coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

After spending the first hour or so in positive territory, the market took a quick nose dive into negative territory. The selling didn't last long at all and the buyers stepped in and slowly took the market back near or above the neutral line by the close.




You can see the long tails on the candlesticks. Price remains near the top on both charts.



Breadth dipped a bit today, but remains bullish.

Well, as odd and a bit concerning as the fast sell-off today was, the market came back. This is a strong bull. I remain bullish.

 

[Scout333]

Thanks for the voice of reason Cool! I am a nervous investor and tend to jump too soon. Usually leave money on the table going in and getting out!:smile:

 

[coolhand]

The bulls had another good week, last week, tacking on almost 1.9% on both the S&P and DWCPF indexes.




Friday saw another mixed day, with the S&P dipping and the DWCPF rising. Both charts remain bullish with price hovering near its all-time high.



Cumulative breadth rose modestly on Friday.

The TSP Talk sentiment survey came in less bullish, but still bullish heading into the new week. NAAIM is flat out bullish.

Market character has not changed. The bull market continues to defy expectations for many traders and investors. While I am bullish, I am not complacent. Market character can change very quickly and if that change is more than short term, it needs to be recognized quickly or suffer the consequences. That's much easier said than done; especially for TSP investors who don't have much flexibility.

I am wary of this market now, but as long as NAAIM remains bullish along with the indicators, I see little reason to get bearish. That does not mean taking unnecessary risk, but that varies from one person to another. It could mean being all-in for one person and partially in for another or not in at all. I provide my perspective and narrative to help you in your own personal decision making. Currently, I think risk is rising, but that does not mean the market will change. It just means the chances of more than token selling pressure is increasing. Serious selling pressure may or may not manifest. That's why I am watching my indicators.

I remain bullish. Good luck everyone!!

 

[coolhand]

Good discussion. As I said last week, prior the latest NAAIM reading, I am wary of this market now that a new admin is in place. I may be bullish, but I'm not married to my sentiment. That's the key. Be flexible folks. NAAIM is not perfect, but it has a great track record for buy and holders as well as timers if you pay attention to your indicators. I have also said that I keep myself plugged into other elements that can affect the financial markets that I do not discuss on the board.

So, yes I'm bullish, but looking for signs of potential trouble. We may or may not see it, but I think risk is rising just the same.

 

[flalaw97]

Tom McClellan commentary on how to use the NAAIM survey data. Seems to me (from staring at his charts) that it's more useful in identifying bottoms than tops. Very high reading like this weeks survey could be an early warning sign....

https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/looking_deeper_at_the_naaim_survey_data/

I have to agree that it doesn't seem like a very high reading for the "most bearish" corresponds that closely with a top. There are only three other days the most bearish reading has been at 75 or higher - all in 2017 (9/27/17; 10/4/17; and 12/13/17) and the S fund rose from $46.00 to $46.75 to $47.90 on those days. The S fund continued to rise and peaked at $54.68 8/31/18 and didn't go below $46.00 until December 2018, a year after the very high NAAIM bearish mark of 75. I am sticking with the "smart" money for a bit longer. Good luck to all.

 

[amoeba]

Don't know when, but a substantial pullback is probably right around the corner.

absolutely...you don't have to capture every dollar by trying to pick the top...no one ever lost money taking a profit...seeya in mid February.

Sent from my SM-A115U using Tapatalk

 

[joblin20]

Tom McClellan commentary on how to use the NAAIM survey data. Seems to me (from staring at his charts) that it's more useful in identifying bottoms than tops. Very high reading like this weeks survey could be an early warning sign....

https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/looking_deeper_at_the_naaim_survey_data/

Don't know when, but a substantial pullback is probably right around the corner.

 

[Tsunami]

Tom McClellan commentary on how to use the NAAIM survey data. Seems to me (from staring at his charts) that it's more useful in identifying bottoms than tops. Very high reading like this weeks survey could be an early warning sign....

https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/looking_deeper_at_the_naaim_survey_data/

 

[coolhand]

The market took a bit of a breather today.




Price didn't move all that much on either chart. Momentum remains rather neutral, but price remains near the top of the peak.



Cumulative breadth dipped, but remains bullish. In fact, it has been bullish since early November.

The big news is that NAAIM got even more bullish. These money managers are showing no sign of concern as yet.

