coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Monday started out with a moderate pullback. There will be those who fear this may be the beginning of something more substantial, and while I can't absolutely predict the future, I'd resist the temptation to get overly bearish here. We were due a pullback, and we got one. Sure, we could see more downside, but this is a bull market that has not been kind to bears. Dips should be bought until proven otherwise.

The options are neutral heading into Tuesday. Breadth is now neutral and close to flipping negative. Don't forget, NAAIM is NOT bearish. I remain long and unfazed by the selling. In fact, I'm glad we got some as that helps reset the indicators to some extent.

 

[kb9nvh]

As much as this pullback was anticipated its still hard to watch. I know this is probably a buying opportunity but I've chosen my risk and that's where I'm sitting. I was in for the giant build up so I can afford to give some back. I did eliminate my meager F fund holdings to moved them into I and C so I have a little more downside exposure now but not much. From where I stand I see no real reason for this other that the buy up was overdone. I guess the fear of money tightening was the trigger..but we didn't need much..everyone was needing a reason to protect their gains.

 

[coolhand]

Yesterday, I said we had to allow for some additional downside action, but that dips should still be bought as this remains a bull market. We obviously got more selling, and while it was more than I would have expected, it was not over-the-top by any means. This actually gives us a better set-up for a rally post SOTU.




And a rally is likely given the bullish options this evening. Breadth is now negative, but the A/D line is holding up rather well. This is typically when we have seen turns before.

It will be interesting to see how futures fare in the night session.

 

[kb9nvh]

Yesterday, I said we had to allow for some additional downside action, but that dips should still be bought as this remains a bull market. We obviously got more selling, and while it was more than I would have expected, it was not over-the-top by any means. This actually gives us a better set-up for a rally post SOTU.

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And a rally is likely given the bullish options this evening. Breadth is now negative, but the A/D line is holding up rather well. This is typically when we have seen turns before.

It will be interesting to see how futures fare in the night session.

And me with some dry powder ...humm, 12 noon sucks as a decision point

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk

 

[coolhand]

The market was set up for a rally on Wednesday and did start out positive, but gradually gave back gains, closing mixed on the day.




Overall though, technical damage is not significant and I am not concerned about recent weakness at this point.

For Thursday, the options are now rather neutral. Breadth ticked back up a bit, but is still negative. My intermediate term system is near a sell. I'd be more inclined to look for more significant downside action, but this market has a habit of frustrating the bears. I really don't think the downside will last.

NAAIM reports tomorrow.

 

[coolhand]

It was an up and down day in the market on Thursday. At this point, it appears that politics may be at the root of the weakness. I can't go into specifics, but many of you probably know what I'm talking about. There are those in the market that may not want to chance the final outcome, but I am not one of them. Still, I do think the selling may not be over, but at the same time I still doubt we fall apart. The fundamentals that have helped fuel this rally are still in place.

The options remain neutral. NAAIM is neutral, though I note that some of those money managers flipped bearish (short), but many who where bullish previously, remain bullish. Breadth is fighting to turn back up, but does remain negative. My intermediate term system is negative. Negative enough at this point to look for a turn before long. TRINQ closed at a very high level, which is bullish for Friday.

Futures have been positive of late, but the active trading session has not gotten much traction out of it.

I'm riding it out. I remain bullish overall, though concede we may have more weakness to contend with before a bottom.

 

[rangerray]

I got out the other day, like I’d commented, then got back in due to all of the chatter and my greediness. I wish I’d stuck with my gut because I’m now stuck in the free fall. I hope you’re right that it turns back up again. I’m 100% I.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[nnuut]

How do you spell "Market Manipulation"?

 

[coolhand]

Last week's action was not what most were anticipating. It was the worst week in quite some time for the bulls. The indicators really didn't give us much to work with. It is, after all, a bull market. And it's still a bull market. As ugly as the action was, it was not unhealthy as it helped reset a lot of stuff.

Now, having said that, I am not a comfortable bull. I don't like the underlying ramifications of what caused the sell-off. Here's the thing, there are still those who do not want a hard decline. I just don't know how much control that side has.






I don't use this chart much anymore. It's a measure of volatility vs. the Wilshire 4500. It suggests that a bottom may be near.

There was plenty of technical damage last week. The good news is that the 50 and 200 dma's have not been broken on either the S&P 500 or the DWCPF. But they may yet get tested. Breadth is falling hard as is momentum. My intermediate term system is negative. TRIN closed at a very high level on Friday, which is bullish. The OEX (smart money) is neutral. The CBOE (dumb money) is wildly bearish, which is bullish. NAAIM (smart money) is neutral, but has (or had at last reading) a lot of bulls. TSP Talk is still bullish (overly so) and that's bearish, but bullishness has not been bearish in forever.

I don't like that precious metals fell, along with stocks. Bonds are are falling hard too. Banks are getting hit. It would certainly appear that something has changed. Unfortunately, there is no telling how this plays out given the backdrop for the decline.

For the moment, I am just watching to see what happens next. We're oversold. Volatility is rising, so a significant bounce could happen. The question is, if we get one, will the bull be able to regain control?

I have no hard expectations for next week as I am playing it day by day for the time being. Having said that, I am not complacent either and may go to cash if I see no evidence of buying.

 

[coolhand]

When the market gets hit like it did last week and then drives much lower to begin the new week, we know it's not simple profit taking. Fear is driving this market and it's not the fear of inflation, though that could be an eventual element. Huge whipsaws can occur in this environment, which makes it very hard to know what to do if you are caught on the wrong side of it. Get out too soon and you could miss a big rally. Ride it out and it could go much lower before a sizable bounce.

