coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

The bulls had another great week last week. Both the C and I funds posted gains of more than 2% and the S fund almost doubled that at over 4%.




Price on the S&P closed near the top of its trading range. We can see that there are higher lows along the way, so an upside breakout seems to be in the cards. Price on the DWCPF continues an almost relentless push to the upside and it looking incredibly bullish. Many are concerned that this can't last, but trying to time market exhaustion is not an easy thing to do; especially as we enter the most bullish time of the year. As of last Thursday, we certainly don't see the smart money (NAAIM) shying away from being long.



Cumulative breadth on the NYSE continues to impress and remains quite bullish.

The TSP Talk sentiment survey came in heavily bulled up. Don't let that scare you. We have seen our sentiment bulled up for weeks (in the past) without the market diving. And we have NAAIM on our side as well.

So, what would Forrest Gump say about this market? Maybe "Silly is as silly does"?

I still highly suspect that this market will get silly to the upside. I wish I could predict that, but I don't have a crystal ball. Just intuition based on what I am seeing.

 

[coolhand]

NAAIM remains largely unchanged from last week. They are very bullish. Risk remains to the upside; especially smaller caps (S fund).

 

[coolhand]

Is this rally real yet? I said a few days ago that my gut said that the market has the potential to get silly to the upside. I'm not saying it's silly yet, but the market seems to be working on it.




Price on the DWCPF hit another all-time high. The S&P hit a fresh closing high. That index may be finally getting ready to break out to the upside.



Look at cumulative breadth. This chart is working on silly too.

And we aren't even it the most seasonally positive time of year yet, though we are approaching it. Can "seasonally positive" get more positive than what the DWCPF is already doing? What if it can?

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Isn’t Black Friday a good time to be in the market?

Historically, the market tends to be weak heading into Thanksgiving and then gets bullish starting on Black Friday.

 

[Bill3438]

Isn’t Black Friday a good time to be in the market?

 

[coolhand]

The bulls began the new week in positive fashion as price continued to rise.




This time, the S&P joined the party, but the DWCPF continues to dominate the action was larger gains. The problem for the S&P is that price is still stuck in a range, while the DWCPF is hitting fresh all-time highs.



Breadth is also hitting fresh all-time highs and is looking quite bullish. Ordinarily I'd expect a pullback on this kind of upside action, but the uneven market and other factors tell me that the bulls may continue to probe higher for the time being. In other words, I'm not looking for much as far the downside goes. Not with NAAIM all bulled up. Until something changes, I'm looking for more of the same.

I remain bullish on the DWCPF and neutral on the S&P 500.

 

[nasa1974]

Oxford University says their vaccine is 70% effective and could be 90% if tweaked a little bit. Good news for the market.

 

[coolhand]

The market was mixed last week, with major averages posting gains and losses depending on the index. We are seeing what appears to be stock rotation going from larger caps to smaller caps, but that's just what I see on a superficial level. I am not looking "under the hood" so-to-speak as I like to keep my commentary fairly simple.




In the loss column you have the S&P 500, which shed less than 1% last week. On the positive side you have the DWCPF, which posted a weekly gains well above 3%. It's a tale of 2 indexes right now. I tend to believe that this disparity may continue for the time being.



Cumulative breadth remains bullish.

The latest TSP Talk sentiment survey shows a small increase in bullishness, but I still see the reading as neutral overall. We have a bullish NAAIM reading heading into the new week.

I expect the market to continue acting much like it has of late. That is, the DWCPF is likely to outpace the S&P in the short term. I'll take it a week at a time and see how it plays out.

I remain bullish (S Fund). I am neutral on the C Fund.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls turned the market around today after a bout of weakness on Wednesday. Small caps continued leading large caps.




We can see that price closed at another all-time high on the DWCPF, while price failed to recoup Wednesday's losses on the S&P 500. Momentum continues to rise on the DWCPF and remains flat on the S&P.



Cumulative breadth hit another all-time high on the NYSE and remains bullish.

NAAIM saw an increase in bullishness and is now quite bullish overall.

Stock rotation continues to favor smaller companies. I do suspect that the S fund will continue to outpace the C fund for the time being.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

NAAIM came in more bulled up. Risk remains to the upside.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

FBN "After the Bell" reported the drop occurred due to additional State closures/restrictions imposed.

 

[coolhand]

The market was doing well until about mid-day when price weakness began and then continued into close, picking up some steam on the way down. I cautioned yesterday that while I was bullish the market could pullback at any time. So we got a pullback today, but it remains to be seen if there's more downside in store in the short term.




The S&P 500 lost more than 1% and fell back to its recent short-term trading range. Price on the DWCPF fared better than it's counterpart and lost less than 0.4%. The S&P continues to lag the DWCPF. While upside momentum has still not turned on the DWCPF, it has gone flat on the S&P.



Breadth was weak on the day for the NYSE, but it still remains bullish.

