-
-
-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
20% Off Annual Premium Subscriptions!*
Ends Jan 18... Click Here For More Information
* For new or current subscribers -
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
jkenjohnson
Active member
Those kind of strategies are making a lot of money for me in my stock picks.
R u considering buying this small dip?
coolhand
Well-known member
No. I may regret it, but the picture is mixed and I can't confidently jump in here. Much as I'd like to because the Fed pumping is keeping a bid under this market.
jkenjohnson
Active member
coolhand
Well-known member
YW. It can get frustrating. And I'm not bearish because I think higher prices are coming, but we're really due a decent pullback. I missed the run higher last year at the beginning of the year, but was able to catch most of the run after the lows in June of 2012. We'll see how it goes.
clogletn
Member
Thanks for giving us relevant information without all of the drama that some on this board tend too. I greatly appreciate your thoughts on the market overall and also the individual stocks you follow.
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
I agree with CH. Right now all indexes for TSP are topped out (i.e. Slow Stochastic above 90, and MACD in very positive territory). So do expect a pull back and that is when I want to buy in.
I am not seeing a small dip...or at least not small enough for my new strategy. I am wanting to see a drop of SS to 20 and preferably 15. Candle sticks would also need to confirm there is going to be upward movement when the dip happens. Looks like many times when SS gets to 15 or lower, we are bottomed out for the short/mid term.
I am also considering CH's comments about looking at support/ resistance lines but I am not too good at that and need to study methodologies on that a bit more. I think I also should look at liquidity, which CH mentioned.
I have been using 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages as well (--failed to mention that earlier) but I think a 200 day is a good idea. Somewhere I read that when the 50 dips below 200 it is a definite to jump ship---yes that would seem logical :cheesy:. Again, want to go see if the 50 over 200 indicator would have helped in 2008 and 2011, and how much it would have saved.
I also am looking at Bolling Bands but I am no longer using those as a primary for entry/exit... but as confirmation of a signal (up or down) depending on closing price placement on band. I no longer use BB as primary indicator for entry/exit because while it does work, there is just too much time going by between signals and I noticed that many upward movements begin way before the bands start to expand so lose out on too much gain and increase risk on the exit because there is not as much of an increase to risk on exit.
Obviously the biggest thing is to get in the game!!
Sitting on sidelines is tough but needed to study more and set up a new strategy and gain some confidence about it via testing. I'm going to tweek a bit more per above comments, but at this point I've pretty much ready to play again!!! :nuts: Wishing all tsptalk folks good luck and great timing!
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Hi BT! Yes I know....but I'm just cocky enough to think that I can come up with something to beat some of those millions ---
and get some of those greenbacks$$$ in my pocket. Hee hee hee..... 
The market's money is there for the taking---right???.
I am glad to see anyone do good, and I truely do hope everyone on our board can make tons of money using any strategy. I just love this community and I always read everyone's comments---there is so much to learn from this group of bright people.
You are fearless and so positive about investing in this market that your comments can embolden those of us who are uncertain---thanks for that! Sometimes your comments just make me want to jump and put 100% immediately to stocks! And that is because you are right... it is a bull market overall and it will keep going up (with a few pull backs). So for now I am going to try my new strategy (probably also used by millions but not everyone) and see what happens.
FYI - I went for years as a buy and hold and made tons of money. I truely ignored market and let it ride in stocks the entire time. It saw ups and downs and I just did not look at it. However, 2008 kicked my A%&*, and I took notice. So glad to have recovered from those major losses as market has come back up. But I know that buy and hold also means there were times over the past 20+ years where I could have pulled out and saved myself a lot of money and would have been doing even better than i am doing now if I had been actively trading. So 2013 is the year I decided to go for it. Anxious waiting on the sideline for my strategy entry point to kick in. :nuts:
coolhand
Well-known member
Heads Up! The market experienced a moderate pullback on Wednesday so here's what you need to know. Stock allocations across the auto-tracker (Total Tracker) are not going up, they are going down. At the beginning of the week those allocations were sitting at 37.67%. As of yesterday's close total allocations are now at 36.19%. Remember, the market tends to go up when total allocations are below 40%. If we assume the powers that be are still of the mind to support this market over the longer term, it makes sense to buy this weakness, especially if you are underexposed like I am. The question on many of your minds will be "how much weakness will we get"? I cannot be sure. We've had a big run so the big money may be looking to reload and we are still in the weaker part of the yearly market cycle, so depending on your risk tolerance you need to decide how much exposure you want to take. Also consider that we are near the end of the month so if you have IFTs left you can make some phased purchases and not go "all in" just in case we drop further than expected. I am not looking for a ton of weakness here, but I am open to the possibility. The volatility Index (VIX) appears to be turning up too. Futures are moderately lower as I write this, but that could change by the open.
coolhand
Well-known member
There are several gaps on the S&P. To fill the lower ones would require a pretty good correction. Sooner or later that will come, but I'm anticipating the bears will step back in too fast and up we'll go again. I'm thinking a larger correction is still weeks away.