This is the world of central banking. This kind of market action is planned. There are plenty of books out there to that can help one gain an understanding of how the game is played at the top of the food chain. Unfortunately, even with keen insight, we are often blind to the market's swift fury (in both directions).




Look at the damage to price in just 2 days. The 50 dma is now broken. The 200 dma is still below. Futures are negative, but trying to recover this evening.

The options have the smart money leaning a bit bearish. The dumb money is still heavily bearish (they were right on Monday). TRIN remains very high, though oddly, TRINQ is neutral. Breadth is falling off a cliff.

Yeah, we should bounce soon, but I suspect there will be some whipsaws to deal with as volatility is likely to be present. I remain long.

 

[nnuut]

Don't fight the FED!

 

[Robo5555]

Futures up again. Still riding the wave. We have to be getting close to a correction. Killer Jan and Feb pullback? Any thoughts?

I should listen to myself more often. Got out Friday morning so I took the 666 point hit. Lucky I was out yesterday. Good luck everyone. Now the dilemma...when to jump back in.

 

[nasa1974]

I should listen to myself more often. Got out Friday morning so I took the 666 point hit. Lucky I was out yesterday. Good luck everyone. Now the dilemma...when to jump back in.

Just a thought. Watch the numbers and when you get close to what last Friday was jump back in. Or take a chance and jump in today or tomorrow and catch low tide.

On days like we have had lately it stinks that we only have 2 IFT's to play with.

 

[coolhand]

The market was all over the place on Tuesday, but ended up the trading session with gains on the day.




It's hard to say if the worse is over for now. I'm thinking we revisit the lows at the least.

Heading into Wednesday, the OEX is neutral. The CBOE remains pretty bearish. Breadth bounced, but is still quite negative. My intermediate term system shows signals that are low enough to look for a bottom.

Volatility will likely remain with us for the time being. The economic recovery is still moving forward, though that doesn't mean much to the powers that be. I would like to think that the sell-off will eventually be met with significant buying pressure as I don't think the Fed holds all of the cards like they once did.

I remain long for now.

 

[Robo5555]

Maybe the double bottom will be signal to jump back in.

 

[coolhand]

Maybe the double bottom will be signal to jump back in.

Even if the DB doesn't hold, I can still see this market rally back at some point. I don't think it's a remote possibility either.

 

[coolhand]

It was a wild ride today. That's bullish, believe it or not, because the volatility tends to mark bottoms. And this does still remain a bull market.

The options are bearish for Thursday. TRINQ closed at a very high level, which tends to be bullish. Breadth rose on Tuesday, but went flat on Wednesday.

The market may not be ready to resume its long term upward trend. Volatility is not likely to dissipate quickly either. There are lots of undercurrents to the market right now, but I'm still betting that the bull finds its feet eventually.

 

[coolhand]

After today's rout, I would expect bearish levels will begin to rise even more.




NAAIM came in more bearish, but they are not shorting the market. They are still respecting this bull, though they are also limiting long exposure. The options have not updated yet for some reason. Breadth turned back down and remains bearish. My intermediate term system is buried to the downside.

Obviously, the market is oversold. We are due a bounce once more. The question still remains as to the status of the bull market. We do have a correction in progress, but will it go much deeper? I don't have solid evidence of that, but emotionally it feels that way. I remain long, but not complacent. If we rally again, I will likely lighten up, but will maintain some stock exposure.

 

[coolhand]

Before I provide my usual analysis, I wanted to take a moment to stress to anyone reading my posts that I try to provide an honest assessment of what the indicators are telling me. A good portion of the time I think my analysis is at least worth considering to go along with whatever you the reader are using to make decisions. If the market is allowed to move on its own accord (there are times it is not), technical and sentiment analysis can work great. But there are times when higher level control levels are pulled by those who have the power to do so and they can change the complexion of a market in very short order.

This is what I am sure is happening now with the recent sell-off. What I don't know, is how deep this may go. Then again, it's possible we're at or near a bottom given the stretched indicators.

I do not have a crystal ball that can tell me without risk what is going to happen under these circumstances. At least not one that can do so with precision.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled post.




All 3 TSP stock charts tested their 200 dma's on Friday and bounced rather hard. That's encouraging if you're a bull. Momentum is buried to the downside, which is bullish. The 200 dma may get tested again, but I am wondering if the 50 dma may get tested on a rally to the upside.

NAAIM is leaning a bit bearish, but not overly so. The options smart money is neutral for Monday. The CBOE is wildly bearish (dumb money). Interestingly, the TSP Talk sentiment survey, while not a bullish as last week, is still pretty bullish overall. That isn't bullish if this market is looking to shake more weak hands loose.

Breath is still bearish, but may be trying to put in a bottom.

Overall, I think there is a good chance the late rally on Friday carries over into Monday, but volatility is likely to still be with us. We are due more upside. I'd prefer to see the bull take control and send the market back to its previous highs, but that's probably wishful thinking on my part. Knowing that the sell-off was not organic forces me to temper my upside expectations.

 

[kb9nvh]

Grok Trade guy seems to think we will bounce back to one of the trend lines then enter the depths of hell after that. So if true maybe a chance to make some money if you can time it right. I will be sitting tight happily in my G fund and watch from the sidelines until the market settles down again. Good luck everyone with your investments..