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Preliminary reading on the auto-tracker signals shows the Total Tracker with a total stock allocation of just 40.37%. That's as of Wednesday's close. We're slowly reigning in our exposure. Statistically when that number gets below 40% the market tends to go up on a week over week basis. Between that low number and liquidity this market could continue to defy gravity.
"Defy gravity". That's the best term I've heard for this market all day! :laugh:
Most of us realize that liquidity is boosting this market, but what does that look like on a chart? I have two charts shown below. The upper chart shows what liquidity has been doing in general. On the left of the liquidity chart are percentage readings. There is a zero line in the middle. The upper or positive half shows liquidity in "expansion". Below the zero line is liquidity in "contraction". Don't ask me what the values of liquidity are because I don't know exactly. I'm just showing direction and relative strength. The chart below is the S&P 500. Between the two charts I'm showing how liquidity has affected price on the S&P 500 since the beginning of the year.
View attachment 24610
Nice charts, but how does one decide to get in or our based on "liquidity". After one day up or down? Two days? After the previous low or high is taken out? We want more CH, we want more!!!![]()
Coolhand...Most of us realize that liquidity is boosting this market, but what does that look like on a chart? I have two charts shown below. The upper chart shows what liquidity has been doing in general. On the left of the liquidity chart are percentage readings. There is a zero line in the middle. The upper or positive half shows liquidity in "expansion". Below the zero line is liquidity in "contraction". Don't ask me what the values of liquidity are because I don't know exactly. I'm just showing direction and relative strength. The chart below is the S&P 500. Between the two charts I'm showing how liquidity has affected price on the S&P 500 since the beginning of the year.
View attachment 24610
CH, Since liquidity appears to be hitting the 90 level, would you expect a topping and possible contraction and corresponding Market decline? But Ben has said he will continue the pumping ?? Thanks..
Hi Coolhand,
I have been in G for some time now. I decided my old strategy needed to be tweeked. I have been studying the Indices underlying the TSP funds and have decided to start using the following strategy to time market entry and exits. Will wait for slow stochastic ( SS) to dip below 20 and but preferably to 15 to enter market, stay in until SS reaches at least 90 and then exit but only exit when MACD crosses signal line ... or just before that point if it looks like it is going to turn down ..i.e. like at a high point of a double camel hump on the zero baseline. Also looking at telltale candle patterns for confirmation. Trying to stick to a simple strategy and follow through on strategy. I have tried to test this back a year and it looks to be a good strategy. Will likely test it back on DWCPF in 2011 and 2008 major drops to see if the exit strategy would have worked to avoid major losses.
There are so many methods and indicators that could be used for a strategy, but is there any indicator or factor that pops out as Something that I might additionally want to consider? Thx DB Annie![]()
Nice charts CH... wish I would have known about the reversal of liquidity at the end of June... maybe my "system" wouldn't have kept me short for so long...
Where did you get it?