coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

I'm sorry, but I have to call this pennant pattern a fade pattern. The boys are going to wake up one of these days in the near future and blow out all the stops, making a retest 'inevitable'. Or at least it will appear inevitable. I have to believe the Smart Money is looking to go long here with a bailout almost sure to happen on the horizon.

SKF is up against resistance after filling the gap and appears ST overbought. There's a strong following in the financials as everyone is looking to plow in on the short side again, but I think the smart money is moving to other avenues at this point as that party is being put on hold for the time being.

I think this market is going to have to move higher without the financials this time, but any boost from financials is going to help. The whole world is geared up for a break to the downside here but this time is not different when folks say they will buy the retest. The money won't come into stocks until we move higher because it will be 'safer then'.

I don't know. I see that uptrend line since Nov and anyone who bought around there in a few ETF's have nice profits on hand right now.

Now that's the kind of analysis I like best. The boys will exploit the sentiment big time, because "everyone knows" the bailout package is doomed to fail.

It helps to be able to think like a crook at times.

We'll see how it all plays out, but I'm sticking with my plan for now.

 

[coolhand]

Volume is coming in to the upside. I think the bears may have missed their chance to probe lower levels for the short term, but we'll see.

Retest of 850 getting close.

 

[turbo23dog]

Its 1:22pm and that 850 level is still hanging tough. My gut is telling me a run up is coming - I'm still on the fence waiting to see what shakes out by tomorrow.

 

[Birchtree]

The more chaos yields to orderliness, the more investors will emerge from their holes and return to the capital markets and the stock market. The talk over suspending mark to market accounting may be a catalyst for further advances.

 

[Warrenlm]

Forbes usually seems like a lone voice in the wilderness....who else is talking about it?

" The talk over suspending mark to market accounting may be a catalyst for further advances. "

 

[Birchtree]

Senator Chris Dodd said he is studying the problem for some changes to implement - they could easily have a six month moratorium to help out the banks if they plan to sell any of these toxic assets to the Fed or TARP.

 

[poolman]

Volume is coming in to the upside. I think the bears may have missed their chance to probe lower levels for the short term, but we'll see.

Retest of 850 getting close.

Nice Call thus far Coolhand,

Honestly, I need to see what tomorrow brings. You called it right getting in to the market. Now can we get out and be safe ?:blink:

 

[Bullitt]

I think the bears may have missed their chance to probe lower levels for the short term, but we'll see.

Retest of 850 getting close.

CSCO's 'bad earnings' couldn't take it down today. What's it going to take? I think the bearish case is running thin here even with the sentiment survey saying 11% Bulls, 56% Bears.

 

[coolhand]

Nice Call thus far Coolhand,

Honestly, I need to see what tomorrow brings. You called it right getting in to the market. Now can we get out and be safe ?:blink:

Obviously, we still have some more work to do. We didn't close above 850ish and we only bounced off it when we tried. But by the same token, the bears have not been able to take it down either. I was expecting a penetration of 800 a few days ago, but not now. At least not any time soon. But that's just my expectation based on the action over the last few days.

I reserve the right to change my mind at any time. :laugh:

But for now, I'm bullish.

 

[poolman]

Obviously, we still have some more work to do. We didn't close above 850ish and we only bounced off it when we tried. But by the same token, the bears have not been able to take it down either. I was expecting a penetration of 800 a few days ago, but not now. At least not any time soon. But that's just my expectation based on the action over the last few days.

I reserve the right to change my mind at any time. :laugh:

But for now, I'm bullish.

I hear that,

Very Nice Call Still.

Market's like to do the opposite to you all the time.

 

[coolhand]

CSCO's 'bad earnings' couldn't take it down today. What's it going to take? I think the bearish case is running thin here even with the sentiment survey saying 11% Bulls, 56% Bears.

I have to agree. If we close above 850 soon, we'll probably see more volume to the upside as "confirmation" of the move occurs. Especially if it sticks for a couple of days.

The real test will probably not occur till next week, unless tomorrow rips it to the upside.

 

[robo]

CSCO's 'bad earnings' couldn't take it down today. What's it going to take? I think the bearish case is running thin here even with the sentiment survey saying 11% Bulls, 56% Bears.

Bullitt,

I think you are correct. The Bears are done in the short-term come Monday anyway. They can't fight the Moon Beams Brother.

Market conditions are improving - we are at a tipping point and the negative indicators have significantly improved. However, positives are not yet in place, but are coming Bullitt and maybe next week. The Stars and the plants say it's so!

You can't fight the Beams......

You have to "go with the flow’ of astro-energy and BUY - or be long by the Lunar Eclipse (9:50amEST) at the OPEN around Monday. We could still sell-off on bad news tomorrow or over the weekend and have a large down Gap down Monday - but don't fight the Stars.... The rally is coming and it could be well over 10%...... Heck - we could also just rally from here. Still a coin toss until Monday because the crooks are still in play even with the moon beams. Now, I could be wrong here, but it's how I'm playing it!

