coolhand
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 380
Don't misunderstand me guys, I'm not taking a position on it. What I'm wondering is how the market will react to it. It's not what I think that matters, it's what the market thinks.
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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
Don't misunderstand me guys, I'm not taking a position on it. What I'm wondering is how the market will react to it. It's not what I think that matters, it's what the market thinks.
350zCommTech
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 71
XL-entLady
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 48
Depends on how many financiers are listening to their accountants. In the accounting world that is a huge difference.
Lady
coolhand
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 380
That's what I gathered from some info I read on the net. There's still a lot of unknowns regarding the "stimulus" package that has yet to be revealed, including the mark to market proposal.
This market is coiled for something. I gotta agree with Tom about that. It just doesn't feel right. But I keep looking for that curve ball the market likes to throw, which keeps me from getting too bearish, because that's the most prevalent scenario (bearish) out there. Why we haven't returned to the November lows after all the bad news we've seen since then really makes me wonder.
coolhand
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 380
Today's market is showing the same set-up I saw last week. SPX 800 is in the cards again today as futures are dropping. I actually like the set-up here. Take out the stops below and run it higher. However, if the volume is high to the downside I would be more inclined to think lower prices are in the cards. There's still a big rally coming though;the question is when?
coolhand
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 380
justbizness45
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 16
coolhand
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 380
coolhand
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 380
I needed to take another break Tom. I'm still sitting tight at 25/75 CS.
I don't care about the short term losses. I'm just a little disgusted with the market as a whole, and that includes our current administrations responses to it. Rick Santelli's rant struck a chord with me.
As far as the market goes, it's still very dicey. Sentiment is still mixed, but not overly bearish, which may be the hook that keeps the bears pushing their luck.
But there's still a lot of unknowns. Christopher Dodd's comment about nationalizing the banks is some serious bad juju to Wall Street. The administration may be denying they would go that far, but after all the events of the past few months I wouldn't trust anything they say. :notrust:
The latest news on RBS has the potential to push the market down further come Monday. http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/latestnews/Royal-Bank-ready-to-go.5004955.jp
I'm hoping for some measure of a rally early this week, but I'm not confident of anything right now.
coolhand
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 380
Washington Calling the Signals
Last Update: 23-Feb-09 08:08 ET
http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...me=Investor&ArticleId=NS20090223081002PageOne
The current leaning of the futures market points to a modestly higher open for the broader market. That's nice to see for many participants given the prevailing trend, yet it is still little consolation given the scope of recent losses.
Reportedly, the news that the government might boost its stake in Citigroup (C) to as much as 40% by converting its preferred shares into common stock is driving the early buying interest.
Such talk is quelling concerns that festered Friday about a total nationalization of the bank. It's cold comfort really, but when you've been experiencing sub-zero temperatures for an extended length of time, even 20 degrees can feel warm for a bit.
Bank of America (BAC) is getting a sympathetic lift in pre-market action that is helping to prop up the futures market.
There isn't a lot of other specific corporate news of note this morning. Once again, it seems all headlines of import are being exported from Washington.
President Obama discussed over the weekend an aim to cut the budget deficit in half by the end of his first term in office; Treasury Secretary Geithner is supposedly going to announce more details this week with respect to his bank rescue plan; and there is a report that outside advisers to the U.S. Treasury have talked about lining up $40 billion in bankruptcy financing for General Motors (GM) and Chrysler should they need it.
With the government changing the investment landscape on what seems to be a weekly basis, the adverbial hurdle to investing grows higher as such intervention makes it difficult to determine where, when, why and how to invest in this environment.
It will be a good day when the market doesn't have to constantly turn its attention to Washington to get its directional signals.
Today it appears as if Washington is providing a good vibe, but in the grand scheme of things, we wouldn't consider this a good day for investors.
coolhand
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 380
Our Recovery Plan Is an ‘Obamination’
By Jon Kraushar
Communications Consultant
http://foxforum.blogs.foxnews.com/2009/02/23/kraushar_obama_stimulus/
I believe the president’s recovery plan is an “Obamanation.” What do I mean by that? Namely the president’s plan is misdirected change. No matter how good President Obama’s intentions are — sad to say — his policies aren’t right because his principles are wrong.
They rouse the very principles that caused the American Revolution, beginning with resentment against an imperious government that overtaxes, overspends, over-regulates and overrules any dissent. The $787-billion stimulus bill was rammed through Congress so quickly that lawmakers (and the public) didn’t even have the time to read its entire 1,079 pages.
Because principles have consequences the president needs to better explain why his various bailouts punish the prudent, reward the reckless, and flagrantly violate the principle that people must live with the consequences of their personal decisions.
