coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Yes, NAAIM is almost unchanged from last week. They certainly do not seemed concerned by the current bout of weakness. Sometimes we have to endure some losses to eventually move ahead. It's a bit unnerving though, given how far this market has climbed.

I am remaining bullish for now.

 

[rangerray]

NAAIM only dropped from 110 to 108, so I am hoping this is just a short correction before resuming an upward trend. Staying calm and riding it out...

I am staying put as well, hoping the market reacts like is has the last few times.

 

[flalaw97]

NAAIM only dropped from 110 to 108, so I am hoping this is just a short correction before resuming an upward trend. Staying calm and riding it out...

 

[coolhand]

Good evening CH, am I seeing things or do your charts from February 23, 2020 look eerily similar to today's? Your commentary also sounds similar which was followed by your ominous warning on the 24th about a switch being flipped. Any thoughts on history repeating? On a personal note, I hope that your family problems from a year ago resolved themselves for the better.

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Interesting comparison. Very similar to a year ago. As I've said in the past, we don't want to get complacent about the gains. Even NAAIM realizes that this party is not going to go on forever. But, they also realize you don't make money sitting on the sidelines (or shorting) when the market is moving higher. I would not be surprised if a top of some sort is approaching, but it's very hard to predict.

 

[crommie]

Good evening CH, am I seeing things or do your charts from February 23, 2020 look eerily similar to today's? Your commentary also sounds similar which was followed by your ominous warning on the 24th about a switch being flipped. Any thoughts on history repeating? On a personal note, I hope that your family problems from a year ago resolved themselves for the better.

Last week, the market pulled back. The market has been fighting early weakness at the open of late, but so far the technical damage is nil.

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The S&P fell almost 1.25% on the week, while the DWCPF only lost about 0.3%. The charts still look quite healthy.

View attachment 45472

Breadth dipped, but it remains bullish.

The CBOE closed bearish on Friday. That means selling pressure may bleed into Monday. TRIN and TRINQ were flat (neutral). NAAIM remains very bullish, so this weakness is not likely to last or do any serious technical damage.

Monday looks bearish, but I am looking for a turn back up at any time. I remain bullish.

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[coolhand]

The bears tried to take the market down today, and while they had some success it was limited. Small caps got hit hard early, but the bulls countered with buying pressure; erasing about half of the losses on the DWCPF by the close. The bulls also managed to bring price back near the neutral line on the S&P.




Overall, we have limited damage on the charts. I would argue we don't really have any if we allow the market to breath a bit. Today was an exhale. However, I don't know if we have a bottom either, so the downside pressure may not be over just yet.



Cumulative breadth struggled a bit again today, but it's really holding up fairly well and does remain bullish; albeit under pressure.

NAAIM reports tomorrow, so we'll see if they are still as bullish now as they were a week ago. Till then, I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

CH looks like some more selling in tech and S fund down quite a bit now.
This is probably healthy for consolidation? I hope so.


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Given the huge gains that the S fund has had, I would expect that when any selling does happen (like now) that the losses would be healthy too. We'll get another NAAIM update tomorrow, but they were buying with both hands last week.

 

[ToddB]

CH looks like some more selling in tech and S fund down quite a bit now.
This is probably healthy for consolidation? I hope so.


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[coolhand]

The market had another somewhat volatile and choppy day to start the new trading week.




This time, the bulls came up short, but not by much. But really, some measure of a pullback is needed, though this is pretty shallow for a potential pullback. Perhaps the selling isn't done.



Breadth continues to track sideways, but remains bullish.

Futures are modestly lower this evening. We may see more of the same for Wednesday's action.

I remain bullish overall, but anticipate selling in the very short term.

 

[nasa1974]

Thanks CH,

Always informative.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls ended Friday and the week in positive territory. The DWCPF continues to lead the way.




It was a bit of a roller coaster on Friday, but the bulls pushed price higher by the close. In fact, price rallied rather hard in the final minutes of Friday's trading session. Momentum is still positive. We can also see that price remains well above the 50 dma on both charts.



Cumulative breadth has been largely sideways for a few trading days now, but the signal is still bullish.

The TSP Talk sentiment survey saw a drop in bullishness and now more neutral that bullish. However, NAAIM is very bulled up heading into the new week.

Futures are positive (so far) this evening. We may be in for more of the same boring upward bias .

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The market was choppy again today, but this time it manged to remain on the positive side at the close.




Price was up only marginally on the S&P today, but fared better on the DWCPF with almost a 0.5% gain. Momentum has gone flat on the S&P and the DWCPF, but both remain on the positive side. There is a toppy feel to this action, but this market has been very deceptive in the past.



