coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

We bounced. The options suggested we would. But the market didn't retrace all of Monday's losses.




Price on the S&P 500 got back above its 200 dma. But that 50 dma started turning lower more than a week ago. It's possible the top for the year is in, but I know not all skilled traders believe that. In their defense, the market hasn't fallen apart either, so they could be right. Momentum is turning up again. It's negative enough that we could see that multi-day rally start any time. Volume hasn't been huge either, which suggests recent selling pressure was not as serious as it might seem.

The options are leaning a bit bullish again, but not as much as Tuesday. Breadth remains negative as does my intermediate term system.

My guess is that we may have more back and forth action coming, but I am expecting that volatility to eventually give way to concerted buying pressure.

 

[coolhand]

Boy, if you're long like I am, today's action was a good test of your meddle. The bears must have been falling all over themselves getting short as the S&P 500 dropped below its 200 dma at the open. I know I wasn't feeling too bullish at that time.




But, it wasn't long after the open that price began to firm up and start a slow ascent back to the neutral line and eventually beyond as the market closed for decent gains on the day. Momentum on the S&P 500 flipped positive as did breadth!!! Now, we are not out of the woods, but I am feeling more comfortable that a low is in for now. A test of the falling 50 dma may be coming.

The options are neutral for Thursday. NAAIM reports in the morning.

 

[coolhand]

We got some upside follow through for Thursday. Does it have legs?




The DWCPF is approaching its falling 50 dma. I suspect it will be tested. The S&P 500 has further to go to do the same. Momentum is rising. Breadth is looking very good the past 2 days. My intermediate term system is improving, but still negative.

The options look mostly neutral this evening. NAAIM didn't change much, so there is lingering bearishness among some of those money managers. That could mean volatility even if the market continues to claw higher, which I believe it will. I reduced my TNA exposure today, but remain 100% long in TSP stock funds.

 

[coolhand]

30 minutes after I sold TNA, the after market plunges hard on more tariff talk . If you've been listening to the X22 report, you'll understand what's going on.

 

[James48843]

I’m thinking a lot about what you are saying Coolhand- and I think you are right- except that the trade war is throwing a monkey wrench into everything- so I am going to exercise additional caution- I too think we saw some great firming bottoming the last couple of days- EXCEPT the wild card of Trump trade war tariffs is scaring too many people. Maybe that is just a better buying opportunity tomorrow!


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[coolhand]

Maybe we aren't going to test that 50 dma after all. After 2 successive moves to the upside, with a lot of stuff starting to turn up, the market came crashing down on Friday. I can't say I am entirely surprised as I expected volatility to remain with us. But the move lower wiped out much of the earlier gains.




On the plus side, the 200 dma held on the S&P 500. But momentum and breadth turned down. In fact, breadth is neutral and not far from flipping negative again should the market test the lows again.

The options show the OEX neutral, while the CBOE is bullish. What is very interesting is that TRIN closed very high, while TRINQ closed very low. That sounds like chop on Monday. NAAIM is split between bulls and bears. The fact that NAAIM is more bearish than its been in a long while may not be a bullish sign.

I am backing off my bullish disposition for now, though I am not outright bearish either. The charts remain in no man's land with both sides battling hard for control of market direction. The market can go either way in my opinion and volatility will likely continue.

 

[coolhand]

After gapping to the upside at the open, the market biased higher until about 2 p.m. and then proceeded to give back the bulk of some nice gains all the way into the close.




So, the market closed mixed overall. The 50 dma's continue to fall as the sideways volatility continues largely just above the 200 dma.

The options are neutral heading into Tuesday. Breadth is neutral and struggling a bit.

Given today's rally could not be sustained, I remain cautious about the upside prospects for this market. It remains possible that support fails, so I am not making any big upside bets. But I am also not doing anything on the short side. I prefer to have most of my position(s) parked in cash at this time, though I am 100% stocks in TSP. That may change soon depending what the market eventually does when it gets out of its current trading range.

 

[coolhand]

The battle along the 200 dma (support) continued on Tuesday as price pulled further away from it on a nice rally. But that rally failed to close above Thursday's high. That's not a major issue, but it does show that price is hitting resistance on the top of its current trading range.




Momentum turned back up. Breadth looked very good today. The 50 dma's continue to fall even as the 200 dma is still rising. The DWCPF appears to have kissed its 50 dma, but did not break it.

The options show the OEX neutral, while the CBOE is bearish. My intermediate term system is one signal away from going positive.

Will the volatility continue? It very well might as price slowly gets compressed between support and resistance. I remain neutral.

 

[coolhand]

The tug-of-war continued today as the S&P 500 got hit with a moderate loss, while the DWCFP posted a modest gain. The S&P is hitting resistance below the 2675 area. The DWCPF is flirting with its falling 50 dma, but has not yet closed above it. Volume was anemic.




Heading into Thursday, the OEX is bearish (smart money), while the CBOE is neutral. Breadth is positive, but it stalled today. I don't have much to go on heading into Thursday, but the smart money is bearish, so we could see more selling. The fact that this is a news driven market should give you pause if making any big bets in the short term.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls managed to push the indexes to the upside today. Price on the S&P 500 is still fighting resistance and it's now hitting 3 week highs. Can it jump the creek? And even if it does, will it eventually make a lower high? The 50 dma remains to be tested too.