coolhand
Well-known member
It doesn't look like they're going to us much on the downside. I went from 100% G to 25% S, 25% C and 50% G. That's still conservative, but I'm trying to respect seasonality and would prefer to have something left to throw at the market just in case we get another pop lower. This is a strong market so a higher stock allocation is reasonable if one is less risk averse.
coolhand
Well-known member
Quick update on FAX. I was getting a bit bearish on this fund earlier in the month as it wasn't bouncing back the way so many other closed end funds were. But it looks like it may have bottomed out. MACD is slowly climbing higher and RSI, while still a tad negative, looks to be slowly moving higher. The 21 day moving average has flattened out too. I am of the opinion it will continue to appreciate, but it could be a relatively long climb back up the ladder.
FAX is heavily influenced by the Australian Dollar, which got hammered over the past couple of months or so. It too appears to have found a bottom and may be slowing turning back up.
coolhand
Well-known member
Here's what I see right now. Liquidity remains at very high levels. The Top 50 remain in about the same stock allocation they had at the beginning of the week, which is about 88% stocks. That's bullish in my eyes. The Total Tracker shows stock allocations modestly falling. That's bullish too. Our sentiment survey got more bullish. I do have to allow that the big money needs to reload at some point, but that doesn't mean the market has to fall apart. Just correct a little. The data I'm looking at suggests this weakness isn't going to last. I may add a bit more exposure to stocks today.
Your update on FAX was again very timely for me CH, as I also was again having grave doubts about this investment and was considering a jump out at the next bump up. Your new charts are quite encouraging ! I think I'll stick with it for a while longer. Please continue to keep us posted on FAX analysis.
Thanks again,
Best regards.
P.S. Has INTC made it to your watch list yet?
Thanks again,
Best regards.
P.S. Has INTC made it to your watch list yet?
Last edited:
coolhand
Well-known member
Hi tc5. So far this year, FAX is one of the few picks that I've had that turned lower on me in a big way. I am still relatively confident it comes back and intend to hold my position in it.
Intel is indeed on my watch list.
It seems to be turning now and in my premium analysis this week I noted the green volume bars and thought MACD and RSI were trying to turn back up. But MACD has not had a positive signal cross as yet and RSI remains on the weak side. My buy under price is $22 as fair valuation is only in the $25 area and I'd prefer to buy it at more of a discount to fair valuation. There is reason to be cautious on this stock.
Intel is one of 30 companies that comprise the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. That index has been under pressure the past couple of weeks or so. MACD had a negative signal cross and is pointing lower, while RSI is now negative and also pointing lower. Intel doesn't necessarily have to drop because SOX is falling, but it's a real possibility. I see support for SOX around the 450 area should it continue to fall.
I also think the market in general is poised to see more backing and filling, which means many stocks may see more selling pressure in the short term. Sentiment is still fairly supportive of the market, so in spite of some indicators turning down right now, I'm still thinking the downside will be limited. There's also some market moving reports on tap this week, not to mention the FOMC announcement. It could get interesting this week.
coolhand
Well-known member
Update on FAX. The fund is hitting fresh lows today. I had hoped it would hold above the $6.00 area, but it's already down almost 2.6% today at $5.88. Bonds are somewhat "iffy" in today's market given currency fluctuations and the expectation that rates will rise in the future. I think they should still be part of a diversified portfolio, but in the case of FAX the losses "may" go deeper than some may find comfortable. As such you may want to consider selling your position in FAX. I do not plan to sell mine as it is only about 3% of my total portfolio and the dividends it produces go towards other purchases. This is part of my portfolio management style. It is why I diversify my portfolio and not hold more than a 5% position in anything. Of course that also depends on how much one has to work with.
After rising for more than a month, MACD is turning down and looks to be triggering a negative signal line cross. RSI is weak after turning lower more than a week ago. The chart suggests lower prices are coming.
After rising for more than a month, MACD is turning down and looks to be triggering a negative signal line cross. RSI is weak after turning lower more than a week ago. The chart suggests lower prices are coming.
Hi CH-
I was watching this disaster as it was dropping on Monday and bailed out completely as soon as it broke $6.00, then plowed everything into PDI which I had been watching for a while. This fund seems to be a bit more sound with a decent monthly dividend. Will take a while to recover what I lost on FAX, but I already feel better !! Do you have any perspective on PDI ??
Thanks again for your insight, all of your posts are truly enjoyable.
tc5
I was watching this disaster as it was dropping on Monday and bailed out completely as soon as it broke $6.00, then plowed everything into PDI which I had been watching for a while. This fund seems to be a bit more sound with a decent monthly dividend. Will take a while to recover what I lost on FAX, but I already feel better !! Do you have any perspective on PDI ??
Thanks again for your insight, all of your posts are truly enjoyable.
tc5
Similar threads
- Article
