coolhand's Account Talk

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Ok, will someone educate me please. I am seriously confused. I am 100% in the I fund. Day before yesterday, the graph for the MSCI EAFE which the I fund mirrors, finished what appeared to be flat but when I came in yesterday and looked, the I fund in the TSP showed that it was up moderately; enough to give me a couple hundred dollar gain. Then yesterday, the MSCI EAFE graph showed a day long spike upward and the day finished what I thought was .63 gain, which should have translated into a good gain for me on the TSP but when I came in this morning, the tsp shows I had a little over 1 cent gain per share. What gives???? The other funds reacted as expected but I just don't get this I fund.
 
CrgButcher said:
Ok, will someone educate me please. I am seriously confused. I am 100% in the I fund. Day before yesterday, the graph for the MSCI EAFE which the I fund mirrors, finished what appeared to be flat but when I came in yesterday and looked, the I fund in the TSP showed that it was up moderately; enough to give me a couple hundred dollar gain. Then yesterday, the MSCI EAFE graph showed a day long spike upward and the day finished what I thought was .63 gain, which should have translated into a good gain for me on the TSP but when I came in this morning, the tsp shows I had a little over 1 cent gain per share. What gives???? The other funds reacted as expected but I just don't get this I fund.
Click to expand...

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/the-i-fund/

Read the sticky notes under this to understand how Fair Valuation (FV) works and why it exists for the I Fund.
 
I guess we had a good week last week (yeah, that's an understatement).

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

The S&P 500 has that vertical look to it now. It's very overbought, but I am not bearish on that fact. Small caps are finally helping the DWCPF catch up a little bit.

NAAIM remains bullish overall, though neutral in the present. I wasn't paying a lot of attention to the TSP Talk survey, but it's been highly bullish for months now. I've suspected for some time that sentiment was not a particularly good tool (except for NAAIM) to use in assessing market direction. At least not as a contrarian indicator. I haven't even looked at AAII in quite a while now. The options are bullish for Tuesday. Breadth is bullish (of course). The trend is up!

We're due a pullback, but I am not looking for anything serious in the short term. Getting bearish in this market can be counter productive.
 
Yes CH, great week last week....and check the futures for today! Looks like a great start for this week as well. This is going parabolic. Awesome to be in the invested side and a lil scary as well. I've been around for a while so you know what I mean. I'm going to keep riding this wave for now. Check this link out. They are predicting a 4-5% pullback into Feb.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/d...nt-jump-putting-26000-within-reach-2018-01-16
 
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CH,

i agree with you. It’s awesome but scarey at the same time. A pullback of 4-5% would be heathy for the markets, especially if I can be in the G fund before it happens ��. I look forward to your daily analysis which is one of the best in this forum.
 
We are in uncharted territory, which is why calling sell-offs is so hard in this market. A reversal can happen, of course, but it could come from much higher. The sells I got last week cost me money as I exited stocks looking to buy a dip and promptly watched price continue to rise. The tools I use to gauge market direction don't work the way they once did. I've had to incorporate some degree of political analysis, which I generally don't share, to help me frame the correct point of view. NAAIM helps me a lot, because that's smart money that is almost certain to have some degree of inside information.

While anything can happen in the short-term, keep in mind that we may have to endure a shot down that comes quick and reverses fairly quick too. Many have been on the outside looking in and are desperately looking for a chance to buy. Trying to time that is likely going to be very challenging. For these reasons, it's the longer term I am focused on. I feel more comfortable with that perspective. And right now we likely have months of upside to go, pullbacks notwithstanding.
 
The market came roaring out the gate on Tuesday and appeared poised to pick up where it left off last week. Alas, it reversed and gave back all of its gains and then some. Small caps once again led the way to the downside. My TNA position topped at around $80 and fell to as low as about $74.25 before retracing about a dollar above that. By contrast, the S&P 500 (SPXL) saw nowhere near the volatility.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

We have some larger than normal red candlesticks today, but they aren't as ugly as they seem given the large upside retracement. Still, the market was overdone and the downside may not be over. But how comfortable can the bears be? It's as though the market is daring them to go for it.

The OEX is neutral (smart money). The CBOE is bullish (dumb money), which is bearish, but this indicator has been mixed at best. Breadth fell, but remains quite bullish for now.

