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coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
I believe the correct grammar is "C and S are doing better than me."
:laugh: OK, I'm bored. :nuts:
userque
Well-known member
I earlier learned that phrases like this are (for example) short for, "C and S are doing better than I {am doing}."
But I later learned that both ways are 'acceptable.'
"Than I" Versus "Than Me" | Grammar Girl
blueroadster
Member
Time for a drink? C and S arr doking butter dan I...Funds dat is.
userque
Well-known member
coolhand
Well-known member
The market is starting out 2018 a lot like 2017. The sell signals I got 2 days ago were useless as breadth continues to push to fresh all-time highs. Today's rally had me take another position in TNA as this thing is starting to look like a train just getting started. Of course, I could be wrong, but bearish leanings are generally not rewarded in this market. I've been using TNA vice SPXL since small caps "should" outperform in a recovering economy. So far, they have not matched the S&P 500, though they are doing okay overall.
NAAIM came in less bullish, but bullish nonetheless. The options look on the neutral side; though the CBOE is a bit bearish (that hasn't meant much). The new highs hit on the indexes suggest another up leg is in progress. The EFA is also soaring. Best to stay long for now.
NAAIM came in less bullish, but bullish nonetheless. The options look on the neutral side; though the CBOE is a bit bearish (that hasn't meant much). The new highs hit on the indexes suggest another up leg is in progress. The EFA is also soaring. Best to stay long for now.
coolhand
Well-known member
I have it from one of the premium services I subscribe to that the famous Don Wolanchuk believes that we are in the "epicenter of primary wave 3" and that we are witnessing a "once in a lifetime" rally.
That's easy to believe if you truly understand my previous post.
That's easy to believe if you truly understand my previous post.
coolhand
Well-known member
It doesn't seem like much is going to weaken this bull market. My guess is that we have months of upward movement to go (I don't want to speculate any further out than that). If we are indeed going to see a rally of a lifetime, it's probably best to (dare I say it) buy and hold; at least for the time being.
The S&P (and EFA) are making an upside run. I wonder when the DWCPF finally plays catch-up?
The options are leaning bullish for Monday. NAAIM is bullish. Breadth is bullish. The trend is up. I am long TNA. I'm currently in the G fund in TSP, but will redeploy to the stock funds before the end of the week. I plan to spread my allocation out across all 3 TSP stock funds.
The S&P (and EFA) are making an upside run. I wonder when the DWCPF finally plays catch-up?
The options are leaning bullish for Monday. NAAIM is bullish. Breadth is bullish. The trend is up. I am long TNA. I'm currently in the G fund in TSP, but will redeploy to the stock funds before the end of the week. I plan to spread my allocation out across all 3 TSP stock funds.
coolhand
Well-known member
Not much has changed. Monday was more of the same for the bulls. The options are neutral to modestly bullish for Tuesday. Breadth is running to the upside. I see traders looking for a top, but it's foolish to call tops in a market that is largely heading in one direction. Besides, the economy is under new management. Who says the rules are the same? I don't know the answer to that, but it's worth pondering.
For those of you who might remember, it was December 5, 1996 when then Fed Chair Alan Greenspan described the 90's bull market in terms of "Irrational exuberance" in a speech about the dot-com bubble.
And when did the market peak? About March of 2000, more than 3 years later.
Just sayin'.
For those of you who might remember, it was December 5, 1996 when then Fed Chair Alan Greenspan described the 90's bull market in terms of "Irrational exuberance" in a speech about the dot-com bubble.
And when did the market peak? About March of 2000, more than 3 years later.
Just sayin'.
coolhand
Well-known member
We got some weakness today, and the indicators are starting to slide a bit, but no technical issues have developed on what certainly appears to be a needed pullback.
Looking at tomorrow, TRIN closed at a very low level, which may mean more weakness for Thursday. The options show both the OEX and CBOE leaning bearish, which is technically neutral, but may be bearish given TRIN. Breadth closed lower for the 2nd day in a row, but is nowhere near a negative condition. NAAIM reports tomorrow.
My read is that we see lingering selling pressure on Thursday that doesn't really amount to anything serious. In fact, we could be weak early on and close on the stronger side later in the trading session.
