture still looks bullish.

 

[coolhand]

It wasn't a particularly exciting day in the market on Thursday. There was some weakness, but once again it was countered by buying. Overall, price didn't change much.




Momentum is on the flat side currently. Breadth remains positive. The options have gone neutral heading into Friday. NAAIM was relatively unchanged, which is neutral to bullish to my eye (they are leaning bullish).

There isn't anything in the indicators to suggest a big move either way. More chop may be in store.

 

[amoeba]

I'm a strong neutral as well, though I part company, completely, when it comes to crypto investment of any kind...now or ever....perhaps a metaphor would help: compared to investing in cryptos, I feel I would get more out of my money by burning it and roasting weenies. This is not from personal experience, although I know of those who learned "the hard way."



Sent from my SM-J320P using Tapatalk

 

[coolhand]

The TSP stock funds closed mixed last week, with the C and S funds posting modest gains and the I fund getting hammered for about a 1.5% loss.




Heading into next week, momentum is waning across the indexes, but price is tracking sideways. The S&P and DWCPF still look bullish and may be consolidating for another leg higher. Maybe.

Breadth dipped toward the end of the week, but is still positive. The options closed the week neutral. NAAIM is neutral to bullish. TSP Talk is still bulled up. My intermediate term system remains positive, but showing signs of possible topping; though that can happen if the averages are consolidating.

For next week, I am neutral to modestly bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Monday's start to the new week certainly wasn't bullish. But as usual, the indicators remain mixed (surprise).




Today's downside action came on higher volume, which may be an early warning, though I want to emphasize the word "early". Look at the meltdown of Deutsche Bank as being part of that early warning.

Momentum has turned down. We can see that price on the S&P 500 just about tested its 50 dma before retracing some of its losses to close well above that key support line. The DWCPF saw some selling pressure too, but the Russell 2000 significantly outperformed the rest of the market and that kept this index in good shape. Honestly, this chart suggests new highs are a likelihood before long.

Breadth is falling rather hard, but remains positive, still. The main battle seems to be in the NYSE, which shows the A/D line falling hard. But the Nazdaq A/D line is holding up well.

The options look neutral for Wednesday with both the OEX and CBOE leaning modestly bearish.

I am looking for some degree of downside follow through, but the bears will likely not have an easy time of gaining any traction in that direction. Look for the CB to continue waving their magic wand to levitate this market.