coolhand's Account Talk

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Hope everyone had a joyous Christmas!

Now that we're into the holiday season, the market traded in subdued fashion as expected. The options are neutral. Breadth is very bullish. Overall sentiment is too bullish, though I am not too concerned about that. I remain long S fund and TNA.
 
Early on, it looked like the market might be inclined to bias to the upside on the day, but instead it chopped lower and closed not far from the flat line. The trading range was rather tight.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

The options are neutral for Thursday. Breadth is hitting fresh all-time highs. TRINQ is very high, which typically means a reversal the next day (in this case, down), but BPCOMPQ is running to the upside and seasonality is bullish. Low volume also favors the bulls.

Bottom line: I remain long.
 
Good morning, do you believe that we might see a rally tomorrow to be followed by profit taking after the new year? Or a sellout to be followed by a rally? I've seen it go both ways in the past. Just wondering what your take is on this. Happy New Year!

Reason I ask is that if I have an IFT left nearing the end of the month, sometimes I usually use it by making a one or two day move based on what I think will occur in the very short term.
 
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Robo5555 said:
Good morning, do you believe that we might see a rally tomorrow to be followed by profit taking after the new year? Or a sellout to be followed by a rally? I've seen it go both ways in the past. Just wondering what your take is on this. Happy New Year!

Reason I ask is that if I have an IFT left nearing the end of the month, sometimes I usually use it by making a one or two day move based on what I think will occur in the very short term.
Click to expand...

Next week is still part of the holiday season and therefore I doubt we see profit taking of any magnitude. NAAIM remains bullish as does breadth.

If something changes, I'll post it here, but I am not bearish heading into next week.
 
Okay, after reviewing the latest information available to me, I think there is a reasonable chance the market sees some weakness next week. That is not a slam dunk in a market displaying positive breadth. Futures are pointing to a higher open. If we rally, the chances for some selling next week go up. Still, how much weakness we might see is debatable. It may be worth playing for, but I don't have a feel for the degree of any downside we may get.

I may lighten up this morning, but won't go entirely to the sidelines.
 
The action is not inspiring for bulls or bears, but the bulls are still in charge. I won't be making any adjustments to my current positions today.
 
I lightened up a bit going into the new year. I invested aggressively in C-S-I over my Federal career when I was working, however, now that I’m retired, I need to be a little more conservative. I try to mimic my own L2025 Fund allocation most of the time during the year using the G fund as my “bond fund” allocation. That mix helps me sleep better at night :smile:

CH, thanks for your daily updates. I find your thread as one of the best on this forum.

Wishing everyone a healthy, happy and prosperous 2018.
 
coolhand said:
The action is not inspiring for bulls or bears, but the bulls are still in charge. I won't be making any adjustments to my current positions today.
Click to expand...

No matter how the day (year) ends, 2017 has been a banner year for me. In fact, it is the best year I've had since retiring in early 2011. :D

Thanks for all your great commentary this past year. Your perspective has been most helpful. :notworthy:

Have a Happy New Year!!! :fest30:
 
Friday's action, which was the last day of the trading year for 2017, saw a choppy trading session for most of the day until the final 30 minutes or so when the sellers took control and drove price lower for a sizeable loss. I had mentioned prior to Friday's open that the chance for some selling next week was better than I had originally anticipated. Maybe that selling came early, which may improve the chances for some upside next week after all.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Volume was a bit more elevated Friday, but still lower than normal. No technical damage was done.

I note that TRIN and TRINQ closed at high levels on Friday. That's bullish heading into Tuesday. The OEX P/C is bullish too (smart money). Breadth remains solidly in the bullish camp. NAAIM backed off their bullishness last week, but they still remain bullish overall.

I see no change to the intermediate or longer term picture. It remains bullish. The short term looks bullish to my eye as well (next week).
 
The rally today has brought the averages back near their highs. I don't know how much more we may get before the close, assuming the high isn't in, but the chances for some selling are now increasing again. I plan to lighten up on the S fund and TNA today.
 
I can potentially see further strength in anticipation of and depending on the job number this Friday. Aaii is meaningless until next week's nonholiday value. Also looking for an interim exit, if it gets too hot.

Sent from my SM-J320P using Tapatalk
 
As you know, I said I was lightening up my S fund and TNA exposure today. I am viewing this as a short-term, albeit risky play. I locked in some nice gains, so I'm going to leave it at that and look for another entry in the days ahead.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

The indexes hit fresh highs today. That's not bearish.

The day before, I said that TRIN and TRINQ closed at very high levels and that was bullish for Tuesday. Well, now they've closed at very low levels on Tuesday and that's bearish for Wednesday. The OEX went neutral (smart money), but the CBOE went very bullish, which is bearish (dumb money). Breadth continue to hit fresh all-time highs.

So, I'm looking for a pullback on Wednesday, but downside plays are not oft rewarded in this market. Even if we get some selling, it may not amount to much. If you're holding long, that's fine. I don't have any hard evidence that were about to hit a wall. Again, my move today was a short-term speculative play. We'll see how it goes.
 
I said yesterday that I was looking for weakness on Wednesday, but I cautioned that this market makes it darn hard to play the downside. That didn't change either as the S&P 500, DWCPF and EFA all closed at fresh all-time highs. There was intraday selling pressure, but it was met all day long with buying pressure too.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Tonight, the options are largely neutral. Breadth remains bullish. The trend is bullish. We're due for some selling, but that doesn't mean we'll get much; though a correction sometime in January certainly seems reasonable. But that was my Grandfather's market. :rolleyes:

I remain on the sidelines for now.
 
I should listen to the master but this time I'm going to play a lil contrarian action. Staying all in for the time being.

Sent from my Z981 using Tapatalk
 
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