If we seem to be green at Noon tomorrow, I will join you on the sidelines
-
Welcome to the TSP Talk Forums forums.
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content, join our AutoTracker, and access many other special features. Registration is simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us. -
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
20% Off Annual Premium Subscriptions!*
Ends Jan 18... Click Here For More Information
* For new or current subscribers -
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
coolhand
Well-known member
We got some decent upside follow through on Monday. That's a good sign, but we are still well below the 50 dma. That average may get tested this week.
The options have not reported yet, which is unusual. They were late last week too. Breadth improved, though it's still negative as is my intermediate term system.
I do remain long in my accounts. I've decided to see if the market can test the 50dma. If it does, (I think it's likely) I'll reassess the prospects of further upside and go from there.
The options have not reported yet, which is unusual. They were late last week too. Breadth improved, though it's still negative as is my intermediate term system.
I do remain long in my accounts. I've decided to see if the market can test the 50dma. If it does, (I think it's likely) I'll reassess the prospects of further upside and go from there.
coolhand
Well-known member
Today's initial downside pressure wasn't able to last the trading day as the averages clawed back to close for moderate gains. That's a good sign for the bulls.
Momentum is rising and not far from turning positive. The 50 dma may serve as a magnet to pull price up for a test sooner or later.
The options are showing the smart and dumb money both leaning bearish for Wednesday. That's neutral. Breadth remains negative, but it seems to be trying to recover. TRIN and TRINQ are both neutral. My intermediate term system remains negative, but the signals are improving.
So, the market has rallied 3 days in a row since tagging the 200 dma. It may be forming a bear flag, but I'm not bearish here. The 50 dma will be key if the market can test it. That will help define the months ahead depending on how that test goes.
Momentum is rising and not far from turning positive. The 50 dma may serve as a magnet to pull price up for a test sooner or later.
The options are showing the smart and dumb money both leaning bearish for Wednesday. That's neutral. Breadth remains negative, but it seems to be trying to recover. TRIN and TRINQ are both neutral. My intermediate term system remains negative, but the signals are improving.
So, the market has rallied 3 days in a row since tagging the 200 dma. It may be forming a bear flag, but I'm not bearish here. The 50 dma will be key if the market can test it. That will help define the months ahead depending on how that test goes.
coolhand
Well-known member
coolhand
Well-known member
Yesterday saw both the smart and dumb money leaning bearish for Wednesday. They were right early on, but their bearishness was punished not long after with a significant rally.
Price still has not tested the 50 dma, but it covered a lot of ground in approaching that key average today. Momentum on the S&P 500 turned positive. Breadth remains negative, but could flip positive in another day or 2 if the market can continue to move to the upside. The options are neutral for Thursday.
The 50 dma should get tested soon. As I said yesterday, how that test goes may determine how the market trades in the months ahead. But I should point out that while there are those that want higher prices, there are those that do not. Those that do are still in charge (the bulls), though a more thorough retracement of recent losses is needed to confirm that control.
I believe a bottom is in at this point. I remain long.
Price still has not tested the 50 dma, but it covered a lot of ground in approaching that key average today. Momentum on the S&P 500 turned positive. Breadth remains negative, but could flip positive in another day or 2 if the market can continue to move to the upside. The options are neutral for Thursday.
The 50 dma should get tested soon. As I said yesterday, how that test goes may determine how the market trades in the months ahead. But I should point out that while there are those that want higher prices, there are those that do not. Those that do are still in charge (the bulls), though a more thorough retracement of recent losses is needed to confirm that control.
I believe a bottom is in at this point. I remain long.
coolhand
Well-known member
The bounced continued Thursday. And 50 dma is now getting tested. Price closed right at that average on the DWCPF, but a little bit above it on the S&P 500. Not only that, but it closed near the highs of the day.
So the market is at a key area of resistance now, but the action has been bullish, which bodes well moving forward.
The options are neutral to bullish for Friday. Breadth flipped positive. Interestingly, NAAIM saw some bears go short in today's poll, but they are in the minority. Maybe we get some short-lived weakness soon, but I don't think we'll see anything of import.
My feeling is that the market will continue to bias to the upside as it retraces losses from over a week ago, but a pullback here and there along the way is certainly not out of the question.
So the market is at a key area of resistance now, but the action has been bullish, which bodes well moving forward.
The options are neutral to bullish for Friday. Breadth flipped positive. Interestingly, NAAIM saw some bears go short in today's poll, but they are in the minority. Maybe we get some short-lived weakness soon, but I don't think we'll see anything of import.
My feeling is that the market will continue to bias to the upside as it retraces losses from over a week ago, but a pullback here and there along the way is certainly not out of the question.
coolhand
Well-known member
The bulls had a great week, last week. The rally off the 200 dma has now hit 6 consecutive days. So far, the 50 dma is holding, but I'd be more comfortable if it would decisively clear that key average.
