coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

What comes after silly? Insane? :smile:

I've been saying for a few weeks now that this market could get silly to the upside and that even the bulls may be shaking their heads at some point. I saw this coming, though I don't make predictions. I just share my expectations based on what I'm looking at. My perspective is shaped by more than just the elements you read in my commentary.

So, just when many were thinking market exhaustion, boom!; we get another push to the upside.




Price on the DWCPF hit and closed at another all-time high today. And momentum is flat. But price is what matters most. Notice how long now that RSI has been buried in overbought territory. The S&P rallied as well, but did not hit a new high. However, it's not far from it. Is momentum starting to turn back up? What if it does? How many points might that be good for? I'm just musing. As long as the DWCPF continues to fly, the S&P, while lagging, will likely follow.



Cumulative breadth gave us another all-time high as well. Probably one of the most impressive ramps I've seen on this chart.

I still see no reason to get bearish. Someone wants this market higher and NAAIM knew it.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The market started out hot at the open, but peaked after an hour and began to slowly give back its gains all the way into the close. But it was still a mixed close with the DWCPF closing positive, while the S&P had a negative close. If this is what selling pressure looks like, the bulls will take it.




No serious damage to the charts, but the S&P is the decidedly weaker index. And it isn't in bad shape to this point at all. Momentum has turned down on both charts.



Cumulative breadth was weak again, but remains bulish.

So, it appears we're seeing a rough patch in the market that's been controlled (so far). With a bullish NAAIM reading from late last week, I don't expect to see much downside damage. In fact, risk does still remain to the upside.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The market closed mixed on the week last week, with the S fund up moderately and the C fund down moderately. What is notable is that the bears did not take advantage of the somewhat flat trading environment.




Friday saw the S&P and DWCPF close on a down note, but the charts remain bullish. Momentum has actually gone negative on the S&P, while flat on the DWCPF.



Cumulative breadth dipped Friday, but no one can deny the bullish nature of this chart.

The TSP Talk sentiment came in bullish once more, but not overly so. NAAIM remained bulled up for 5 weeks straight.

I see nothing of significance in the readings to suggest the bull party is rolling over. I remain bullish.

 

[Chas]

CH,
Thanks for the charts and your insight. A daily read.

Same here CH; a daily read for me as well. thanks for the insight.

 

[nasa1974]

CH,
Thanks for the charts and your insight. A daily read.

 

[coolhand]

Thursday's trading saw small caps snap back from Wednesday losses to post solid gains. They didn't quite erase all of the losses, but they did get most of it back. The S&P 500 struggled all day and ended the session near the neutral line.




Both charts remain bullish. Upside momentum has fallen off, but price remains not far off its peak.



Cumulative breadth continues to impress and remains bullish.

NAAIM came in solidly bullish for the 5th week in a row. Remember, this is smart money. When they are leaning hard in a given direction you don't want to go the other way (generally). I find this group of money managers to be very consistent overall in their weekly positioning (high accuracy).

So, now that NAAIM has given us a fresh (bullish) reading, I can confidently remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

NAAIM came in unchanged. That means they remained very bullish. I expect that once the current consolidation period is over the market will likely move to new highs.

 

[coolhand]

The market finally saw some selling today, which was needed to consolidate gains and work off the overbought nature of some parts of the market.




No technical damage yet, and we can see that RSI is still overbought on the DWCPF, but any more selling will likely take the DWCPF out of overbought territory. Momentum turned down, but remains bullish for now.



Cumulative breadth dipped, but only a bit. It still remains very bullish.

We get a fresh NAAIM reading tomorrow. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Back on November 16th I said...

"I have a hunch that this market could get silly to the upside. I can't predict it, but I would not be surprised with a rally that has even the bulls shaking their heads. I'm looking forward to seeing how this actually plays out."

Today, we got yet another rally on top of the gains over the past 3 plus weeks. Admittedly, the DWCPF has been outpacing the S&P 500 during this time, but up is up.




That ramp from early November on the DWCPF is certainly impressive. So is the S&P, but it doesn't sport as much gain as the DWCPF. Momentum remains bullish. Remember when I said not to get too concerned about the DWCPF getting overbought? It's now been more than 2 weeks since it entered overbought territory.



That's quite a ramp on the NYAD too. It's about as a bullish as I've ever seen it.

I know it's hard to believe this market, but the market environment supports what we are seeing. Now we know why NAAIM got bullish. And this is not unusual for this group of money managers.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

It was a lackluster trading today that resulted in mixed close among the indexes.




The S&P fell modestly, while the DWCPF eked out a gain.



Breadth fell modestly, but obviously remains very bullish.

I'll keep it shorter than usual tonight. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Okay, we are now officially in silly territory. I'm calling it. More so for the DWCPF than the S&P, but cumulative breadth is silly too.

If you are long, you are definitely liking this silly market. :smile:




Price on the DWCPF continues to impress to the upside. I said I wasn't worried about the overbought RSI and you can see why. Price on the S&P is also rising, but not yet overbought. That's another reason I'm not worried about RSI on the DWCPF, because the DWCPF is not a visible index to most folks unless you're a TSP investor.



Cumulative breadth is showing you why price is rising (in a big way). It remains quite bullish.

So, heading into next week we have very strong cumulative breadth, rising price and momentum and bullish smart money. I like that combination.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

While the market closed off its highs of the day, it was still an overall positive day on balance.




Price on the S&P 500 closed near neutral on the day, but price on the DWCPF was up almost 1%. We aren't off to the races, but the trend remains to the upside.



Cumulative breadth continues to rise and remains bullish.

NAAIM was relatively unchanged on the day and remains very bullish.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Not much change to NAAIM today. It remains very bullish. This is NOT a contrarian indicator.

 

[coolhand]

The market gave us a mixed day today, with the S&P advancing modestly while the DWCPF pulled back modestly.




The S&P 500 hit another fresh high on average volume. Momentum is rising modestly (just like price). The DWCPF is still overbought based on its relative strength indicator. I am not concerned with that given we are in a strong bull heading into bullish seasonality.



Breadth continued to power high and remains quite bullish.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

It didn't take long for the market to forget Friday's pullback as the major averages started the new week strong. The market gave back some its gains by the close, but closing gains were not insignificant.




The S&P 500 hit a fresh high, while the DWCPF closed near its previous peak.



Cumulative breadth remains bullish.

Nothing has changed. It is obvious that this is a strong bull right now. It is very easy to expect a buying opportunity may come at any time, but bull markets can go further and longer at times than most traders expect. I'm not saying that's what is going to happen here, but it might.

I remain bullish.

 

[nasa1974]

I would be happy if the market takes a little breather this week. Then I'm off the lily pad and back into the "S" fund.

Good luck everybody. I expect another surge once the vaccines get approval for distribution.

 

[coolhand]

The market took a breather today. It was overdue on the DWCPF in particular.




Price on both charts were down moderately. Volume was elevated. RSI was overbought on the DWCPF and remains overbought even after today's selling. We could see more selling in the short term before a bottom. Looking at the DWCPF we can see that bottoms have been happening quickly the past few weeks.



Cumulative breadth dipped, but remains bullish.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Thing that scares the heck out of me is the lack of anything solid under "Silly markets"! oh well, Best of luck to us all!

I have spent many years on an educational journey into the monetary system. I think it would be fair for me to say that I'm not so sure there has ever been anything "solid". It's all smoke and mirrors.

 

[Scout333]

Thing that scares the heck out of me is the lack of anything solid under "Silly markets"! oh well, Best of luck to us all!

 

[ALRetiree]

Let’s hope for the best!