It's in the Stars not the charts. I have seen the light Bullitt.... and we also know that the VTM is indicating price momentum and is changing from down to up, and when this happens, we can expect at least a 10% rally from current levels. ha.....


Take care!

Robo


Remember Bullitt -FEB 9 = Lunar Eclipse 9:40 A.M. just after NYSE Opens Monday = Could be some very powerful emotional cross-currents, and maybe the lows for awhile!

Rally Time!

 

[nasa1974]

I have to agree. If we close above 850 soon, we'll probably see more volume to the upside as "confirmation" of the move occurs. Especially if it sticks for a couple of days.

The real test will probably not occur till next week, unless tomorrow rips it to the upside.

Coolhand, My fear is that we all jump into this potential rally (just like the bailout) and things go sour towads the end of next week. We all jump back to G for the rest of the month. Now we are out of moves and the true rally starts the middle of the third week. We miss out on huge profits.

Wait a minute I just woke up screaming it was all a bad dream.

 

[Bullitt]

There's no such thing as a sure thing. Nobody said TSP was a daytrading mechanism and just because some guy on Youtube is buying and dumping 50,000 shares of a stock/ETF just to make $500 doesn't mean it's the right thing to do.

Robo- I saw some other Astronomy website and the guy was calling for a buy somewhere around Feb 9th. His last buy was in 2003. I don't know. We're on a thin line here. Stops are getting blown out on the SDS types at 855-860 but first we have to run the stops at 820 in order for more pile on.

What was up with the volume in financials today?

 

[coolhand]

Coolhand, My fear is that we all jump into this potential rally (just like the bailout) and things go sour towads the end of next week. We all jump back to G for the rest of the month. Now we are out of moves and the true rally starts the middle of the third week. We miss out on huge profits.

Wait a minute I just woke up screaming it was all a bad dream.

In retrospect I realize that two of the moves that I made in recent months (jumping in at the beginning of October for the bailout vote) and then again for inauguration day were not contrarian moves. I got burned both times as did others. It was easy pickings for da boyz. :notrust:

My current all stock allocation is decidedly contrarian as sentiment supports it. I am also making this move mindful that it's the beginning of the month and I may have to ride this snake for a little while. I'm okay with that as well as the risk that goes along with my move.

I am not posting on this board to convince anyone of what they should be doing with their accounts. I am only trying provide another perspective.

 

[XL-entLady]

I am not posting on this board to convince anyone of what they should be doing with their accounts. I am only trying provide another perspective.

And we appreciate it! Your informed and well expressed views are always welcomed.

Lady

 

[justbizness45]

Well said Lady. JB45

 

[CapeChem]

One would think that while reading the different opinions on this MB that all that info would jumble up the decision making process, however I feel it provides clarity. Running brown nasty water through a filter and out comes clear water on the otherside. ......my thoughts being the brown nasty waters of course

 

[airlift]

Coolhand,
I have great respect for the all of the colleagues here. I think you are on the right track for a big rally very soon (perhaps starting today or Monday). There are, of course, divergent opinions, but the massive liquidity to be approved and the potential "bad bank" resolution that seems to be coming have raised speculative and hopeful expectations that seasonality, liquidity, and "don't fight the FED" is preventing any significant breakdown. (only my opinion). Comparing the economic numbers in relative terms with 1933 and 1974, CNBC traders and analysts appear to believe that this is a rally coming real soon. Most economists, and also Mr. Jack Welch, on CNBC this morning, seem to think that the size of the bailout infusion will most likely stem a worse crisis, by moving money and credit into the economy (while taking other corrective measures) even though full economic recovery might well take years. Extraordinary care, however, should not be ignored! Good Day.

 

[coolhand]

Coolhand,
I have great respect for the all of the colleagues here. I think you are on the right track for a big rally very soon (perhaps starting today or Monday). There are, of course, divergent opinions, but the massive liquidity to be approved and the potential "bad bank" resolution that seems to be coming have raised speculative and hopeful expectations that seasonality, liquidity, and "don't fight the FED" is preventing any significant breakdown. (only my opinion). Comparing the economic numbers in relative terms with 1933 and 1974, CNBC traders and analysts appear to believe that this is a rally coming real soon. Most economists, and also Mr. Jack Welch, on CNBC this morning, seem to think that the size of the bailout infusion will most likely stem a worse crisis, by moving money and credit into the economy (while taking other corrective measures) even though full economic recovery might well take years. Extraordinary care, however, should not be ignored! Good Day.

Good post. I'd add to your rep, but it won't let me. Good luck on whatever you decide to do.