Looking at tomorrow, TRIN closed at a very low level, which may mean more weakness for Thursday. The options show both the OEX and CBOE leaning bearish, which is technically neutral, but may be bearish given TRIN. Breadth closed lower for the 2nd day in a row, but is nowhere near a negative condition. NAAIM reports tomorrow.
My read is that we see lingering selling pressure on Thursday that doesn't really amount to anything serious. In fact, we could be weak early on and close on the stronger side later in the trading session.
Robo5555
Member
I'm hard pressed to find a reason for this market to tank.....it will at some point, I just don't think it will be anytime soon. Seems like up is the only way even on down days. We went from over 100 pts down to a 17 point down close yesterday. Maybe something drastic like N. Korea doing something foolish might have an impact or maybe the market would skyrocket(skyrocket...get it?) as a contrarian to show support for retaliation. I've heard many times that Jan sets the pace for the rest of the year and we are looking very good so far this month. Let it ride!
Frixxxx
Moderator
As long as China is buying our debt! Let them roll!
coolhand
Well-known member
Sorry I took so long to post. I've been away from home all day and got back late.
I thought we might see lingering weakness that turned to strength on Thursday, but we only got strength. Sorry for missing that call. :laugh:
I said early in the week that buy and hold is probably the best way to play this market for now and Thursday was evidence of that. I am going 100% stocks in TSP on Friday. Please keep in mind that my TSP account is not my primary account. I transferred my entire balance last summer into a self-directed account. I still have contributions going into TSP, but my balance is modest. I've been long TNA in my IRA, which was up more than 5% today.
No explanation should be needed for these charts. They are overbought, but are emphatically telling you what direction we're headed.
It is very hard to trust sell signals in this market. All you can do is hold on for the ride and hope to recognize the top, which is difficult at best. Having said that, any top would almost certainly be short-term. I suspect there may be much more upside in the weeks ahead. Now, having said that, don't get overly bullish either. We can be bullish and optimistic and we certainly have good reason for being so, but the market can punish us when we least expect it. I am just following the indicators (with an eye on political maneuverings), which is not the same thing as a crystal ball (it sometimes seems that way).
For tomorrow, we're overbought and could get a pullback after Thursday's pop. The options are mostly neutral. NAAIM came in neutral, but is still leaning bullish and there are no bears in the reading. They know better than to get in front of a train. Breadth hit a fresh all-time high again.
Sit back and enjoy the action. I'm going 40/40/20 CSI on Friday.
I thought we might see lingering weakness that turned to strength on Thursday, but we only got strength. Sorry for missing that call. :laugh:
I said early in the week that buy and hold is probably the best way to play this market for now and Thursday was evidence of that. I am going 100% stocks in TSP on Friday. Please keep in mind that my TSP account is not my primary account. I transferred my entire balance last summer into a self-directed account. I still have contributions going into TSP, but my balance is modest. I've been long TNA in my IRA, which was up more than 5% today.
No explanation should be needed for these charts. They are overbought, but are emphatically telling you what direction we're headed.
It is very hard to trust sell signals in this market. All you can do is hold on for the ride and hope to recognize the top, which is difficult at best. Having said that, any top would almost certainly be short-term. I suspect there may be much more upside in the weeks ahead. Now, having said that, don't get overly bullish either. We can be bullish and optimistic and we certainly have good reason for being so, but the market can punish us when we least expect it. I am just following the indicators (with an eye on political maneuverings), which is not the same thing as a crystal ball (it sometimes seems that way).
For tomorrow, we're overbought and could get a pullback after Thursday's pop. The options are mostly neutral. NAAIM came in neutral, but is still leaning bullish and there are no bears in the reading. They know better than to get in front of a train. Breadth hit a fresh all-time high again.
Sit back and enjoy the action. I'm going 40/40/20 CSI on Friday.
Just before I read this I increased my position from 2020 fund to 2022 fund (I revised balances to what 2020 was 2 years ago). This puts me 50% invested half G, 25% C, 14% I, 6% S, 5% F which is what 2020 was two years ago. I didn't want to extend to the 2030 fund so I know i have to rebalance myself now as holdings change. I trust this market and I have time before I need to pull out any money (3 years probably).