You can see that price is is just above the 50 dma on both charts. Momentum is rising. Breadth is positive.
NAAIM has gotten less bullish the past 2 weeks. I read this sentiment as neutral. TSP Talk got more bullish, which makes me uncomfortable. Bullishness has not been bearish for the most part, in a long while. The options are neutral to modestly bearish for Tuesday.
I note that TRINQ closed at a very high level on Friday. That's supportive for the bulls heading into Tuesday.
For next week, we may start getting some chop now that the 50 dma has been retaken. A pullback is not out of the question, though I am not looking for a deep one. Perhaps, it will be just enough to give the bears some hope. It's still a bull market, so I have to give the bull the benefit of the doubt.
You can see that price is is just above the 50 dma on both charts. Momentum is rising. Breadth is positive.
NAAIM has gotten less bullish the past 2 weeks. I read this sentiment as neutral. TSP Talk got more bullish, which makes me uncomfortable. Bullishness has not been bearish for the most part, in a long while. The options are neutral to modestly bearish for Tuesday.
I note that TRINQ closed at a very high level on Friday. That's supportive for the bulls heading into Tuesday.
For next week, we may start getting some chop now that the 50 dma has been retaken. A pullback is not out of the question, though I am not looking for a deep one. Perhaps, it will be just enough to give the bears some hope. It's still a bull market, so I have to give the bull the benefit of the doubt.
coolhand
Well-known member
Today's pullback should not be a surprise. The market has recovered a lot of lost ground. The 50 dma is now a battle line, but one that the bulls should eventually win simply because it is a bull market.
The options are leaning a bit bearish for Wednesday. Breadth is back to neutral. Price on the DWCPF and S&P 500 is below the 50 dma again.
On balance, it was a healthy pullback and should help set-up the next push to the upside, though that may still be days away...or not. There may be more selling pressure to deal with, but patience is likely to be rewarded with another upside run sooner or later.
The options are leaning a bit bearish for Wednesday. Breadth is back to neutral. Price on the DWCPF and S&P 500 is below the 50 dma again.
On balance, it was a healthy pullback and should help set-up the next push to the upside, though that may still be days away...or not. There may be more selling pressure to deal with, but patience is likely to be rewarded with another upside run sooner or later.
coolhand
Well-known member
Things were going along rather well for the bulls today until the Fed minutes got released. That brought out the sellers as the S&P 500 sold off from some decent gains up to that point to a moderate loss by the close. Small caps help up better, which was perhaps a bit odd and could mean that the selling will not last long.
So the 50 dma remains a technical resistance area. The options are looking neutral heading into Thursday. Breadth turned negative, though it held up pretty well given the early strength. Upside momentum stalled.
Sentiment may be starting to become more of an issue for the market, though it's still too early to really say. The problem with sentiment, and our TSP Talk survey is a good example, is that it really is too bullish, and has been for some time. When sentiment used to mean something, overly bullish readings tended to get punished, but that has not been the case for a long time. Is is changing? As I said, it's still too early to know, but if rates are really going to rise then market character will likely change along with it. Just something to watch for now.
The bulls obviously need to retake the 50 dma. That's the area to watch right now.
So the 50 dma remains a technical resistance area. The options are looking neutral heading into Thursday. Breadth turned negative, though it held up pretty well given the early strength. Upside momentum stalled.
Sentiment may be starting to become more of an issue for the market, though it's still too early to really say. The problem with sentiment, and our TSP Talk survey is a good example, is that it really is too bullish, and has been for some time. When sentiment used to mean something, overly bullish readings tended to get punished, but that has not been the case for a long time. Is is changing? As I said, it's still too early to know, but if rates are really going to rise then market character will likely change along with it. Just something to watch for now.
The bulls obviously need to retake the 50 dma. That's the area to watch right now.
coolhand
Well-known member
Another late day reversal took the market from some nice gains back down to a mixed close. Resistance at the 50 dma is holding so far.
NAAIM got modestly more bearish, and while the reading is technically neutral, I note that their longer-term bullish perspective is slowing being sapped. That does not make me comfortable longer term. The OEX is bearish for Friday. Breadth remains negative, but isn't falling much.
The bulls can still win the battle at the 50 dma, but the chances of a retest of the lows is increasing with every rejection at that key resistance line.
NAAIM got modestly more bearish, and while the reading is technically neutral, I note that their longer-term bullish perspective is slowing being sapped. That does not make me comfortable longer term. The OEX is bearish for Friday. Breadth remains negative, but isn't falling much.
The bulls can still win the battle at the 50 dma, but the chances of a retest of the lows is increasing with every rejection at that key resistance line.
coolhand
Well-known member
Well, Friday's rally was certainly a nice surprise. Not that I was surprised we rallied, but that we rallied as hard as we did. The DWCPF closed just a bit North of its 50 dma, but the S&P 500 powered through it and closed well above its 50 dma.
