coolhand's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Yesterday, I said the indicators remained mixed, but that the Russell 2000 significantly outperformed the rest of the market and kept the DWCPF in good shape. The chart was telling me to look for new highs before long. I guess "before long" was the next day as the broader market rallied in robust fashion.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Price on the DWCPF broke to the upside. The S&P 500 rallied hard as well, but price is not breaking out as yet. In fact, it is well behind the DWCPF in that regard.

Momentum turned back up on the rally as did breadth (hard shot higher to a fresh all-time high).

But do we really have a break out? It's very possible, but tomorrow is looking bearish to my eye. TRIN closed at a very low level, which is bearish for Thursday, and that's the NYSE, which has been struggling. The options are leaning solidly bearish for Thursday as well. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

So, I'm looking for a pullback on Thursday, but I can't say how much we'll actually get. The fact that small caps are outperforming is not something we can easily dismiss, not to mention the all-time highs in breadth. So, while we could get that pullback, the bulls remain solidly in control of this market regardless.
 
Yesterday, I said that I was looking for some selling during Thursday's trading action. We got it. That selling pressure largely gave back Wednesday's gains. Volume was on the higher side too.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Momentum turned back down as did breadth. My intermediate term system remains positive, but some of the indicators have been leveling off or declining. It's possible that this is an early warning that the market is reaching some kind of top.

The options are neutral. NAAIM is neutral.

I am looking for the market to try to come back on Friday. Technically, the market continues to look okay. But that can change if negative global economic indicators (Italy, DB, etc.) begin to spread, which is what I expect it to do at some point. I cannot predict a serious decline with any precision, but I do believe the makings of one are slowly taking shape.
 
Last edited:
After last Thursday's sell-off, I said that I was anticipating the market bouncing back on Friday. It did and it also managed to hit fresh highs on the DWCPF. The S&P 500 has yet to break out with price now sitting near the top of its current trading range.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Momentum turned back up on the S&P 500. The DWCPF has been flat-lining for more than a week. While that may seem toppy, breadth shot higher again on Friday and hit yet another all-time high.

The options are neutral heading into Monday as is NAAIM. TSP Talk is also neutral.

I suspect that next week may be more of the same grind to the upside for the DWCPF, but without a decisive breakout on the S&P, I am not sure how much more upside we can really expect on that index. Small caps are the obvious place to be right now (S fund).

I remain wary of the underlying market structure and am convinced that this bull market will roll over at some point. But that could be days, weeks or months (I really don't think we're talking years). That's my longer term perspective even as the shorter term looks technically bullish.
 
I am on travel this week, so my posts will be condensed for a few days.

Monday saw the S&P 500 finally breakout to the upside. That's not really a surprise given small caps are pounding their way higher. I was looking for more upside grind and we're getting it.

The options are a bit bearish for Tuesday. Breadth is soaring. My intermediate term system remains positive.

The beat continues. We may see a pullback today, but the trend remains up.
 
The grind higher continued on Tuesday, with small caps helping lead the way once again.

2018-06-06_8-12-43.jpg
DWCPF.jpg

We can see the DWCPF breaking out with no upside resistance to stop it. No so with the S&P 500, which had a minor breakout the previous day, but still has significant upside resistance to contend with. Money is not exactly pouring in here.

The options are bearish for Wednesday. My intermediate term system is bullish and breadth is still soaring higher. I get the impression that we may be seeing the final upside push before a major peak. I have no timeline on that, however, and the expectation for a peak is my opinion only. This looks like typical CB manipulation to draw as many bulls into the market as possible, while crushing the bears before a major turn back down.

If you follow the technical picture, the market remains quite bullish.
 
We are due some selling and sentiment has supported that, but with breadth running away to the upside it's going to be near impossible for the bears to gain any traction. The S&P 500 actually spiked higher today. That could be a sign of more to come, and I think it is. The options are neutral this evening. NAAIM reports tomorrow. The technical indicators are bullish. Things could get silly to the upside. While I am still looking for some selling, I am not holding my breath for it.
 