The bearish case is hardly compelling right now. Today's reversal could be the bulk of the downside we're going to get. It's as I've said, the selling could come from higher and it did. I am just not certain how much more we can expect, if any (short-term). Perhaps we chop around for a bit now. We'll just have to see.
 
coolhand said:
The market came roaring out the gate on Tuesday and appeared poised to pick up where it left off last week. Alas, it reversed and gave back all of its gains and then some. Small caps once again led the way to the downside. My TNA position topped at around $80 and fell to as low as about $74.25 before retracing about a dollar above that. By contrast, the S&P 500 (SPXL) saw nowhere near the volatility.

View attachment 42720
View attachment 42719

We have some larger than normal red candlesticks today, but they aren't as ugly as they seem given the large upside retracement. Still, the market was overdone and the downside may not be over. But how comfortable can the bears be? It's as though the market is daring them to go for it.

The OEX is neutral (smart money). The CBOE is bullish (dumb money), which is bearish, but this indicator has been mixed at best. Breadth fell, but remains quite bullish for now.

The bearish case is hardly compelling right now. Today's reversal could be the bulk of the downside we're going to get. It's as I've said, the selling could come from higher and it did. I am just not certain how much more we can expect, if any (short-term). Perhaps we chop around for a bit now. We'll just have to see.
Click to expand...
Exciting times...are there any bubbles out there to burst like before? I just hope we get back to a normal climb..rocket sleds to the moon scare me.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk
 
The selling pressure sure didn't last long, but I suppose we could still see an attempt to test the low again. I wouldn't bet the farm on it though.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

I know some folks keep looking over their shoulder thinking something is gaining on them, but I am not one of them. The bearish headlines are always out there. The biggest one right now is the potential for a Government shutdown.

Who says the market wouldn't rally on such an event? The market doesn't always act the way we think it should. If it were that easy, we'd all be rich. :smile:

Anyway, we bounced. Dips should be bought. That's what I was alluding to a couple of days ago. Shot lower and quick move back to the upside. Don't blink or you may miss it.

For tomorrow, the options are on the bearish side, but the smart money is neutral. The dumb money is very bullish, which was bearish, but that's how they were today and we rallied. The options can be hit or miss if you're using them to help predict market direction. Breadth turned back up. There is no technical damage to the charts. I have no reason to look for serious selling pressure when there is little resistance (if any at all) above current price levels. Futures are currently up. Imagine that.
 
Thursday saw the market pull back modestly. Price remains not far off the all-time highs.

The OEX is bearish for Friday. The CBOE is neutral. NAAIM remains bullish (zero short bears). Breadth is bullish as is liquidity. TRINQ is very low, which does suggest weakness for Friday.

So, I'm looking for a bit more selling on Friday, but it's a buying opportunity if we get it.
 
I said on Thursday that I thought we might get a bit more selling, but that it would be a buying opportunity if we got. As it turned out, we really didn't see much selling as price continues to drift to the upside leaving many on the sidelines staring in disbelief. The market's reaction to a Government shutdown (at this point, anyway) is not what some thought it would be. Will Monday see a reversal? It might, but we're due a pullback anyway, so it would not be a surprise if some selling occurs on Monday instead.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

NAAIM remains bullish overall with zero short bears. The options are neutral for Monday. Breadth has been up and down the past few days, but biased to the upside in any event. TRIN and TRINQ closed moderately higher on Friday, which at face value is somewhat bullish for Monday.

Nothing has changed. The market remains bullish and will likely stay that way for some time yet. There are some interesting changes occurring, such as the weakness in bonds and the dollar, but I don't want to read too much into that at this time. It could be bullish for the market as money fleeing bonds may be heading into stocks. And a falling dollar is good for international trade. It just depends on how you want to perceive what's happening.
 
Are you long yet?

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

The rally of a lifetime is still alive and well and likely has much more upside coming in the months ahead.

The options are modestly bullish to neutral for Tuesday. Breadth is hitting fresh highs (again). The feared Government Shutdown is over for the moment (and the market really didn't care all that much).

It really isn't necessary for me to pontificate about indicators in any big detail. The charts tell you everything (above). And the EFA looks the same way.

It's tough to buy dips in this market. Market timing the TSP in this market environment is especially difficult under the circumstances. And yes, I am a market timer. But I know when the odds are usually against me and it does not pay to be anything other than a bull right now.
 
Well, I got out today before we knew that the gov was going to reopen. So, tomorrow I will miss the fun. But, I can’t afford to lose right now with a little over 3 years left until retirement. I can replace the dollars eventually, but I can’t replace the time.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
 
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