coolhand's Account Talk

My current all stock allocation is decidedly contrarian as sentiment supports it.
Going against the grain is tough, but usually pays off. Nice job!

Did you notice that the new for 2009 sentiment survey system is up 5.5% this year? I lost faith in '08, but it may be time to pay attention again. You nailed it.
 
Going against the grain is tough, but usually pays off. Nice job!

Did you notice that the new for 2009 sentiment survey system is up 5.5% this year? I lost faith in '08, but it may be time to pay attention again. You nailed it.

I'm aware of it, and have been using it as part of my strategy. Mark Young has commented more than once that tweaking this sentiment gauge was a good thing. It's a very meaningful tool when optimized for performance.
 
Looking for higher prices this week. That's not being greedy, that's just playing the trend and current set-up. The MBs around the web seem to expect a pullback to start the week, but that's the obvious play. There are rapidly improving technicals and breadth is bullish. This downtrend appears to be done for now, but it probably won't last too long. If we view the stimulus package as a buy the rumor event, then we should push higher until it's passed. Not sure when that might be. Probably sometime this week. I'll be a seller more than likely if we have some follow-thru to the upside to start the week.

Let the games begin. :cool:
 
The futures tonight suggest some pullback, but the spx is expected to stay above the 20 sma. A little pullback is good, becasue I would like to enter today. Looking for a run to the downtrend line, a little above spx 900

Nice call on your sentiment entry point last week. I tend to look at technicals and ignore sentiment, but contrarian was right on.
 
The futures tonight suggest some pullback, but the spx is expected to stay above the 20 sma. A little pullback is good, becasue I would like to enter today. Looking for a run to the downtrend line, a little above spx 900

Nice call on your sentiment entry point last week. I tend to look at technicals and ignore sentiment, but contrarian was right on.

Thanks for the thumbs up. :) I think it's safe to make a play here if one can get a pullback. That's the short term view. Longer term we may be in an Intermediate Term uptrend, which would last approximately 2 months; even if we are in a sell the news situation with respect to the bailout package. It's times like this I wish I had a couple more IFTs in my back pocket.

BTW, your technical analysis is very good.
 
Coolhand and Uptrend,
In the last couple of posts, you had a very useful exchange of ideas. Thank you!
Do you both agree that if Geithner announces the details of the "Bad Bank" at 11:00 a.m. tomorrow, and the Congress will be presenting the bail-out Bill next week for The President's signature, both of these actions will most likely be a "Sell the news" situation?Tia.
 
Coolhand and Uptrend,
In the last couple of posts, you had a very useful exchange of ideas. Thank you!
Do you both agree that if Geithner announces the details of the "Bad Bank" at 11:00 a.m. tomorrow, and the Congress will be presenting the bail-out Bill next week for The President's signature, both of these actions will most likely be a "Sell the news" situation?Tia.

The market has been reacting to these events with a "buy the rumor, sell the news" mindset for awhile. That does not mean it will happen again. Not everyone thinks the bailout package or bad bank fix is a bad thing. I prefer to not have an opinion on that aspect of it though. That's why I'm watching sentiment. My source thinks there's a good chance for more upside in the next few weeks, so I do place a lot of faith in that advice, otherwise why bother paying for someone's opinion. Remember, my moves are based largely from a paid-for service. I do have to apply that opinion to my TSP moves however.

One of the biggest problems we all face is trusting any given source of information. Often, the reason for a lack of trust is not understanding the reasons behind the logic being applied. I understand everything I'm being advised on, along with the understanding that market "expectations" may not result in market "reality". This concept holds true for any type of market analysis one follows.
 
Focus on Capitol Hill
Last Update: 09-Feb-09 08:53 ET

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketSnapshot/PageOne.htm

There was plenty of hopeful anticipation Friday about the financial sector recovery plan that was to be announced today by Treasury Secretary Geithner. That announcement, though, has been shelved until Tuesday to allow lawmakers to give their undivided attention to the economic stimulus plan so that the Senate can have a formal vote on the plan tomorrow.

As a result, there has been a bit of an anti-climactic release in the futures market, which is signaling a lower start for the major indices. The S&P 500 is expected to start the day down about 0.4%.

The pullback is understandable. A 5% gain in the S&P last week was enough to prompt some profit taking in its own right.

A financial sector recovery plan that has been delayed a day, as opposed to postponed indefinitely, shouldn't ruffle too many feathers, which is to say any pullback that might occur should be orderly in nature.

The corporate news flow is relatively light this morning, mostly because there haven't been as many companies reporting earnings.

Whirlpool (WHR), Hasbro (HAS), and NYSE Euronext (NYX) have led the list of reporters and each of these companies has come up short of consensus estimates.

Their misses are not entirely surprising given the tenor of this reporting season, which has made it clear that earnings estimates for most companies still haven't come down far enough to reflect the harsh realities of the current economic environment.