The market tacked on some nice gains last week.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Sell signals are not working particularly well at the moment. Breadth is too strong (it's actually getting parabolic). I do note that the DWCPF is showing RSI in sell territory now, though by itself that is not enough to get bearish. TRIN and TRINQ closed on the low side Friday, which could mean a pullback for Monday or at least some choppy trading.

The options closed neutral on Friday. NAAIM is neutral. TSP Talk came in much more bullish, which is a bearish reading.

For next week, I am neutral to bullish. We're due some selling, but until breadth backs off fighting this uptrend makes no sense.
 
The market pretty much picked up where it left off last week as the major averages posted more gains to start the week. Interestingly, prices tumbled in the closing minutes to shave off a good portion of those gains. That is bearish action heading into Tuesday, but can we expect much of a pullback with breadth going parabolic?

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Volume was only average. Momentum is positive, but flat. The chart certainly remain bullish, though the S&P 500 has not hit another all-time high yet.

The options look somewhat bullish for Tuesday.

Overall, I see no reason based on the indicators to expect much change in market character. We could get some selling Tuesday, but the bulls remain solidly in control.
 
Tuesday brought a mixed market. Once again, we're due selling, but traction on the downside is very limited.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

And we can see that the DWCPF remains in a steady uptrend.

Breadth dipped just a tad today, but has been on a parabolic rise; a trend that has not been broken as yet. The options are leaning bearish for Wednesday (for what that's worth in this market). TRINQ closed low today, which is also bearish for Wednesday.

We'll see how the short-term bearish indicators play out, but I am not particularly bearish.
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
"Buy the Dip, Buy the DIP, BUY the DIP, DIP, DIIIIIIIP...."

Buying the dip is getting OLD...
Click to expand...

Once I firmly understood what was happening at the top of the food chain, I stopped worrying about it. Now is the time to accumulate. Once the CBs are wiped off the map, a new paradigm will emerge.
 
coolhand said:
Once I firmly understood what was happening at the top of the food chain, I stopped worrying about it. Now is the time to accumulate. Once the CBs are wiped off the map, a new paradigm will emerge.
Click to expand...
It's possible, but I wonder if the greedy dogs might not find a way to hold the collapse off much longer than we think....,the corrupt don't like losing and they play dirty! just a thought...don't put all the eggs in one basket......just in case....
 
I hadn't considered dipping a toe into crypto believing that its too risky, at least in the near term.

I don't necessarily buy into Coolhand's view of Central Banks and paper currency, but I have started keeping track of daily close of BTC-USD and ETH-USD trying to at least become familiar with the daily ebb and flow. I need to get smarter on that Wallet business...
 
Wednesday's pullback did little technical damage. Breadth is falling, but remains solidly bullish. The options are neutral for Thursday. NAAIM reports later this morning. Big news day with IG report coming out today (planned anyway). Anything can happen over the next few days.
 
turbo23dog said:
I hadn't considered dipping a toe into crypto believing that its too risky, at least in the near term.

I don't necessarily buy into Coolhand's view of Central Banks and paper currency, but I have started keeping track of daily close of BTC-USD and ETH-USD trying to at least become familiar with the daily ebb and flow. I need to get smarter on that Wallet business...
Click to expand...

study blockchain. this will be used to usher in cashless society worldwide. the one final crypto which will be used, only the global elitist know that one. last I read most corps are using ethereum crypto and not bitcoin.

[h=1][/h]
 
No real change to the charts, so I'm not posting them. Breadth rose on today's action, so it remains bullish. The options are leaning a bit bearish for Friday. NAAIM got even more bullish then they already were. That could bring some selling over then next day or three, but it's bullish otherwise. Any selling would likely still be very contained.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up - Optimism with Caution
Replies
1
Views
347
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The seasonal mid-December struggles continue, but...
Replies
0
Views
147
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Something big was brewing, all right
Replies
1
Views
235
robo
robo
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Was Friday's big gains the start of the Santa rally, or just a fake out?
Replies
0
Views
126
tsptalk
tsptalk
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker - Buying the December Dips
Replies
0
Views
249
TommyIV
TommyIV
Back
Top