coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Overnight weakness before Wednesday's open had me watching carefully to see what impact Cohn's departure would really have on the market. Weakness came early, but eventually faded. In fact, small caps rallied rather hard.




While the S&P 500 is still trading under its 50 dma, the same cannot be said for the DWCPF, which is the beneficiary of a small cap resurgence. This is very interesting and suggests that this market may be stronger than many think. Small caps generally do well in recovering economies and ours is no exception. So, while the S&P 500 appears dicey, the DWCPF is hitting higher highs. I don't think that should be discounted.

The options are generally neutral for Thursday. Breadth remains positive. NAAIM reports tomorrow. My intermediate term system remains negative, but not by a lot.

I have to say that the small cap rally definitely has me leaning bullish right now.

 

[coolhand]

The S&P 500 came back on Thursday, while the DWCPF took a break. No harm, no foul. It's normal market action.




The S&P 500 is now testing its 50 dma. Since the DWCPF is bullish, I am not expecting this test to fail, though we could see a pullback that will not last long. I say this because NAAIM is still bullish, but some of those money managers put on shorts again. They have tended to be right of late, but these short positions tend to be short-lived (no pun intended). The fact is, the market does remain a bull and is much more likely to see new highs than head back down to test the February lows. We just have to allow for a pullback along the way.

The options are neutral. Breadth is positive.

Overall, I remain bullish and am perfectly willing to ride any weakness in order to make sure I do not miss out on a rally that may catch many off guard. I believe the small cap space is telling us something.

 

[coolhand]

I've been leaning bullish for a few days now given the bullish small cap rally and NAAIM sentiment. Of course breadth has been favorable too. Friday's rally continued to validate my expectations even as I was allowing for some measure of a pullback before hitting new highs.




The S&P 500 gapped past its 50 dma on Friday and closed the day more than 1.7% higher. The DWCPF wasn't far behind with a more than a 1.4% gain. The I fund was the laggard with a 0.78% gain.

Momentum is rising. Breadth is looking very bullish. With the 50 dma now taken out, the picture gets more bullish.

NAAIM is bullish overall. TSP Talk bulled again too. The options are neutral to my eye for Monday, but in the context of the rally they may be bullish as that's how the OEX is leaning.

I remain long and continue to believe new highs are coming.

 

[hotwings]

CH,

Cautiously agree!

 

[coolhand]

No charts this evening. They didn't change much. A lot has turned up since Friday. Monday's action was mixed as the market took a breather from last week's upside action.

The options are neutral for Tuesday. Breadth remains positive. Momentum is pointing up. My intermediate term system remains stubbornly negative, but only because one signal refuses to flip. That's okay. We remain in a bull market and right now the path of least resistance is up.

 

[coolhand]

The market started out strong on Tuesday, but was not able to hold on to its gains on yet another significant news day (Tillerson).




The chart I am really watching right now is the DWCPF. It's looking strong as it makes higher highs on the peaks and is not too far from its all-time high now. The S&P 500 is struggling a bit, but looks okay. The small cap rally suggests the underlying strength of this market is just fine. Today's pullback was due given the extent of the latest up leg.

For Wednesday, the options are leaning bearish. Breadth has turned down, but remains solidly bullish. I am looking for some additional downside that will probably come Wednesday, but this market could bottom quickly and reverse. With price convincingly above the 50 dma, the bulls are charge. Weakness is likely a bull flag in the making.

 

[coolhand]

As expected, we got some downside follow through on Wednesday. I was hoping for a turn today, but we obviously did not get it. That means tomorrow is that much more likely to see a bottom.




The S&P 500 closed just above its 50 dma, and that may yet get broken, but the DWCPF remains well above that key line of support. For that reason, I am not overly concerned about the S&P 500. When small caps are leading the market, that's usually a bullish sign.

The options are neutral for Thursday. Breadth remains bullish, but has turned down. Momentum is falling as well.

My outlook remains the same. I am looking for new highs; at least on the DWCPF, which could see them once a bottom is established with the current selling pressure.

NAAIM reports tomorrow.

 

[coolhand]

At the beginning of this week, I thought we'd end the week higher than we began, though not without some degree of downside pressure along to the way. Friday is now here and the TSP stock funds are all down, so if we are to have a positive week Friday will have to see some significant buying pressure.




The DWCPF pulled back some more on Thursday, but the chart still looks bullish. The S&P 500 is playing with support at its 50 dma.

NAAIM came in more bullish. Last week, this group saw some shorting that I said would likely result in some degree of downside from the market and it did. Now, those shorts have been taken off, so downside pressure is more likely to be limited from here and in fact I would expect some upside pressure over the days ahead given how they are positioned.

The options are neutral. Breadth is still falling, but remains in a bullish configuration.

So, I am looking for a turn back up over the days ahead.

 

[coolhand]

Friday, the market managed to recapture some of its weekly losses, but not enough to erase them. The C fund got hit hardest last week, down 1.2%. But the S fund was down less than half that at 0.54%. The fact that small caps outperformed, even when selling down, is bullish at its core.




Price on the S&P 500 continued to dance along support on the 50 dma Friday, while the DWCPF rallied at bit to distance itself a bit further from its own 50 dma. It sure looks like a bull flag to me.