That rally really helped put some of charts into a more bullish posture too. Breadth in particular was strong and is now back in positive territory. That's a big plus for the bulls. Momentum has turned back up.
On the sentiment side, the options are neutral heading into Monday as is NAAIM. TSP Talk is still pretty bullish. In fact, we've been bullish for months. I have to go all the way back to September to get even get a neutral reading.
I have a hunch that Friday's pop may have been a warning to the bears. We'll have to see how it plays out now, but the jump in breadth is very bullish.
That rally really helped put some of charts into a more bullish posture too. Breadth in particular was strong and is now back in positive territory. That's a big plus for the bulls. Momentum has turned back up.
On the sentiment side, the options are neutral heading into Monday as is NAAIM. TSP Talk is still pretty bullish. In fact, we've been bullish for months. I have to go all the way back to September to get even get a neutral reading.
I have a hunch that Friday's pop may have been a warning to the bears. We'll have to see how it plays out now, but the jump in breadth is very bullish.
coolhand
Well-known member
I am leaning bullish. But the market may be in the process of changing character (which can take time). If it is, I don't want to get overly confident (bullish or bearish) unless the indicators are very supportive of either. Fundamentals are being challenged by the CB as they raise rates into an economy that never really recovered from the housing bubble collapse to begin with. I do acknowledge the tax cuts and the cutting of regulations, but the positives are being countered by those who wish to reverse the recovery.
coolhand
Well-known member
Tuesday's selling pressure was not unexpected, given the extent of the rally since bottoming about 2 weeks ago. The 50 dma was not tested, though that could still happen in the short term.
Breadth remains positive despite turning down. The OEX P/C is bearish heading into Wednesday. The CBOE is neutral.
My expectation is that the decline will be short lived. We could see a test of the 50 dma, but the selling pressure was sufficient to trigger at least a short term bounce. This remains a bull market, so I am not inclined to get bearish here.
Breadth remains positive despite turning down. The OEX P/C is bearish heading into Wednesday. The CBOE is neutral.
My expectation is that the decline will be short lived. We could see a test of the 50 dma, but the selling pressure was sufficient to trigger at least a short term bounce. This remains a bull market, so I am not inclined to get bearish here.
coolhand
Well-known member
As expected, the 50 dma did indeed get tested on the S&P 500. Obviously, it did not hold and price closed pretty much at the low of the day.
I don't think many traders saw that much selling coming. It seemed to occur as a combination of a big drop in oil, a substantial amount of sell orders at the close and a strengthening dollar. Most of that selling occurred in the last hour of trading.
Momentum has turned down. Breadth is negative again. The options are neutral. My intermediate term system remains positive, but under attack.
The late day swoon was not bullish, so we can probably expect some selling to carry over into Thursday. I am really not expecting this market to retest the February low, though there are some traders who are. Of course, that would be a much steeper drop from here. I prefer to look at what may be a bull flag on the charts.
NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain long.
I don't think many traders saw that much selling coming. It seemed to occur as a combination of a big drop in oil, a substantial amount of sell orders at the close and a strengthening dollar. Most of that selling occurred in the last hour of trading.
Momentum has turned down. Breadth is negative again. The options are neutral. My intermediate term system remains positive, but under attack.
The late day swoon was not bullish, so we can probably expect some selling to carry over into Thursday. I am really not expecting this market to retest the February low, though there are some traders who are. Of course, that would be a much steeper drop from here. I prefer to look at what may be a bull flag on the charts.
NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain long.
coolhand
Well-known member
Today's selling pressure was probably more of a carry over from Wednesday's drop, but talk of levying tariffs may have also contributed to the action.
Breadth is still negative, but not falling off a cliff as in the previous decline more than 2 weeks ago. The options are leaning neutral to bullish.
NAAIM had a spike in bullishness. This has been bullish for a long time, but historically could produce weakness over a 1-3 day period. Maybe today's drop satisfies that norm. There are no shorts now. We'll see.
There was a moderate reversal today that managed to close the averages off their lows. I note that small caps held up much better than most of the other averages. That would seem to be at least a bit bullish.
Overall, the action is corrective, given the size of the rally off the bottom. But selling is not generally raising bearish levels, and while that hasn't been a problem for a long time, this market isn't the same market after February.
Having said that, the fact NAAIM got long leads me to believe this selling won't last much longer.
Breadth is still negative, but not falling off a cliff as in the previous decline more than 2 weeks ago. The options are leaning neutral to bullish.
NAAIM had a spike in bullishness. This has been bullish for a long time, but historically could produce weakness over a 1-3 day period. Maybe today's drop satisfies that norm. There are no shorts now. We'll see.
