coolhand's Account Talk

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I have a sell signal this morning, but it's only for today. Anticipate some serious follow-through from the action late last week.

Comment from Trader's Talk this morning:

"The $-weighted SPX P/C was high on Friday and darned little else was.

It foretells a planned moved down. This has been pretty good. I think we could see 786 but that's a loose guess.

I'd also be open to a sharp reversal after the stops are taken out."
 
Not sure if I got my IFT in on time, but 25/75 CS. Looking for a bullish move as support has been holding. Volume is light because stimulus has not yet hit the market and bearishness is keeping upside contained. For now anyway. With the right news this market could take off. Sentiment is supportive of that. I would not expect a major rally to hold, but I'm taking a longer term view of the stimulus argument pushing us to the upside.

Not an easy decision here and obviously has risks. It's a contrarian move.
 
coolhand said:
Not sure if I got my IFT in on time, but 25/75 CS. Looking for a bullish move as support has been holding. Volume is light because stimulus has not yet hit the market and bearishness is keeping upside contained. For now anyway. With the right news this market could take off. Sentiment is supportive of that. I would not expect a major rally to hold, but I'm taking a longer term view of the stimulus argument pushing us to the upside.

Not an easy decision here and obviously has risks. It's a contrarian move.
Click to expand...

Good Luck Coolhand !
 
I noticed the MACD divergence, and the fact that the Nasadq is acting better than the S&P, but I think we may be hitting a wall. If we can get above 850 and hold for a day or two, I'll get on board. But I think there is trouble brewing, right here, right now. See my blog today, and comments I posted. http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=80
 
tsptalk said:
I noticed the MACD divergence, and the fact that the Nasadq is acting better than the S&P, but I think we may be hitting a wall. If we can get above 850 and hold for a day or two, I'll get on board. But I think there is trouble brewing, right here, right now. See my blog today, and comments I posted. http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=80
Click to expand...

I hear you Tom. Problem is, seems like everyone is calling for a move lower. The bears are beside themselves that we haven't hit a new low since November. You know what happens when everyone expects the same scenario. :rolleyes:
 
I think it's interesting that the sentiment surveys remain overly bearish, yet the put/call ratios are overly bullish. I'm not sure what to make of this except to think that what people are saying, may not be what they are actually doing.
 
tsptalk said:
I think it's interesting that the sentiment surveys remain overly bearish, yet the put/call ratios are overly bullish. I'm not sure what to make of this except to think that what people are saying, may not be what they are actually doing.
Click to expand...
Maybe everybody is thinking a quick bite, then fast exit and wait for the thud?

Lady
 
tsptalk said:
I noticed the MACD divergence, and the fact that the Nasadq is acting better than the S&P, but I think we may be hitting a wall. If we can get above 850 and hold for a day or two, I'll get on board. But I think there is trouble brewing, right here, right now. See my blog today, and comments I posted. http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=80
Click to expand...

Tom,

You have been correct today so far. S&P bounce down from 851.
Now we will wait for the November test. Something is going to happen soon.
 
It is so cool to me when someone calls resistance at a certain level and then the market bounces of that number......mathmatics is a wonderful thing!!
 
Agree. It gives us a sense of validity in our technical analysis, rather than the market just being random.
 
tsptalk said:
Jobs report?
Click to expand...

Friday could be the big day......but I really think that the "Stimulus package" will cause a selloff next week when the Senate starts dragging their feet. I don't think BHO will get much "urgency" from the Senators. The sky is falling senario that Paulson pulled back in November is not going to work this time......at least I hope they don't rush this pork through without a proper grilling.:nuts:
I want to sell my remaining stock funds but don't want to lose an IFT. I think the IFT's will be quite valuable for the next few months.

I agree with Capechem.....Tom - great call on the market today!
 
I'm sorry, but I have to call this pennant pattern a fade pattern. The boys are going to wake up one of these days in the near future and blow out all the stops, making a retest 'inevitable'. Or at least it will appear inevitable. I have to believe the Smart Money is looking to go long here with a bailout almost sure to happen on the horizon.

SKF is up against resistance after filling the gap and appears ST overbought. There's a strong following in the financials as everyone is looking to plow in on the short side again, but I think the smart money is moving to other avenues at this point as that party is being put on hold for the time being.

I think this market is going to have to move higher without the financials this time, but any boost from financials is going to help. The whole world is geared up for a break to the downside here but this time is not different when folks say they will buy the retest. The money won't come into stocks until we move higher because it will be 'safer then'.

I don't know. I see that uptrend line since Nov and anyone who bought around there in a few ETF's have nice profits on hand right now.
 
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