According to Thomson Reuters, the estimated Q4 growth rate now stands at -40.6% (the lowest since it started tracking in 1998) versus -1.2% when the year began.

Separately, Bloomberg.com is reporting General Motors (GM) and Chrysler may be forced into bankruptcy to protect the interests of U.S. taxpayers. Both companies face a deadline next week to present a plan that demonstrates how the actions they have taken (and will take) since receiving the taxpayer aid will allow them to repay that loan.

For now, the market's focus rests on the developments on Capitol Hill. The financial sector recovery plan appears to be done (it's just a matter of releasing the details). The stimulus bill, however, remains open to political debate that could threaten the Presidents Day deadline set by President Obama.

One way or another, this promises to be a week where politics and capital markets collide. Whether any damage is done lies in the details.
 
CH, went in today 100S expecting a pullback before a move to 900. I guess I missed that bus. Let's hope the market still has some legs. I do like the rumor the newest version of the bank plan will use investors like hedge funds. It may make the market feel better but I'm not real sure the banks are going to jump on selling. It will depend on price:

"WASHINGTON (AP) -- Investors want the Obama administration to sweeten the deal before they agree to buy risky debt from U.S. banks as part of the government's retooled program to rescue the ailing financial industry.

The administration is expected to announce Tuesday that the government's latest bailout strategy will be enticing big investors to buy more than $1 trillion in troubled assets from the banks. The hope is that, free from the drag of subprime mortgage debt and other bad investments, banks will be more likely to start lending money again and the economy will rebound.
Exactly how the administration plans to persuade hedge funds, insurance companies and private equity firms to buy into some of the world's riskiest investments remains unclear. But investors said Monday they were unlikely to buy into the idea unless the government puts up a lot of the money and promises to absorb a lot of the losses if things go badly.
"The first loss has got to be the government's," said Wall Street veteran Muriel Siebert, who runs the brokerage Muriel Siebert & Co. "Maybe the first 25 percent of losses. We don't know what's in some of those bonds."
Billionaire Wilbur Ross, who runs the private equity firm WL Ross & Co., said investors want to know how much risk the government will accept if the investments go sour, and how much money the government is willing to put up -- likely in the way of low-interest loans.
"And any sort of financing is something I would be interested in," said Jeffrey Gundlach, chief investment officer of Los Angeles-based money management firm The TCW Group. "There are distressed assets that I would like to buy now but I can hardly get anyone to lend me any money in the current environment."
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will unveil the program in a speech on Tuesday at the Treasury Department. The partnership with the private investors would be just one element of a major overhaul of the troubled bailout program, which has come under heavy criticism for distributing billions of dollars with few requirements on how banks would use the money."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bailout-Take-2-Investors-want-apf-14302237.html
 
The market looks to be continuing it's test of both resistance and support within the current wedge. Volume came in to the downside after 1100, so that's not a good thing. But it looks like small caps are still leading large caps. We seem to have leveled off somewhat at about 840 SPX. If we can reverse here this afternoon, the bullish case might still be intact. If not, I may have to quickly rethink my position. Very tough market.
 
I'm hearing a number of savvy traders giving the thumbs up to the freestockcharts website. It provides real time trading too. Check it out!
 
Just like in Washington DC, where our politicians are bickering about the "stimulus" package, the market decided to have its own say yesterday. Word is TG wanted to get Capital Hill's attention to ensure the package passes and the markets helped him in that quest.

Volume says to look lower in the short term, but this thing can still turn on a dime. Sentiment is swinging back and forth, although we still have ardent bears out there who are looking only in one direction.

I'm just looking to make money and won't trade a long term position. Not my style.
 
This may or may not have been discussed elsewhere on the MB, but I know it hasn't been getting much attention overall in the news and that's the possibility of changing the Mark to Market accounting practice. Here's a short note about it last week:

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDFjZTliZmY1NmNmMmZjMDgwNWE1YmVjOWUzNGE0Y2E=

This could be just one more catalyst to boost the market if it is changed, but that still remains to be seen if it will in fact happen.
 
This may or may not have been discussed elsewhere on the MB, but I know it hasn't been getting much attention overall in the news and that's the possibility of changing the Mark to Market accounting practice.

It would allow the banks to leverage out even more. Isn't the 100 to 1 leverage that got them into the mess. This is like giving a gambler a new Mastercard gold gift card.:worried:
 
This may or may not have been discussed elsewhere on the MB, but I know it hasn't been getting much attention overall in the news and that's the possibility of changing the Mark to Market accounting practice. Here's a short note about it last week:

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDFjZTliZmY1NmNmMmZjMDgwNWE1YmVjOWUzNGE0Y2E=

This could be just one more catalyst to boost the market if it is changed, but that still remains to be seen if it will in fact happen.

I disagree coolhand. They haven't been doing real mark to market anyway. This is just another stick save idea.
 
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