Breadth also looks toppy, but remains bullish.

The big news (always on Thursday), is that NAAIM got bulled up once again. We could still see some weakness in the short term given the toppy looking charts, but with the smart money as bulled up they are then any downside we get is likely going to be limited. I really looks like risk remains to the upside.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The latest NAAIM reading shows that they spiked much higher again (bullish). Apparently, they see little risk to being in stocks.

 

[coolhand]

The string of gains was broken to day, but not by much. Trading was up and down, often around the neutral line.




It isn't much of a pullback, which makes me think we may have more weakness in the short term. Momentum is starting to weaken a bit; especially on the S&P. Nothing dramatic, certainly, but the market may be topping for the moment. The problem is, the bottom may not be far off either (should the bears manage to keep some pressure on). This is one bull that really does need to be respected even as we try not to be complacent about the gains.



Cumulative breadth leveled off today. It's still very bullish, but is also showing possible fatigue.

The market is due for some measure of consolidation, so I'd not be surprised with more weakness in the short term. Maybe we get it, maybe the bulls hold off the bears for a while longer yet, we'll have to see. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

I remain bullish, but anticipate weakness in the short term.

 

[coolhand]

The market started out the trading session on the weak side today, but the bulls fought back to bring price near to or over the neutral line over the course of the day.




The DWCPF notched its 7th straight winning session, while the S&P saw its string of 6 wins broken, but not by all that much. The action was not particularly notable in my opinion. Some selling was due, but we see how liquidity appeared to send price much higher prior to noon EST.



Breadth was up again and remains bullish.

Not much else to add this evening. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls picked up where they left off last week with more impressive gains to start a new week.




Does anyone remember that bump in the road a little over a week ago? Just what was that all about really? Now, we have 6 up days in a row on the charts with fresh all-time highs each of the past 3 days. The DWCPF is back in overbought territory again. Momentum continues to rise and volume is only average. Where are the bears (not that I really care)?



Look at cumulative breadth. It's going vertical again.

I know many were pounding the table that this market was toast (I was leaning that way for a bit too), but we can see that the bull was only wounded. Now he's mad. I wonder how far this train is going?

I am now bullish (from modestly so).

 

[coolhand]

The bulls put up big gains last week, up 4.67% on the C fund and up 7.52% on the S fund.




Both charts sport fresh all-time highs. Momentum is moving higher.



Breadth is starting to stretch it out to the upside. The chart is obviously bullish.

The TSP Talk sentiment survey saw participants get bulled up this week after being neutral last week. NAAIM is modestly bullish, but perhaps more important is that they are not showing much inclination to short the market. Just don't forget they are not as bullish as they've been, so we don't want to get complacent.

How high can this market go? That's a question many traders are wondering. It's all about liquidity and we're hearing that liquidity is being injected into the market (to this point). How long it plays out is a guessing game, so we might as well take advantage of the rally while we can. I remain modestly bullish.

 

[coolhand]

I suppose we got our confirmation today as to what the market's intent was. Fresh closing all-time highs on the S&P and DWCPF both.




Momentum is rising. There is a chance that the breakout is a head fake, but that would be a hard sell in this bull market (no pun intended).



Cumulative breadth is rising quickly and remains bullish.

NAAIM came in a bit less bullish today with an overall reading of what I would call modestly bullish. That's just north of neutral. They are generally not shorting very much (financial suicide), but they are not nearly as bullish as they've been, which tells me that some of these money managers are harboring some reservations. Still, they are bullish overall.

I am shifting modestly bullish myself (from neutral), but as you've heard me say a number of times in the past, I am not complacent. Take the gains while they are offering them, but don't get married to your position. This is not a normal market.

 

[coolhand]

NAAIM came in a bit less bullish today. I would say they are modestly bullish overall. They are not shorting the market much, but they are not buying with both hands either. There seems to be some degree of skepticism among them, but they are acknowledging that the bull remains alive (that's why they are still long overall).

 

[coolhand]

The bulls pushed price higher today for the 3rd day in a row. The action was up and down and the gains on the day were somewhat modest.




Price on the DWCPF closed in the area of its previous all-time high (give or take). Price on the S&P has yet to hit its previous peak. So, we haven't started a new up-leg yet, which means resistance is holding for now.



Breadth ticked higher and remains bullish.

It still remains to be seen if new highs are coming or not. Why should there be any doubt? It was one thing to predict a bull run in mid-November. I largely saw it coming as did NAAIM. I don't have the same confidence now, though I'm not doubting necessarily that it can't happen. I need more evidence. NAAIM reports tomorrow. Let's see where the smart money stands and what futures does heading into tomorrow's open.

I remain neutral.