NAAIM is bullish, and you know what that means. TSP Talk went from bullish to neutral, but that dip in bullishness is actually bullish against the backdrop of a bullish NAAIM. The options are neutral. Breadth is bullish.

I said on Thursday that I thought we'd see a move back to the upside over the next few days and Friday's mixed trading could be a sign that we are getting close. I remain long C, S and I funds.

 

[coolhand]

On Friday, it appeared that the market may be getting ready for a turn back up soon. I certainly allowed for some degree of downside before bottoming, but the indicators did not suggest the pounding it took on Monday.




The S&P 500 fell through support at the 50 dma like a knife through butter. The DWCPF tested its 50 dma, but closed well above it; albeit for a sizable loss. Momentum turned down. It was not bullish action at all. However, there was some degree of a recovery in the afternoon trade, though it wasn't strong enough to be convincing that a bottom might have been achieved.

Monday's action was driven by news and uncertainty. At least that's the narrative. And I do believe that there may be no small degree of political influence in today's downside action.

Breadth fell hard and is now neutral. If the market continues to fall, it will likely flip negative.

I don't want to put a bullish spin on today's downside pressure. It was not pretty and there could be more coming. But technically, the DWCPF remains fairly bullish. Even the S&P 500, while falling through its 50 dma, has not made a lower low and you can still draw a line at the bottoms and find support. But what happens from here is going to be key. It's still too soon to get overly beared up, but I will admit that I am not feeling as bullish as I was late last week. TRINQ closed at a very high level, so that's bullish for tomorrow for the NAZ. We need more than a bounce though. We need a multi-day rally soon with an accompanying upside spike in breadth.

 

[coolhand]

The market is wavering a bit right now. We closed mixed. Breadth is now negative. The options are bullish for Wednesday, but it's also Fed day, so things do have the possibility of getting choppy for a day or two.

Some of you may find this interesting:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cx5sZoSiIQ

If you are having trouble with some youtube videos, I recommend getting TOR. I've had no trouble watching youtube videos on that browser as opposed to Firefox.

 

[evilanne]

Interesting video. If you believe this is possible, how much of your investments do you have in Cryptos? What percentage in Gold?

 

[userque]

Meh. One thousand and five hundred "episodes" and still no economic collapse. Not to mention no evidence is presented of a "deep state" (whatever that is) conspiracy, just "Dave's" opinions.

The market is wavering a bit right now. We closed mixed. Breadth is now negative. The options are bullish for Wednesday, but it's also Fed day, so things do have the possibility of getting choppy for a day or two.

Some of you may find this interesting:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cx5sZoSiIQ

If you are having trouble with some youtube videos, I recommend getting TOR. I've had no trouble watching youtube videos on that browser as opposed to Firefox.

 

[coolhand]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQouKi7xDpM&feature=share

 

[coolhand]

Interesting video. If you believe this is possible, how much of your investments do you have in Cryptos? What percentage in Gold?

I do not own cryptos or gold. I do own silver. But that's not the point. It's all about risk. No one can accurately predict how these things play out and the author of the video does mention that. I am not suggesting anyone go out and buy these alternatives. The video was for personal consumption and folks will view it through different lenses. The more one researches and learns what they can about what's really going on, the better one can assess risk.

 

[userque]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQouKi7xDpM&feature=share

Ex-C.I.A. Agent Goes Public With Story of Mistreatment on the Job - The New York Times

https://www.fortheloveoffreedom.net/shop

 

[coolhand]

Ex-C.I.A. Agent Goes Public With Story of Mistreatment on the Job - The New York Times

https://www.fortheloveoffreedom.net/shop

You can find opposing views on everything under the sun. I only seek the truth. Misinformation is rampant.

“The only barrier to truth is the belief that you already have it.” | Come now, let us reason together.

For anyone with an open mind, PM me. This topic is otherwise closed.

 

[userque]

You can find opposing views on everything under the sun. I only seek the truth. Misinformation is rampant.

“The only barrier to truth is the belief that you already have it.” | Come now, let us reason together.

For anyone with an open mind, PM me. This topic is otherwise closed.

Before we close, I'd like to respond as well. If you prefer, this can be moved to my thread, or I can repost it and your quotes into my thread if you have it deleted--either way, it's not that serious to me:

I agree with you that, "You can find opposing views on everything under the sun. I only seek the truth. Misinformation is rampant."

An open mind considers facts.

If I were to post something extraordinary, I would not expect everyone to agree with me. I would also expect replies to my posts ... especially if I posted in a discussion forum.

Normally things go: post, then a reply. Another post, then another reply. If I make a debatable post, I wouldn't expect that I would get the last word in ... since I had the first word; but that's just me, I guess.

And if I didn't want any opposing views, I wouldn't post in an internet discussion forum. I'd probably start a blog and disable comments. And have a 'like' button--no 'unlike' button though.

“For any reputable person or organization to be successful, that person's or organization's actions must be based on solid information, not conspiracy theories, not hearsay, not rumors, and certainly not fear mongering.” ― Mike Klepper

 

[nnuut]

Enough!

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Facts are based on ones reality.

In other words "facts" can be biased (not referring to scientific laws, a very different story).


Sent from my SM-J727V using Tapatalk