There was a moderate reversal today that managed to close the averages off their lows. I note that small caps held up much better than most of the other averages. That would seem to be at least a bit bullish.
Overall, the action is corrective, given the size of the rally off the bottom. But selling is not generally raising bearish levels, and while that hasn't been a problem for a long time, this market isn't the same market after February.
Having said that, the fact NAAIM got long leads me to believe this selling won't last much longer.
coolhand
Well-known member
NAAIM got bullish on Thursday, and after some weakness early on Friday, the market gradually turned around and rallied into close. I said that since NAAIM turned off their shorts, the bottom may not be far off. I'm not ready to declare a bottom, but we just might have one.
The OEX got bullish for Monday, while the CBOE is neutral. TSP Talk came in neutral, which means we aren't as bullish as we've been (for months). We aren't all beared up either, which would have helped the bullish case even more.
This technical signals are a mixed bag overall. My intermediate term system is negative, but a day or 2 of upside could flip it back to positive. Breadth turned back up, but not enough to go positive; though it's not far from it. Small caps are outperforming, which is bullish in a recovering economy (I just wish it would be more consistent).
Next week will be interesting. I am not sure what to expect, but if the smart money is bullish then we should be too. I remain long TNA, SPXL and the C, S, and I funds.
The OEX got bullish for Monday, while the CBOE is neutral. TSP Talk came in neutral, which means we aren't as bullish as we've been (for months). We aren't all beared up either, which would have helped the bullish case even more.
This technical signals are a mixed bag overall. My intermediate term system is negative, but a day or 2 of upside could flip it back to positive. Breadth turned back up, but not enough to go positive; though it's not far from it. Small caps are outperforming, which is bullish in a recovering economy (I just wish it would be more consistent).
Next week will be interesting. I am not sure what to expect, but if the smart money is bullish then we should be too. I remain long TNA, SPXL and the C, S, and I funds.
coolhand
Well-known member
The smart money was bullish heading into the new week and once the early weakness dissipated, the market powered higher to give us a nice gain to start the week.
The 50 dma's have not been retaken, though price is sitting just under that key area of resistance.
The options are neutral to bullish heading into Tuesday. Breadth turned back up and is positive again, though it hasn't hit a higher high yet. My intermediate term system is one signal from flipping positive.
Overall, I think there's more upside, but we are at or approaching some key resistance in the 50 dma. We may have to endure another shot to the downside before the week is over, though I am not pounding the table for it. Let's see if price can hurdle past resistance first. If it can do that, we could be heading for new highs.
The 50 dma's have not been retaken, though price is sitting just under that key area of resistance.
The options are neutral to bullish heading into Tuesday. Breadth turned back up and is positive again, though it hasn't hit a higher high yet. My intermediate term system is one signal from flipping positive.
Overall, I think there's more upside, but we are at or approaching some key resistance in the 50 dma. We may have to endure another shot to the downside before the week is over, though I am not pounding the table for it. Let's see if price can hurdle past resistance first. If it can do that, we could be heading for new highs.
coolhand
Well-known member
The DWCPF closed well past its 50 dma on Tuesday, which is bullish. The S&P 500, while higher, did not test its 50 dma; though it was not far from doing so.
As I watched the futures in the early after hours trading, they gave back a small portion of gains, which was not unusual. Then, not long after that they dropped much harder. It appeared to be a news related drop, so I checked the news and sure enough I found why the market was reacting negatively. Gary Cohn resigned as Trump's economic advisor. I am not surprised by the market's reaction, but that's about all I can say about it without getting into political details.
So we'll see whether futures recover by the morning or not. I'm thinking we may have another hard reversal in store given the financial battle that's been playing out in the background.
The options are looking bearish this evening as both the CBOE and OEX are leaning in that direction. Breadth remains positive.
I'm looking lower tomorrow. Maybe much lower given that Cohn was a Wall Street favorite. The options being bearish doesn't help either. Let's hope the early after hours reaction dissipates by morning.
As I watched the futures in the early after hours trading, they gave back a small portion of gains, which was not unusual. Then, not long after that they dropped much harder. It appeared to be a news related drop, so I checked the news and sure enough I found why the market was reacting negatively. Gary Cohn resigned as Trump's economic advisor. I am not surprised by the market's reaction, but that's about all I can say about it without getting into political details.
So we'll see whether futures recover by the morning or not. I'm thinking we may have another hard reversal in store given the financial battle that's been playing out in the background.
The options are looking bearish this evening as both the CBOE and OEX are leaning in that direction. Breadth remains positive.
I'm looking lower tomorrow. Maybe much lower given that Cohn was a Wall Street favorite. The options being bearish doesn't help either. Let's hope the early after hours reaction dissipates by morning.
Similar threads
- Article