The DWCPF closed above its 50 dma. That's bullish for moment, but will price make a lower high on this chart too? Volume remains on the low side, which is not exactly inspiring for the bulls. But at least in moving in the right direction.

The OEX is leaning heavily bearish this evening. The CBOE is neutral. NAAIM backed off on their bearishness, but they are still showing some respect for the volatility by not getting overly bullish.

My intermediate term system flipped positive. Breadth remains positive and moved higher on the day.

With futures pointing lower this evening and the OEX bearish, I suspect the market is going to give something back on Friday. Overall, the market is looking favorable for the bulls.

Unfortunately, a simple tweet can change things quickly. And I don't have a tweet indicator.

 

[burrocrat]

f it

 

[amoeba]

Short answer...yes, it can jump the 50 EMA creek. 26/46 aaii bull/bears, 18 VIX, is the tell.

Sent from my SM-J320P using Tapatalk

 

[coolhand]

As expected, the market gave back a bit on Friday, though it wasn't all that much. Since the bulls have the edge overall, the downside may be resilient at this point.




However, the S&P 500 has not tested its falling 50 dma yet and the DWCPF, which closed above its 50 dma on Thursday, closed right on that key average on Friday. Momentum is positive, though not robust. Volume remains on the low side.

The options are neutral overall for Monday. NAAIM is neutral. TSP Talk is more bullish than I'd expect given the volatility. I view that as bearish. TRINQ closed at a high level Friday, which is bullish for Monday. Breadth is positive.

Overall, the bulls have the nod. Key resistance levels could be a problem for the bulls, however, and the market remains susceptible to news headlines. I am neutral for next week.

 

[amoeba]

No news will be good news this week, I predict. Overcooked volumes on short futures/instruments to fade.

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[nasa1974]

No news will be good news this week, I predict. Overcooked volumes on short futures/instruments to fade.

Sent from my SM-J320P using Tapatalk

Let's hope the missile strikes yesterday don't bleed over to the markets on Monday. Fortunately, it appears the saber rattling has subsided for now.

 

[coolhand]

The market rallied smartly Monday and held the bulk of its gains into the close.



I'm just posting one chart this evening. You can see that price on the S&P 500 kissed its falling 50 dma today. Momentum remains on an upward tack, though strength is nil. Volume remains on the lower side.

Breadth is rising and is solidly positive. The options are neutral.

As I've indicated the past couple of days, the bulls have control right now and I would not be surprised if the S&P 500 closed above its 50 dma this week. If it does, we have to look for a resistance at a possible lower high, which will be in the 2725 area.

 

[coolhand]

The market had a gap and go day Tuesday. The S&P 500 blew right past its 50 dma.




Strength and momentum both rose. Breadth is looking very bullish. The options are neutral again.

Things are starting get interesting to the upside. Everything is turning up. I have no reason based on the indicators to expect any serious downside; at least in the short term. We do have a line of resistance getting closer on the S&P 500, which needs to be watched. It could be tested as soon as Wednesday. My guess is that if it gets tested, resistance probably won't hold. Not with breadth as strong as it is.

 

[coolhand]

As expected, the market rallied a bit more on Wednesday. Interestingly, the highs of the day did not hold and a good portion of intraday gains were erased. At the same time, price is now entering into an area of resistance where it's possible we see a lower high followed by a reversal; though not necessarily an immediate one.




The bullish perspective still shows breadth very bullish and it did hit new all-time highs today. But, it has had a bit of a run, so we could be due a pullback for this reason as well as the hitting overhead resistance.

The OEX is neutral to modestly bullish for Thursday. The CBOE is bearish. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

I am looking for a pullback very soon, but the downside could still be limited if we get it. Overhead resistance may hold initially, but price may test it more than once and certainly we may see resistance break on further upside. I am neutral at this point.

 

[coolhand]

Yesterday, I said that the major averages were starting to press into an area of resistance and that breadth was hitting fresh all-time highs. That meant we could expect some selling soon, which we got. Interestingly, volume rose a bit. The 200 dma was tested for support today and held.




The options are neutral heading into Friday. NAAIM got more bullish and the bears among them are not betting on the downside. That tells me that the chance of any serious decline is unlikely for the time being. Breadth did turn down as did momentum.

I don't have any strong feelings about Friday. I tend to think the market may chop around, but next week I suspect we may see an attempt to take the market higher once more.

 

[coolhand]

Heading into Friday's action, I said that I had no strong feelings about market direction given the mixed signals and consequently thought the market would likely chop around as a result.

I guess it did chop around, but it did so with a downside bias. For the week, the TSP stock funds still tacked on decent gains.




For Monday, NAAIM is largely neutral as are the options. Breadth has been dropping hard the past 2 trading days, but remains positive. My intermediate term system is positive, but deteriorating after 2 down days. The S&P 500 powered lower on Friday and price has closed well under its 50 dma, which is a key support line. Maybe a bull flag is forming, but we need to watch how price acts for a few days as another test of the 200 dma is not out of the question, though I do not expect it. The DWCPF remains is good shape be contrast.

Overall, I'm neutral again (as I was last week).