Furthermore, the stimulus and another trillion-and-a-half dollars in other government economic “rescue” efforts (for banks, Wall Street firms, automakers, insurers and all the people who can’t pay their mortgages) stretches to the breaking point the moral and economic code most Americans believe in. Those who have acted responsibly, paid their bills, saved their money and followed the law are bailing out those who haven’t. If one were to update the battle cry of the colonists who protested “no taxation without representation,” today it would be “no stimulation with so much confiscation.”
President Obama held a “Fiscal Responsibility Summit” at the White House today and he will continue to make his case tomorrow night when he speaks to a Joint session of Congress. On Thursday, the president will release his 2010 budget.
Because principles have consequences the president needs to better explain why his various bailouts punish the prudent, reward the reckless, and flagrantly violate the principle that people must live with the consequences of their personal decisions.
Delaying The Day Of Reckoning Delays The Days of Repair
Starting with President Bush’s “Troubled Asset Relief Program” and continuing with its renaming as President Obama’s “American Recovery and Reinvestment Act,” there has been a pattern of delaying the day of reckoning for banks, financial institutions, and automakers that need to be cleansed of their toxic holdings, toxic leaders and toxic operating procedures.
Just as alcoholics and drug abusers have to face up to their addictions, go “cold turkey,” and radically revise their ways, so do ravaged enterprises need to clean out their systems, by declaring bankruptcy, getting reorganized or even sold. You only prolong the agony and damage by subsidizing sick behavior. Perhaps tomorrow the president will tell us how his recovery plan will address this.
If You’re Going To Shoot, Shoot Straight
The latest “silver bullet” cure making the rounds of some economic and political thinkers is to nationalize many of the nation’s banks, including giants like Citigroup and Bank of America, even if the nationalization is “temporary,” as was done in Sweden in the 1990’s — when overleveraged banks were broken up and sold to the private sector.
Whatever cure the president prescribes, it needs to be grounded in the principle that it is better to face reality, own up to failure, take the bitter medicine and get the patients on the road to independence based on their human potential rather than stimulate dependence on government, confiscating ever more money and resources from those who are productive in society.
Beware “Eurosclerosis”
In the bailouts so far, the thrifty have been tapped to bail out the thriftless. This is not only financial engineering; it is social engineering. It suggests turning America into “old Europe” where the welfare state reigns, there is widespread nationalization—from health care to major industries—taxes are high, growth is almost non-existent and innovation, creativity, enterprise and anyone with brains and guts is emigrating. Does America really want to catch “Eurosclerosis”?
Warped values are harder to fix than broken economies. Actually, values and economies that are bent out of shape both need the same cure: tough love. People or businesses that have made bad decisions need to bear the burden of failure, clean up their balance sheets, clean up their acts and transition to reduced circumstances for a while until they can reorganize, restructure and act responsibly. Seizing money from the responsible to pay the debts of the irresponsible isn’t acting like Robin Hood; it is Robbin’ Like A Hood. People who have saved, paid their bills and played by the rules shouldn’t be exploited. That’s un-American.
Take The Road Less Taken
Looking around the world, the economic road less taken is the tough love road. It is the road of “creative destruction,” where businesses go bankrupt or are sold to make way for creative, innovative alternatives. Thus, horses and buggies gave way to automobiles and typewriters gave way to computers. (Note that private enterprise—not the government—brought those breakthroughs.)
The dangerous road—which seems to be Obama’s road—is “state construction,” where it is believed that the government must step in to replace individuals and private enterprise, presuming to be the engine of economic innovation, stimulation and growth. Communism and socialism tried this and both failed.
When Government Becomes A Sugar Daddy Do You Know What That Makes Citizens?
Obama’s stimulus is predicated on the government’s ability to spend its way out of an economic crisis; in effect becoming a “sugar daddy” to the economy. But if many Americans are reduced to being “sugar babies,” supported by government money taken from taxpayers, then being a parasite rather than being productive becomes a way of life. American exceptionalism dies—a casualty of good intentions gone horribly awry.
We Can Still Course Correct
Fortunately, America has corrected its course before and emerged from near catastrophe. Will we have to wait for the 2010 elections to try what worked in the Reagan years: tax cuts, Federal Reserve discipline and a reliance on the private sector?
If we revive Reagan’s principles, but also cut out unnecessary spending on pork and throw in better government oversight than we’ve had in the past, maybe we can turn “Obaminations” into “transformations.” That would be “change we can believe in.”
CountryBoy
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 48
Great article and to the point. I just can't phathom how anyone can dispute his points, unless of course if they are sugar babies. Thanks for posting it Cool.
CBThat is a great article...
"We Can Still Course Correct
Fortunately, America has corrected its course before and emerged from near catastrophe. Will we have to wait for the 2010 elections to try what worked in the Reagan years: tax cuts, Federal Reserve discipline and a reliance on the private sector?"
...but what will America look like by 2010?
coolhand
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 380
Very interesting observation here regarding the velocity of money. Scribbler, would you care to give us your take on it?
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=102053&st=0Similar threads
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