So, we have a market that is largely defying gravity and smart money that believes there is more fuel for additional gains.

I won't bet against the smart money. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

NAAIM is now more bullish than I've ever seen them. Looks like the bull party continues for now.

 

[coolhand]

And just like that both charts are sporting fresh closing all-time highs.




Yes, the charts certainly remain bullish. The bull is still kicking pretty hard. Momentum is hinting at turning back up (it was rather neutral).



Cumulative breadth has also hit another all-time high and remains bullish.

Has anything changed? Not so you'd notice by the charts, but a new administration has now taken over. That does not make me comfortable as markets sometimes get spooked while changes of all kinds are thrown around by those newly in charge. It's really just something to be aware of at this point. I'll be paying close attention to any signs of potential trouble, bull market or no market, in the days and weeks ahead.

Let's see where NAAIM is tomorrow. Potential trouble doesn't have to manifest immediately.

I remain bullish, but wary.

 

[coolhand]

The new trading week started off positive, reversing the weakness we saw at the end of last week.




Both charts remain in good shape overall. Momentum has stalled, but price remains not far from the top on both charts.



Cumulative breadth ticked higher and that keeps the chart in a bullish configuration.

So far, there is no hint of any serious issues with the market (aside from being at all-time highs). The smart money was bulled up again last week, so I'm not anticipating any surprises, but headline news can change that if the powers that be wish to shake things up. Let's see how the rest of the week goes.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The market closed mixed on the week, last week. The S fund posted a decent gain, while the C fund posted a sizable loss.




We can still see that the S&P is struggling to maintain altitude, but it is still a bullish chart with price not all that far from the peak. The DWCPF dipped Friday (as did the S&P), but price remains much closer to its peak. Momentum is turned down a bit on both charts. All in all, technical damage is quite contained to this point.

However, we have a week coming up that promises to have potentially market moving headlines. That doesn't mean it's
bullish or bearish, just potentially market moving in one direction or the other (or both).



Cumulative breadth dipped on Friday, but the signal remains bullish.

TSP Talk sentiment came in pretty bulled again, but the smart money is also bulled up. This is bullish overall.

I remain bullish, but will be watching this week closely for signs of potential trouble.

 

[coolhand]

We got another choppy day with a mixed close. Once again, small caps are leading the pack.




We got a fresh all-time closing high on the DWCPF, while the S&P was down and has been dancing sideways over the past days. Momentum is rising on the DWCPF and is hinting at falling on the S&P, but I am not anticipating a ton of downside on the S&P. Historically, when small caps are doing well it bodes well for the economy and market overall. Still, some sectors may not fare well even in a bull market.



Breadth is still stretching to the upside and remains bullish.

NAAIM came in more bulled up today and is now about as bullish I've ever seen them.

I remain bullish, especially for the DWCPF.

 

[FAAM]

Wow - THX for the update info Mr. CH! I'm conservative investing wise these days (close to retiring) and uncomfortable generally with the prices of equities & potential bubble(s) these days... yet was going to perhaps IFT more to equities but missed the deadline this morning. I read the market it so bullish in recent years, now and likely more for future due to the FED, liquidity pumping -- no where else to put $s to try to make some capital gains these days.

 

[coolhand]

The NAAIM reading seems really bullish.

Yes. It's up there. Looks like the trend will remain to the upside.

 

[Happy_Trails]

The NAAIM reading seems really bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The market was mixed today, trading up and down through the day.




No changes to the charts. Market character has not changed, so the trend obviously remains up.



Cumulative breadth dipped on the day, but remains bullish.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The DWCPF hit a fresh all-time high today, tacking on about 1.5%. The S&P closed slightly above the neutral line.




While the S&P didn't follow the DWCPF higher today, it's still biased to the upside. Momentum is pointing up on both charts, but the DWCPF has been leading for some time now.



Cumulative breadth remains very bullish.

The indicators haven't changed. They are bullish, so I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

It was a negative day for the S&P 500 and a neutral day for the DWCPF. The action changed nothing.




Price remains quite elevated on both charts. Momentum is still pointed up.



Cumulative breadth fell a bit today, but remains bullish.

It may be uncomfortable holding stocks for some folks right now, given current events, but the indicators are what matters and they still point up. This remains a bull market until it isn't. If the smart money backs off, so will I, but they are pretty solidly bullish as of last Thursday.

I remain bullish.