I did not see any particular headline today that was used as a reason for the selling, but the market doesn't always need one. Tomorrow, we get our weekly NAAIM reading, so we'll see how much the smart money has shifted their collective stance on the market.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The market had a mixed close today, with the S&P 500 pulling back modestly while the DWCPF tacked on more gains.




Price on the S&P 500 struggled today, but still closed not far off its previous high. Price on the DWCPF hit another all-time closing high. That chart looks particularly bullish. Today's rally did push the DWCPF into overbought territory as indicated by RSI. I don't consider that to be a big issue with this particular index in the short term.



Breadth ticked a bit higher today and remains bullish.

There does appear to be more stock rotation going on in the market. Historically, when small caps lead it's a bullish sign. But it's still too early to completely embrace that possibility. We could get a pullback at any time, but the trend obviously remains up.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Today's positive action produced fresh closing highs on both the S&P 500 and DWCPF. It's getting real for the bulls. The next up-leg may be in progress (maybe).




Both charts got more bullish today. Momentum is still rising. The DWCPF is near overbought territory (RSI). I would not get overly concerned with "overbought" just yet. The market may be just beginning to breakout after a short period of volatility.



Breadth is screaming to the upside right now. I can't ignore that any more than I can ignore a bullish NAAIM reading.

I have a hunch that this market could get silly to the upside. I can't predict it, but I would not be surprised with a rally that has even the bulls shaking their heads. I'm looking forward to seeing how this actually plays out.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

headlines? are we talking about the highly anticipated PFE vaccine ph III trial 2 month safety checkpoint data to be released next week, or something else?

Medically, 2 months shouldn't mean much (typical trial monitoring is 2 years) but the market bit similar duration effectiveness data hook, line, and sinker, and that's also going to be the basis for any EUA application. Whether people get vaccinated, and it actually works (or fails), remains to be seen.

Unless POTUS is a screaming fibber on this, I tend to think this data will meet the hype, and the market will react again, at least briefly.

Sent from my SM-A115U using Tapatalk

Headlines can mean anything. There is a lot going on besides the Vax.

 

[amoeba]

headlines? are we talking about the highly anticipated PFE vaccine ph III trial 2 month safety checkpoint data to be released next week, or something else?

Medically, 2 months shouldn't mean much (typical trial monitoring is 2 years) but the market bit similar duration effectiveness data hook, line, and sinker, and that's also going to be the basis for any EUA application. Whether people get vaccinated, and it actually works (or fails), remains to be seen.

Unless POTUS is a screaming fibber on this, I tend to think this data will meet the hype, and the market will react again, at least briefly.

Sent from my SM-A115U using Tapatalk

 

[coolhand]

Friday's action saw the bulls rally the market to cap a great week. All 3 TSP stock funds were up more than 2%. And so far, all 3 TSP stock funds are up close to 10% or more in the month of November and we are only mid-month.




The action may have had a bearish feel to it earlier in the week, but the charts themselves are not bearish. The brief turbulence was unusual and many (including myself) were questioning whether the rally had peaked. While the market hasn't exactly begun another leg higher since the peak from last Monday, price on both charts has closed near its closing peaks. Momentum is still rising.



Breadth turned right back up after slipping on Thursday and closed at a fresh all-time high.

The TSP Talk survey came in neutral this week. We are not quite as optimistic as NAAIM, which came in bulled up.

My indicators remain bullish, which includes the smart money. I want to see price clear (close) above the intra-day peaks from last Monday. With the smart money bulled up again, the chances are good that this market will trend higher. I would only caution that headlines may still cause continued intermittent turbulence, so we have to be prepared for that.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The market fell today, but price remains in a multi-day range over the past week. Coiling for a move higher?




We can see from the charts that price has stalled. Volume has fallen off since earlier this week. Momentum is still rising, but weakening a bit.



Breadth fell, but still remains bullish.

The latest NAAIM reading shows this smart money getting bulled up again. Whatever caused them to go neutral last week has apparently passed. One of the main takeaways was that they never showed much inclination to get bearish. It hasn't been easy to figure out this market, even for these money managers who were bullish a few weeks ago when the market took a dive. That was unusual, but it can happen. Generally speaking, I want to be aligned with them more often than not.

I am going from modestly bullish to simply bullish.

 

[coolhand]

I guess we need a down day. Since the end of October the "C" fund is up $4.12, the "S" fund is up $5.43 and the "I" fund is up $3.48.

I said something along those lines the other day. Market action (and associated "news") seemed to have a bearish feel to it on some days (understandably so), but taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture (longer term vice short term), price is doing fine. There are those that do want the market driven lower, but then there are those who do not. Who has had overall control? The bulls.

And the smart money (NAAIM) is betting on it to continue, but we also have to remember that weakness can still manifest even if price goes higher as part of the trend.

 

[nasa1974]

I guess we need a down day. Since the end of October the "C" fund is up $4.12, the "S" fund is up $5.43 and the "I" fund is up $3.48.